LibertyBell

That arctic blast was amazing, the first true arctic blast in our new house which we moved into in May 1984 (after another very cold winter with a couple of back to back moderate 4-5 inch snowfalls...I think those were in February.) I just distinctly remember an 8.6" snowfall occuring sometime during the first winter in our house that only changed to drizzle at the very end. I wonder where we can find the top snowfalls from the 1980s, that 8.6" snowfall has to be in there somewhere. There was also a 7" incher where I got locked out of my house because the door was frozen shut-- I think that was in January....the 8.6" measurement was at Central Park and the 7" measurement was for a different storm at LGA. Also consider that even though 1983-84 and 1984-85 had periods of historic cold from time to time....they also had winter 70 to even 75 degree temps at other times lol.

Was Dec 1984 the famous 8.6" snowstorm that was supposed to change to rain but only changed to drizzle at the end? I remember that well.

We're also seeing widespread east coast sunny day coastal flooding so the sea level flooding thing is real and already happening. That's why we're spending trillions of dollars on sea walls (even in red states), like Florida and South Carolina. They know what's going to happen. We're doing that here in NY too. And they have already started to move people away from islands off of the Louisiana coast and relocate them.

Neutrals (especially after la ninas) are the worst though. And la ninas after el ninos are the best.

It's raining on the outer cape and snowing on the inside and northern part of the cape....very narrow area of snow lol. I think coastal Maine is also going to get rain while central Maine gets snow. Very weird for an offshore storm, but that's how narrow and marginal the cold is now.

woah 1999-2000 is also a match for temps? I did not know this when I posted my comparison to that season. I know late Jan 2000 had a mid atlantic snowstorm, but I seem to remember there was also something in March? Is that correct, Don? Or maybe that was 1999 lol?

We always seem to get one of these renegade retrograding offshore snow storms to tease us in bad winters lol-- what is keeping it from going farther west?

So basically it's from Jan 23 to the end of the month we have a chance and then after February ends?

So a completely different pattern out west too (which is where these rainers are coming from.) Actually sounds more like 1989-90 and 1997-98 lol. more like a strong el nino in the beginning and a la nina to close it out.

Have to throw out some of those winters-- 2015-16 was a very strong el nino, 1965-66 was also an el nino, I'm tossing the 1800s winters either way lol....so all we're left with is 1999-00 and a la nina (but second year not third year), but the only season really comparable to this one. That year had a surprise snowstorm in late January for the mid atlantic that changed to rain here. And that is the timeframe to watch this season too.

what keeps it from getting farther west?

So basically Jan 20-31?

1989-90 has been reincarnated lol Now we need to see if we can get a reincarnation of 1989-90 followed by a reincarnation of 2001-02 for next winter lol.

It would be interesting if we could challenge records from 1972-73 and 2001-02 for snowfall and warmth. I'm kind of disappointed we had that meaningless dry cold in December now. It probably means we can't beat any mild winter records but snowfall records are definitely in play on the low end lol. Are you confident about an el nino for next winter? Wouldn't it be more interesting if we somehow pulled off another la nina-- a 4 year la nina is unprecedented in modern times. Or we could have a neutral which would be another bad winter most likely? 01-02 was a neutral after a three year la nina and we saw how that turned out lol. I wonder if it's ever happened that we went right from a three year la nina into an el nino or if going to neutral first is more common?

I also enjoyed the amazingly hot summers we had from 2010-13, I suppose the NW flow pattern also helped with that since we had downsloping and less of an oceanic impact on the east coast.

Yeah I don't find averages to be very scientific at all. The climate is dynamic and has been changing throughout history. Now it's more human influenced than it ever was before, but still "averages" don't sound scientific to me. I think we should use standard deviations instead.

My storm door was stuck and could not be opened lol-- I've never seen that much sleet before in my entire life. Sleet is 2:1 liquid equivalent right? So that would have been 3" of rain? Omg..... or 30" of snow like Jan 2016 was lol. Do you remember what VD 2007 was? Something like 4 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet with some freezing rain on top?

Something I remember that was often said about that season: "The first three weeks of April were colder than the first three weeks of January." I think it hit 70 on the 11 year anniversary of the January 1996 blizzard and yet did not hit 70 in the first three weeks of April lol. There was also a snow event in the south near Thanksgiving and again in April right down to the coast in the Carolinas. We had the Tax Day noreaster with snow in southern NJ. We did have two memorable wintry events -- VD 2007 and St Paddy's Day. Both were all frozen here, snow and sleet and freezing rain and long duration events.

There's a chance for a 2002 like pattern which I would love.

Nothing here since about noon, what does the radar look like for sw nassau?

the wind is sure blowing now....there was no snow in the afternoon and we just got a coating (T).

Yep, all complex animals have intuition, it's amazing really. I even read that trees in the Amazon control their own weather-- it's fascinating! Science papers were written on how they control nucleation..... About non thread the needle HECS snowstorms, I've always wondered how they happen.... like February 1978, February 1983, January 1996, PD 2 February 2003, January 2016 are the only ones I can think of offhand.....the other ones were thread the needle for the most part (even Boxing Day).

it also makes me think we should see stemwinding tropical systems too

I love seeing the snow and the swans!

It makes me wonder if this is how it sometimes snows (or drizzles) when you don't see anything on radar. Low level "under the radar"-- you often see this when it's very cold and you see these beautiful sparkly tiny snow crystals drifting down-- this happened a lot in February 2015. Another thing which could help precipitate is meteoric dust, which makes me wonder if precipitation is more likely just after meteor showers occur?