LibertyBell

Torch has to be 70 or higher. 50's is still just lukewarm at best.

Maybe in time for morning? I'd love to see that when the sun comes up

maybe these little guys will come back and fix things? from 1945 (two years before Roswell) https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/13/us/ufo-new-mexico-congress.html?smid=tw-share 4:24 AM The American public can reasonably expect to get some answers to questions that have been burning in the minds of millions of Americans for many years,” said Christopher Mellon, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for intelligence. “If nothing else, this should either clear up something that’s been a cloud hanging over the Air Force and Department of Defense for decades or it might lead in another direction, which could be truly incredible. There’s a lot at stake.”

had some hail too lol

Just like 2002

that sunset was gorgeous-- the sky was on fire!

Oh is that headed this way Don?

it's true but more in the mid to long range....I posted a PDF analysis on it several times.

I think we'll beat 2002 for earliest start to the growing season.

2005-06? Subtract the December event that only produced for a narrow area anyway....

also who the hell wants snow to rain?

1932 is so far ahead of everyone else, what exactly was going on that year? and two years later there was 1934-- crazy lol

the positive of a reliable bias is that it can be adjusted for in advance, correct?

This is likely a 10 day transitional period from a pseudo el nino pattern to more of a la nina pattern for February...this 10 day period is going to be the time to get something this winter...if we don't we will likely have less than 10" of snow this season....and even that is being generous.

It looks like models are consistently underestimating that western atlantic ridge as well as overestimating the amount of cold air we now get....figured both are connected to those steamy SST offshore.

more lawsuits incoming 1977....

We can't even talk about Antarctica retaining its ice anymore.

Antarctic sea ice also decreasing now.

It is especially if it's humid. Do you have any data for near Allentown? I spend a lot of my summers up there, and just north of there near Lehighton and Jim Thorpe.

I guess you'll get that convection more inland, we generally don't see that near the coast (very much like coastal Florida.)

That dry weather was spreading east last year. I think we are going towards more of an 80s type pattern, which is good, because it means less bugs. Looks like the Antarctic sea ice is also suffering now.

What-- last spring and the one before it were hot and dry (my favorite pattern).

No, the trend has been for warmer and drier less humid springs and summers and I expect that to continue

I'm thinking/hoping for a 2002 repeat

Yeah it reminds me of a farther east version of February 1989...a busted forecast of course. Back in the 80s and 90s we had a lot of blown forecasts when either the storm didn't go as far west as expected (more common) or went farther west (rare) and we got a positive bust. Sometimes (like in December 1989) they went too far west and we got a rainstorm in the middle of a very cold pattern lol.