LibertyBell

Sell these redneck states to Cuba and Mexico and be done with them.

What that does is create a pattern where you have to depend on one storm for most of your snow, a la 2015-16 or to a lesser extent last winter.

I love new paradigms (including in science), they force quick changes and revolutions, they're really a good thing because humans are prone to social inertia and resistance to change. Read what Kuhn had to say on new paradigms.

at this point you can't ignore what is going on in the rest of the world, this isn't an "unlucky" winter, it's happening all over the world.

Hey thanks for that. I downloaded that PDF! Now I have something for you-- I read this earlier today, and wow, it's amazing how deadly the poisonous gases from volcanoes can be even when they're not erupting! https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-history-and-mystery-of-russia-s-valley-of-death?utm_source=pocket-newtab

It looks like feast or famine winters are more common and the type of winter that might be most common would be one big snowstorm and the rest of the winter is mild.

I've seen this SE Ridge hang around regardless of the pattern. Weak el nino is actually better for New England, might need a high end moderate to strong here to make the SE Ridge a plus by hitting it with arctic air a la PD2 or Jan 2016 or Feb 1983.

It seems to be, it's been doing this in the summer too. I think going forward ENSO will matter much less as these warm NW Atlantic waters will create a permanent SE Ridge near our area.

I wonder how much these offensively warm NW Atlantic waters have to do with the RRSER (ridiculously resilient southeast ridge) and the stoppage of cold air reaching the east coast.

and the forecast temps for tomorrow have gone up

We see these stronger bermuda ridges in el ninos now too, not only that but we are seeing them every summer now taking the heat further north into new england and SE canada. It's disappointing to me because that means less heat for us on Long Island

this definitely is an 80s type hostile Pacific Back then it would get cold in between rainstorms...the only frozen I remember most years was frozen puddles lol.

The problem is the modeling always seems to be good when it shows no snow....why is that I wonder?

Your puppy came home...did he get lost before that? That's rough man.

That gradient will very likely be north of our area.

Hopefully NYC projects to greenify the city will mute some of this UHI (the goal is to make NYC 30% green by 2030.) We have a lot of rooftop gardens and do urban farming in the city now for better health, We need to get rid of all this ugly concrete-- once and for all!

I will say that back in the 90s I made some observations about why it seems to snow more to our south and to our north. NY is in a bad position for storm tracks, there is a storm track to our south and another storm track to our north. For us to get snowstorms we need both to phase (and thus create coastals), so we're much more dependent on coastals than either those to our north and or those to our south. Now, as that southern storm track shifts north we can get hit by those storms, but that adds another complication-- we have the ocean to our south, while the people to our south have an ocean to their east. That actually makes us much more sensitive to changeovers than those to our south would be with a relatively similar storm track. The moral of the story is, if you have the ocean to your south, you'll get screwed before those who have the ocean to their east will. Same is true in the summer, if you're a fan of extreme heat (and I am) you don't want the ocean to your south, you'd rather have it to your east so the ocean doesn't taint big heatwaves.

I thought the strong SE ridge is why we're getting cutters?

although we can say it never even started lol, it was just one long fall

We have access to more information....by using data from all over the world. We don't have to limit ourselves to just our backyards. The thing you mentioned about storm tracks moving farther north is exactly the argument I used for why it got snowier in the 2000s and 2010s. Eventually though those tracks will/are moving even further north, and we even see heat going north of us in the summer with the Bermuda High located at a higher latitude sending the most anomalous heat into New England and Atlantic Canada (which is also causing the Maine lobster season to move into the Maritime Provinces.) Point being that yes it's shifting farther north, but it will also continue to do so.

37 is rain/snow mix, we can get a small accumulation if it gets to 36 and falls down hard enough.

When? The operative word is "will"

37 sounds like a rain/snow mix....how low does the temperature get during the storm? In my experience it has to be 36 degrees for snow to stick at all and that's only when it's falling at least an inch an hour.

2/22/08 was amazing and you're right, it came in in the middle of the night! I don't think it was a Lakes Cutter like this one is either and both the air and water were a lot colder than they are now.

Yeah that's usually a slowly retreating arctic airmass. It looks like temperatures will barely touch freezing even for an overnight low.