LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Thanks-- so that could be 3 MECS for someone or other on the east coast this season? Also, and this is much further ahead, but do you think we will have a very hot summer, based off of what usually happens in the summers after a strong or super el nino fades?
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I just read your well detailed outlook, sounds like you agree with many that the real pattern change will happen around or after January 20th and should last through the end of February and perhaps even into early March. It agrees well with pattern shifts we've seen in the past that last for 6-8 weeks.
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if January and February are both good, then it can still be a very good winter. Look at the snowfall totals of 1977-78 and also 2014-15
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there were some really bad winters in that 2000-2018 period though: 2001-02 2006-07 2007-08 2011-12 more good ones though is this some kind of cyclic oscillation rather than simple regression?
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Yep, this period compares to some of our worst stretches (late 80s early 90s and again late 90s into the new millenium)
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using the 2015-16 analog, likely around 1/20 or later
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Maybe it will be like 1982-83 or 2015-16 and we will get our chance in the climo peak of winter?
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Is this some kind of long term climate shift? It seems like this happens EVERY YEAR now-- la nina, el nino, or lo nada
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Where do you think this el nino will end up--stronger than 1957-58 but not as strong as 1997-98, 1982-83 or 2015-16?
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I wonder if it'll extend into February this time. We were super close to having a very good February in 2016-- do you remember the storm around the superbowl?
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Don I believe they will experience it though-- we are seeing accelerated changes and within the next 20 years or so, these companies will no longer be sustainable. natural gas is a euphemism-- it is actually methane as you know also why is it the secretary general uses much stronger language while the results of these conferences are less strong? -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
why dont fossil fuel companies get banned from these COP fiascos? why should these companies have any rights to have a say in anything? Like the tobacco companies, you wont see any progress until you eliminate their voices in making any decisions. -
Jan 1985 was the last time Long Beach went below zero wasn't it? Amazing to live near the ocean where it can both be below 0 and over 100 lol.
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July 2010 felt really good, I went running in that dry heat and I remember people saying it didn't feel like it was above 100 during the big heatwave.
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something I like about hot and dry weather is it's much easier to breathe and much lower air pollution (humidity traps vehicle exhaust particulate matter near the ground) and also the lower temps at night.
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no, a hotter and drier and less humid summer would be far preferable
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nice and we know what kind of a winter 1947-48 was ;-)
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Right this happens in the summer too Not sure why people have an issue with temps near 80, it is still October. Let's save on heating and enjoy the wonderful weather when it can't possibly snow.
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ABC and Lee Goldberg now have our highs at 77,77,78 for three days and say the models are playing catch up and lows of 58, 61 and 62
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Think this is the last shot at 80 for the year? We've hit 80 before in November (even mid November in 1993).
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So this is why we have a classic snowy winter connection to mild Novembers? I have noticed this is often the case, but it often comes after cool Octobers: 1957-58 1960-61 1963-64 1966-67 1977-78 1993-94
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17th I think it was a Saturday
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westerly winds too, thats heat right to the coast!
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awesome I was wondering how long it would be before the 95 record from October 2 a few years ago would be broken
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Good point! We see the same lag with la nina after el nino which happen to be some of our best and snowiest winters (1995-96 and 2010-11)
