LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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I remember when that happened in the snowicane in late February 2010 the snowpaste was stuck to the sides of houses too and made them look like igloos lol
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Not even sure why they're looking at the 3k NAM when it was already pointed out that's the digital zoom of "forecast" models.
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west/east rain snow lines do that, they're not extremely rare, but not common either. It's more common between NYC and Boston, I don't remember the last time it happened between ACY and NYC because they are at nearly the same longitude.
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and the ticks! Got to worry about those too, especially with Lyme disease on the rise.
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I can only theorize that the 3k nam has a lot of "fake resolution." It's like using digital zoom on a camera, something I'm well familiar with. It looks like it's picking up a lot of extra detail not seen in optical zoom, but that extra "detail" really isn't there and can result in an inaccurate image with false detail. Just say that the NAM itself is the digital zoom of weather models and call it a day/week/month/season lol
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I have seen them up in the Poconos too. Hopefully this storm gets rid of them, for awhile anyway.
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Yes lol I just thought it was funny right after that they put them up to cover the gap lol.
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They saw what you said and put one up for those areas too lol
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Looking at that does beg the question....when was the last time both Boston and NYC got 2 feet or more of snow (or even 20"+ each), while Philly, DC and Baltimore got 0" (or even less than 1" each?)
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Yep I've often seen storms passing over Nantucket or the Cape give us rain because the way they got there and how they strengthened (or didn't) wasn't what we needed for snow.
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It wasn't just out to lunch, it went out for drinks during the middle of the day and never came back.......
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at this rate March may even not finish below normal.
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I wonder if every set up is fragile for someone somewhere-- it's just that the geographical location of fragility changes...it just happens to be us now.
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I assume he means nice warm weather because the storm you mentioned has been pushed off until the 23rd now (on the GFS anyway.)
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Awesome, I used to party in Halifax. Euro must be in the mood to party too.
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Didn't one or more of these models say we had a Miller A coming up from the Gulf around the 17th? I distinctly remember maps being posted about it.
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Yep Suffolk is an amazing place to be for late developing Miller B's, I think there was close to 18 inches there? We had 8" here which is an MECS any time but especially in March.
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Yes and we only have a 40-50 year sample size to base it on, but it works. The one 10"+ storm was March 1993 which also changed to rain after dumping about a foot. 4-6 is perfectly fine for March for here.
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I like this solution too and it goes along with my thinking of 3-5 for NYC and Long Island and up to a foot inland (including my place in the Poconos.)
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so even later than me, I was thinking 0z tonight but 12z tomorrow would be better to get more consistency, especially with what 0z Euro runs have been doing over the past week. For me significant would be 4" of snow and I'm still going to take the under on that until we get more consistency.
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Right, the NAM seems to do best in the "snow or nothing" specific blockbuster scenarios. Plus it always has one of these crazy runs in this time range. Would you go with a 50/50 GFS/Euro split? Of course we weigh 12z and 0z runs more than the other ones.
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what verifies is usually one third to one half of the nam's output on its best runs
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January 2016 may be the only storm we will ever have where both Allentown and JFK saw over 30 inches lol. Straight latitude storm. Both my places got over 30", will probably never happen again.
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hybrid is Miller C right? I think PD2 2003 was that. intuitively I think the NAM works best in "snow vs nothing" scenarios not snow vs rain ones.
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Whenever people make fun of the NAM I always point to Jan 2016. It does well in specific set ups. Though I'll admit that event was much more in its wheelhouse than this one is. The old E-E rule worked rather well in classic set ups like February 1983, January 1996, PD2 2003 and January 2016.
