LibertyBell

People were using winters from the 1910s as analogs for 2010-11 lol The 2010-11 la nina was pretty amazing. Granted la ninas that come after el ninos tend to be very good. 1995-96 comes to mind too. But those should not be analogs for this winter, this isn't a la nina after an el nino lol. Maybe try something like 2000-01 instead? That was a third year la nina.

I have these cutie parrots nesting around here.

No one wants basement flooding trust me. The dry summer was AMAZING. I want that EVERY summer. Such perfect weather! We have gotten sick and tired of the nasty humid tropical rain forest buggy summers of the last few years so now we're finally back to our normal summers of the 80s and prior. Hopefully this is the long term pattern for years to come resulting from shifting back the AMO from the warm to the cool phase. I thought we might be headed towards dry summers when I hinted at it last spring.

It was nice to see a dry summer for a change. I had an idea tropical activity would be down this year after the slow start. We'll probably still make it to average but not the 15+ TC some were predicting.

https://www.livescience.com/climate-tipping-points-closer-than-realized On the positive side, the dumb species of humanity may be removed from this planet much sooner than they think. Climate 'points of no return' may be much closer than we thought By Harry Baker published 7 days ago The "tipping points" are also more numerous than researchers previously realized. (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) A new study has warned that irreversible climate "tipping points" are more numerous and close to being triggered than previously thought. (Image credit: Shutterstock) (opens in new tab) Climate tipping points — the "points of no return" past which key components of Earth's climate will begin to irreversibly break down — could be triggered by much lower temperatures than scientists previously thought, with some tipping points potentially already reached. There are also many more potential tipping points than scientists previously identified, according to a new study. In climatology, a tipping point is defined as a rise in global temperature past which a localized climate system, or "tipping element" — such as the Amazon rainforest or the Greenland ice sheet — starts to irreversibly decline. Once a tipping point has been reached, that tipping element will experience runaway effects that essentially doom it forever, even if global temperatures retreat below the tipping point. The idea of climate tipping points first emerged in a 2008 paper published in the journal PNAS, when researchers identified nine key tipping elements that could reach such a threshold due to human-caused climate change. In the new study, which was published Sept. 9 in the journal Science, a team of researchers reassessed data from more than 200 papers on the subject of tipping points published since 2008. They found that there are now 16 major tipping points, almost all of which could reach the point of no return if global warming continues beyond 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels. Earth has already warmed by more than 2 degrees F (1.1 C) above preindustrial levels and, if current warming trends continue, is on track to reach between 3.6 and 5.4 F (2 and 3 C) above preindustrial levels, the study authors said in a statement. "This sets Earth on course to cross multiple dangerous tipping points that will be disastrous for people across the world," study co-author Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said in the statement. Related: Is climate change making the weather worse? CLOSE Tipping points could be triggered much earlier than previosly expected, according to the new study. (Image credit: Shutterstock) (opens in new tab) When the researchers conducted their reassessment, they eliminated two of the original nine tipping points due to insufficient evidence — but then, they identified nine new ones that had been previously overlooked, bringing the toal to 16, they reported in the study. "Since I first assessed climate tipping points in 2008, the list has grown and our assessment of the risk they pose has increased dramatically," co-author Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter in the U.K. and lead author of the original 2008 tipping points paper, said in the statement. In the new study, the researchers calculated the exact temperature at which each tipping element would be likely to pass its point of no return. Their analysis revealed that five tipping elements — the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets; Arctic permafrost; tropical coral reefs; and a key ocean current in the Labrador Sea — are in the "danger zone," meaning they are quickly approaching their tipping points. Two of these danger zone tipping points, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, are already beyond their lowest potential tipping points of 1.4 F (0.8 C) and 1.8 F (1 C) above preindustrial times respectively, which suggests these two systems may already be beyond saving, researchers wrote. The other 11 tipping points are listed as "likely" or "possible" if warming continues past 2.7 F. Triggering climate tipping points will increase the severity and frequency of extreme events like wildfires. (Image credit: Shutterstock) (opens in new tab) Past estimates, such as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report, published in three parts in 2021 and 2022, suggested that most major tipping points would be reached only if Earth warmed past 3.6 F, which would give humanity more time to prepare mitigation and adaptation strategies. But according to the new study, those tipping points may be closer than expected. One explanation for this accelerated timeline is that researchers now fully understand the interconnectedness of tipping points. Better climate models now show that the fall of one tipping point could increase the likelihood of another's collapse. For example, if the Arctic permafrost melts due to rising temperatures, it will release more carbon into the atmosphere. This will further increase surface temperatures on land and in the oceans, thereby accelerating melt in major ice sheets and stressing coral reefs. In other words, tipping points are stacked up like dominoes; as soon as one falls, the others could swiftly follow. Related: Could climate change make humans go extinct? Therefore, it is imperative to drastically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions immediately before this irreversible chain reaction begins, the researchers warned. "To maintain liveable conditions on Earth, protect people from rising extremes, and enable stable societies, we must do everything possible to prevent crossing tipping points," Rockström said. "Every tenth of a degree counts." Researchers warn that we must rapidly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. (Image credit: Shutterstock) (opens in new tab) But this will be no easy task. To have just a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 2.7 F, greenhouse gas emissions would have to be cut in half by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050, the researchers said in the statement. Given the meager progress in combating climate change, this goal may seem unachievable. In fact, in some ways, we seem to be moving backward; in June, a U.S. Supreme Court ruling severely limited the federal government's ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. RELATED STORIES —Climate change has been altering Earth's axis for at least 30 years —Earth's lower atmosphere is expanding due to climate change —Climate change is making Earth dimmer However, the study authors argue that it could still be possible to achieve such drastic changes through a different type of tipping point: a social one. This is a theoretical threshold in public opinion that, once passed, will force governments and large corporations to take drastic climate action, the scientists said in the statement. The only problem is that this social tipping point must be reached well before the climate tipping points are passed — otherwise, it will be too little, too late. Originally published on Live Science.

Yep..... winter is a two month season. I'd argue about including may in summer though, because we've had some cold (and even snowy) Mays.... summer still starts in June but does last through at least September. winter: J/F spring: M/A/M summer: J/J/A/S fall: O/N/D So the real change is that summer is now twice as long as winter.

Meanwhile though, the center of the country is baking as is most of Europe and even parts of Southern Asia.

It makes you wish for school starting in October lol. We never saw a September that hot after that.

That would be an amazingly long time for this blocking to persist wouldn't it, Chris? What brought on this historic blocking? We never had a real SSW. Also do you think the models err on the side of persistence and it's much more likely that we flip back to a lack of blocking just in time for winter?

Don't forget September 1983 which featured 5 90+ days including a 99 on the 11th and a 95 on the 24rd.

It makes sense that unless we get strong westerly winds the greatest heat will always be to our west as our extremes will always be modified by the ocean. But doesn't it look to you like the extreme heat is migrating eastward (along with the drought)? Last summer it was in the NW, this summer it's in the middle of the country, maybe our turn will come next summer?

those westerly flows of heat are like heaven, I wish the entire summer was like that

A special conjunction of all 5 visible planets occurring on the morning of Friday June 24th in the SE sky about 45 minutes before sunrise, they will all be in a straight line-- Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn.

Millions of tiny ice crystals in cirrus clouds created this amazing prismatic effect.

Also came close to a record low this morning! I wonder what the shortest interval is going from a record high to a record low?

Very nice at JFK This is the type of heat we all need!

That can happen at JFK too!

Yes this is the low humidity clean air type of heat most of us cherish

Guess what though, more often than not blocking now means lack of blocking in the winter. I want the 100 that Chicago had last week, not the mediocre low mid 90s BS

100 is awesome. We got close to 95 here, second hottest day this year. I hope we hit 100 in July!

Nice! The second time JFK has hit 94 this year. LOL @ NYC "88" The equipment at Central Park needs to be relocated or decomissioned.

It's the best part of summer! Hopefully we can hit 100 in July when this happens again

Do you think the heat of 1999 was underestimated? July 1999 had some amazing heat, 20 90 degree days and 2 days over 100!

the good old fashioned scorcher summers! lol can you imagine Bridgehampton hit 100? That means Westhampton must've hit 100 too? I wonder what's the farthest east 100 degree temps have ever gotten on Long Island? To my knowledge Montauk has never reached 100, but Westhampton has. Not sure about East Hampton or Block Island.

they must have adjusted that temp on 7/11/93 downward back then I distinctly remember it was reported that EWR had 5 straight 100+ days while NYC had 3 straight 100+ days and JFK had 2 straight 100+ days. EWR had 9 100+ days that year Ah the good old days....