LibertyBell

You didn't get a lot in January 2015 either did you? We had about a foot (busted on the 3 foot call though lol-- that came the following January.)

really? I thought you'd have more in 14-15 because you're in SNE and SNE was a 3 month party in 2014-15 lol Look how much Boston got lol

for the coast though we had a lot less because a lot of those big storms mixed here. I liked 2014-15 more, because it was much colder and more long lasting snowpack. 2013-14 and 2014-15 back to back was almost like 2009-10 and 2010-11 back to back.

13-14 had too many mixing storms.... 14-15 could have done it because it was colder but the winter started too late, but even so, that ended up being Boston's big winter.

Toms River was near the jackpot for most of the snowstorms that winter, not just the early February one, but one in January too.

I don't know if you had it in your list, but would you say 1968-69 is a possible analog (based on how cold it's been in Seattle and how rare that is in an el nino, that is one of the few seasons that had that like this one does-- and this el nino is not behaving like a super or even strong el nino.)

I mean 50s and 60s would be mild, but a "furnace" would require temperatures of 70+ in the northeast, which happens maybe once a decade in DJF winter. Would you say we are looking at a once a decade event?

and BNL (NWS office) had 90.9 inches, if I remember correctly? I think NYC-Long Island are capable of getting 100 inches in the perfect pattern that lasts most of the season; in the historical record there are a couple of winters in the civil war or pre civil war era where both New York City and Philadelphia received 100 inches of snow and there was constant snowcover from Thanksgiving to St Patrick's Day.

Did you see Tony's historical record for today: looks on this day in 1989 we had an icy storm: 1989 - A winter storm spread snow and sleet and freezing rain from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the northeastern U.S. Freezing rain in West Virginia caused fifteen traffic accidents in just a few minutes west of Charleston. Tennessee was deluged with up to 7.5 inches of rain. Two inches of rain near Clarksville TN left water in the streets as high as car doors.

JFK had 30"+ in Jan 2016, so that might be the reason. JFK is part of New York City ;-)

This happened in the 80s a lot, look up Vet Day 1987 for how both DC and BOS can get a ton of snow while we are the hole in the middle of the doughnut lol.

But in those maps, either c or d would be good for us, so based on those numbers 38.9% of the time we should have normal to below normal temperatures, while 47.0% of the time we have normal to above normal temperatures (what happened to what's left over-- that doesn't add up to 100% lol.)

We can't have perfectionist dreams. The fact is that with where the Pacific is in its decadal oscillation we will have a semipermanent trough in that area, so we might as well look for winters that featured both a snowy west and east coast, because that's going to be our best hope probably for the next few winters.

1968-69 was the only other one with Arctic cold in Seattle in an el nino, maybe that means something for snow in February for us this year lol. 1968-69 is proof that you can have both a snowy NW and snow NE in the same season! 1966-67 is an even better example of that! I think we should get used to this, as I don't believe we are going to be getting a big west coast ridge anytime soon, so might as well look for ways to have both a snowy west and east coast.

DC got clocked that month

wow was that the record snowiest winter in south NJ? the only other time I've seen snowfall of 90+ inches at our latitude at the coast was in 1995-96 when parts of Suffolk County reported between 90-96 inches of snow!

it wasn't just near LGA, I live near JFK and the winds were rocking last night even after midnight!

wow back in the days when the AO and NAO both used to be extremely negative.

Walt, will the Poconos be done with the snow squalls by noon time?

a foot of snow from Brooklyn on east.

especially since it is a nice photogenic all day snow

The way things are looking we may have our coldest weather of the entire winter overall this week.

What we worry about with arctic air is suppression, an out to sea track. It seems as though it can indeed be "too cold to snow" if the arctic air suppresses the storm to our south. This was spectacularly the case with the first storm in February 2010, I'll never forget how close we were to having an HECS. I would much much rather have a foot of snow followed by an inch of rain (or even moreso an inch of rain followed by a foot of snow like we did in the final storm of February 2010), than missing out on an HECS by 50 miles. In many ways that first February 2010 storm was much more painful than even March 2001 was.

The only other el nino on that list is 1968-69...I wonder if this means anything for February? Thoughts?

I was going to say, his ego was his downfall, he was actually assuming you (or anyone else for that matter) actually thought his forecast was worth "copying." ffs his ego is so big he didn't even take a second to think that the pool of analogs would be small in a strong to very strong el nino.