LibertyBell

no one has properly explained why the WPAC is so much warmer than the EPAC? what makes that part of the Pacific so different from the rest?

wow so the 1899 and 1934 arctic outbreaks happened on the same day? It looks like they came close to matching our all time historic winter in 1783-84 that we have talked about previously? it would be interesting to see national maps of the cold for all three of these arctic outbreaks (I'm sure a map can be made using the available data on 1784, 1899 and 1934 so we can compare the three?) It looks like the cold in 1784 extended for a much longer period of time (many months) than the other two? Were they all accompanied by big snowstorms? That is the difference between the arctic cold back then vs the big arctic shots in the 80s-- those were all cold and dry and on bare ground not snow covered ground. 1899: One of the most significant cold outbreaks to ever impact the United States occurred early to mid-February. From the 8th-11th, the statewide average temperature across Iowa was 14.6 degrees below zero, making it the coldest four-day stretch on record in the state. On the 8th, Sioux City experienced its coldest day on record, with a daily average temperature of 24 degrees below zero. Then on the 11th, they reached their second-coldest temperature on record with a low of minus 31. Overall the coldest readings were obtained on the morning of the 9th when reported low temperatures included -21 at Keokuk, -23 at Des Moines, -33 at New Hampton, -35 at Le Mars, -38 at Estherville, and -40 at Sibley. The cold across the middle of the country was so extreme and persistent that ice floes down the Mississippi River into the deep south, emerging into the Gulf of Mexico near New Orleans on February 17th. This has happened only one other time: February 13, 1784. The temperature dropped to 63 degrees below zero at Norway House, Manitoba, Canada setting the province's low-temperature record.

I know but it seems like unstacked lows always seem to mix or change to rain on the south shore. There hasn't been an all snow 6"+ storm here since 2017 or 2018.

The most recent example we have of this is April 2, 2018. We don't need to get to 32.... but it needs to be 33-34 at least, 35-36 won't cut it for more than an inch or two (at the very most.)

I like the top one better, the bottom one seems to indicate more rain.

Thanks, it's in my floppy disk collection around here somewhere. Back in the late 80s was when we first started using those 3.5" disks (I liked them a lot better than the larger 5.25" disks because they weren't as "floppy" and were a lot more durable and didn't have an exposed magnetic surface like the larger sized floppies do.)

He would want rain to Greenland if this was the Greenland subforum lol

too bad they were too little to remember 2009-10 and 2010-11 2010-11 honestly was our best winter since 1995-96. I've not seen actual snow cover that high before or since. Snowstorm on top of snowstorm on top of snowstorm.

add 1997-98, 2001-02 and a few others to this list too.

Wow I wrote a short story called The Last Snow back in February 1989 as a sophomore in high school when yet another busted call for 6-8 inches turned into virga. It was a story set in the future about a group of storm chasers celebrating the last snowstorm that the Planet Earth would ever see.

They brought in January 1961 into this too? LMAO Why not February 1961? January 1961 was the least of the three big storms that winter.

You know this is why I prefer vertically stacked lows that move very slowly or even loop, because the 700/850 lows are right where the surface low is. Less chance of mixing or changing over.

I guess it depends. For some people seeing a simulation of snow on a map is almost as good as the real thing, so when it doesn't happen it doesn't matter because in their minds they've already received the high they get from tracking it. So in a way it's already happened for them. And who knows, maybe in an alternate earth in another universe it actually did happen....

cool, let's have an early summer then wait, did I say cool.... I meant HOT

Was the same the case in 1955-56 (that winter gets compared to it).

Yes, you know my favorite enso phase is a la nina after an el nino, those are great for hot and dry summers and snowy winters. I'm hoping for this combo after this fiasco of a winter.

But you can take out the SSW part and just say we need the Pacific to cooperate and it's cold enough. This would work with or without the SSW, so maybe the SSW isn't important at all?

We also had the nice St Paddys Day storm in 07.... my doors were stuck shut lol

Best ice storm since 1994. I would also argue that 14-15 was another season where we started out bad and ended up with a very good season. 1977-78 too but that one is held sacred lol

Yes, I've found that as long as it doesn't change over or mix (much), JFK does better because it's close to the ocean. Was February 1961 also one of these cases-- did JFK have more moisture than NYC in this one too, Don?

Maybe undermeasured at Central Park, like perhaps February 1961 also was.

I wonder if some of those 60s storms were undermeasured at Central Park because there's a few of them that had more snow at JFK. Besides the Lindsey storm (which also dropped 20" at LGA), there was also the February 1961 blockbluster which dropped 24.1" of snow at JFK (even though it mixed over at times!) That was the biggest snow storm at JFK until PD2, which was then exceeded by January 2016.

Wow, I thought it might be more like a lesser version of April 2, 2018 The Lindsey storm was an HECS lol. Why do we make these models available to the general public?

Happening at the right time of day and preferably night will also help.

It's good to see both the GFS and Euro show a south of benchmark track, however we will need some cold air, because a good track with not enough cold air is just cold rain or a cold rain changing to snow showers at the end.