LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Right, in that way it was very similar to last winter, we had a favorable period in December and a favorable period in March but neither worked out. Which probably means a consistently bad Pacific tilts the "luck" against us. It's very difficult to recover from a bad Pacific because of just how darn large it is. Even if it briefly becomes better, the better periods aren't long enough to benefit us much.
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That year was a paradigm shift to our climate. I don't believe that climate change occurs in small equal steps, I believe there are certain events, even natural events, that accelerate it. Happy 8 year anniversary of the last time NYC went below zero!
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
LibertyBell replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
and 8 years ago today was the last time NYC went below 0! Happy Valentine's Day! -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
LibertyBell replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Thanks, I would think the average snowfall in that area is 30"+ -
Sure, there's still a chance, but so far how would you grade this winter? I'd say D-. Last winter was an F (I don't think there is an F-). If we get a storm of 6"+ (doesn't even have to be 10"+ because we already have had a 4" storm), I would raise it to C-.
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No, but many made long range forecasts based on one significant 10"+ storm regionwide, it didn't have to be an HECS.
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I've been saying it for months based on the latent heat release from higher end el ninos (moderate or strong), specific examples are 1983, 1995, 1998, and 2010. This is general knowledge.
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Yeah, but it also proves to expect many more winters of this type, it really has nothing to do with enso state and much more to do with the evolving climate. That's the real reason to be upset.
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You'll never get an analog size that high and it's important to note that the changes 2015-16 brought to the Pacific Ocean is something we still haven't recovered from.
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See above post, we had much better blocking in those winters, with the changing climate, those blocks are not happening as frequently, specifically after 2015-16 we saw a complete change to the Pacific Ocean that we still haven't recovered from.
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Just dont say that 1982-83 and 2015-16 were "luck" there is no such thing as "luck" there are specific scientific reasons why these events happened and we had much better blocking in those winters. With the changing climate, those kinds of block have become far less frequent. That's the real reason why they happened. After 2015-16 we saw a complete change to the Pacific ocean that we still have not recovered from.
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You can't prove the statement you made either.
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Again with this luck thing-- Chris conclusively proved it isn't luck. Moderate and strong el ninos are prone to these kinds of storms, stop it with the luck thing.
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Those were far colder especially in the back half of winter. April 1983 had the latest significant snowfall in the history of Long Island and we had some moderate events in February 2016 as well as going below 0 on this date. There were several things to like about both of those. I dont get the glee about this winter, it's historically awful not just here but on a national level.
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But then I go back to my point about it being silly to set 1997-98 to compare this winter to. That winter was a failure and so is this one and yes we can say it's a failure on a national level. It's not just about inland areas either.
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Also, I don't believe 97/98 is the proper analog for this winter, because that ENSO phase was "super" this will end up just being "strong" in all likelihood. It puts it in a completely different category. And even if it's "super" (which it likely won't be classified as that way), there are two other "supers" that were colder and snowier, which is what makes 1997-98 the anomaly.
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This winter? There was one moderate event and one minor event. The moderate event dropped 4.2 here and the minor event dropped 2.0 here. I don't know where the other two events came from.... I don't consider anything less than an inch as an event.
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I dont see anything to be happy about, I understand you got a lot more snow than the those of us down here though.
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Many on this forum thought it would be much more like 2015-16.
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I mean it's an aberration because a strong el nino is expected to do better than what 97-98 did and there two other very strong ones did that a lot better, so that makes 1997-98 the aberration.
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This is why I'm worried about Canadian wild fires and bad air quality here again. I think some people are just unaware of how awful things are getting-- and it's about so much more than just snowfall.
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Because there are other el nino events that were stronger than this that had much more snow and were colder. 1982-83 and 2015-16 I consider 1997-98 an aberration. We even went below 0 in February 2016, on this date, as a matter of fact. Happy Valentine's Day lol.
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We can just use the national numbers overall and going by that it's been a historically snowless winter over the CONUS. I dont understand the fixation with TN-- it's just one state lol.
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Yeah but you're inland. Even disregarding central park, none of the airports here are even close to double digits.
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If we end up at under 10 inches on the season it's going to be the worst 2 year period in New York City history. Will have to look at JFK's history in the late 90s to see how well it compares with that. But one thing to be happy about, I don't think there's much of a chance of a cool rainy spring, like the last two years I would bet on a warm and dry spring.
