LibertyBell

that sunset was gorgeous-- the sky was on fire!

Oh is that headed this way Don?

it's true but more in the mid to long range....I posted a PDF analysis on it several times.

I think we'll beat 2002 for earliest start to the growing season.

2005-06? Subtract the December event that only produced for a narrow area anyway....

also who the hell wants snow to rain?

1932 is so far ahead of everyone else, what exactly was going on that year? and two years later there was 1934-- crazy lol

the positive of a reliable bias is that it can be adjusted for in advance, correct?

This is likely a 10 day transitional period from a pseudo el nino pattern to more of a la nina pattern for February...this 10 day period is going to be the time to get something this winter...if we don't we will likely have less than 10" of snow this season....and even that is being generous.

It looks like models are consistently underestimating that western atlantic ridge as well as overestimating the amount of cold air we now get....figured both are connected to those steamy SST offshore.

more lawsuits incoming 1977....

We can't even talk about Antarctica retaining its ice anymore.

Antarctic sea ice also decreasing now.

It is especially if it's humid. Do you have any data for near Allentown? I spend a lot of my summers up there, and just north of there near Lehighton and Jim Thorpe.

I guess you'll get that convection more inland, we generally don't see that near the coast (very much like coastal Florida.)

That dry weather was spreading east last year. I think we are going towards more of an 80s type pattern, which is good, because it means less bugs. Looks like the Antarctic sea ice is also suffering now.

What-- last spring and the one before it were hot and dry (my favorite pattern).

No, the trend has been for warmer and drier less humid springs and summers and I expect that to continue

I'm thinking/hoping for a 2002 repeat

Yeah it reminds me of a farther east version of February 1989...a busted forecast of course. Back in the 80s and 90s we had a lot of blown forecasts when either the storm didn't go as far west as expected (more common) or went farther west (rare) and we got a positive bust. Sometimes (like in December 1989) they went too far west and we got a rainstorm in the middle of a very cold pattern lol.

lol probably can't....I think Boxing Day was a surprise when it showed up on the models like that. More cases of being surprised when a snowstorm that was forecast doesn't happen though....like March 2001 or January 2008. January 2015 was somewhat of a surprise because of the big forecasts that didn't work out. But I guess that's about it-- getting surprised happens less now because the short range models (within 48 hour forecasts) are usually really good. You remember how often we got surprised back in the 80s and 90s (and usually not in the good way lol-- though there were a few of those too).

Wow thats weird so few 90 degree days-- we've had more 90 degree days than that here on the south shore of Long Island Also, high temperatures get muted with more cloud cover and higher humidity unfortunately-- I love very hot 100+ dry days...

Not new normal, but we're going to see a lot more winters like this-- boom or bust is the new norm, which means fewer average winters and much more nothing or everything winters.

February 1989 type storm but farther east?

that could easily be dry and cold, and sunny, that's a lot better than snow changing to rain which I dislike above all else