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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. no debate, I've seen rain/snow maps that indicate that. and in the summer they are also much hotter because they have a much less influence from the ocean than long island does. Point being if you want more snow in the winter you have to deal with hotter weather in the summer (because you need less of an ocean influence for both more snow and more heat.)
  2. at the same time we can't use the entire climate history of every station either though because these are varying periods for different places so it would be an apples to oranges comparison (for example comparing Central Park to JFK airport, one's period of record began in the 1860s while the other's began in the 1950s lol.) So I think at least doubling that recorded history period to 1950-onwards makes sense because most of our reliable airport stations began keeping records in the 1950s.
  3. I dont like 30 year averages either, it's a very arbitrary number to use.
  4. Theoretically if that's the case then the amount of snowfall could vary a lot based on elevation. There are hills in northern Manhattan and also on Staten Island that could get snow while the more commercial areas get rain?
  5. I hope it's like 92-93 then, that was a fun winter with a lot of noreasters, even though many of them were mixed events it didn't keep us from enjoying the snow. 93-94 had a lot of mixed events too but was much colder and we had a historic February. I wouldn't mind that either, even if it's not as cold as that season was. You don't need a lot of cold to get a lot of snow.
  6. Honestly, I don't think people would care if we got like 4-6 inches of snow and then rain. Some people can be silly with their snow perfectionism (I'm guilty of it sometimes too), even if it's a 4-6 inch snow storm with rain after that-- it's still a snowstorm for us and that 4 - 6 inches of snow still counts! We had several storms like this in the 80s and early to mid 90s (including in 92-93 before we transitioned to much heavier snowfall winters) where we got 4-6 inches of snow and then heavy rain after that. It didn't keep us from enjoying the snow of course. Maybe this is a transitional year where we get average snowfall like 92-93 was and then we get a few much heavier snowfall winters like what happened after that season?
  7. We are in a long term -PNA state aren't we? These last about 15 years? Because we seem to be getting inland runner or hugger tracks no matter the ENSO state now. It's useless to "hope" for a different Pacific state because this is the dominant state in this part of the cycle regardless of ENSO. The same was the case in the 80s.
  8. I don't think he's a denier though (I think he stated that he understands the rate of change proceeds at different rates in different places.) I like more complete datasets too, and I think 1950 onwards is a good period to use since 1950 is when most of our records began to be kept in a more reliable way (it's also the beginning of the satellite era.)
  9. Thanks Don, I've always wondered why very cold weather Thanksgiving week (after a mild November before that) often leads to our best winters.
  10. Why is snowman19 weenieing everyone? Not only are they talking about this in the ENSO thread too, this is what the models show and all our TV forecasters are saying the same thing.
  11. and El Chichon! That was the largest of all of the recent ones.
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