LibertyBell

Onto something mysterious, giant chunks of ice falling from a clear blue sky in Florida https://nypost.com/2025/02/05/us-news/massive-chunk-of-ice-falls-from-the-sky-pierces-roof-of-florida-home-and-no-ones-sure-where-it-came-from/ There's probably a simple explanation for this like it falling from a plane, but accounts of huge chunks of ice falling from a clear sky predate the existence of air planes. They're called megaicycryometeors. https://www.wwnytv.com/2025/02/05/large-chunk-ice-falls-sky-crashes-into-roof-this-is-first/ The homeowners say they’re thankful they weren’t home at the time. “When something occurs, what the potential life threat could be is what we’re kind of looking at,” Berryhill added. “And in this situation, a large object falling from the sky is going to gain speed fast. It’s going to cause tremendous bodily harm or possibly even death.” The FAA has not yet determined the source of the falling ice. https://www.wptv.com/news/state/large-chunk-of-ice-falls-from-sky-smashes-through-roof-of-home-in-palm-coast#:~:text=In past incidents%2C falling ice,formation of "blue ice." The ice chunks that are connected to aircraft are *blue ice* (some chemicals must be mixed in to make it blue), but the ones not linked to aircraft have no color. Authorities are still investigating the source of the ice. In past incidents, falling ice chunks have been linked to aircraft. Ice can accumulate on planes at high altitudes and break away as they descend into warmer air. Additionally, while aircraft are not permitted to eject waste mid-flight, leaks can occur, leading to the formation of "blue ice."

I thought maybe some elevation to cause orographic lift would also help (like it does on the Tug Plateau), but that location in Japan is near sea level.

so theoretically for long island to get that kind of snow, they'd have to be like 50 miles east of where they are and then get the snow off the prevailing westerlies passing over warmer water and dumping the snow on the east side?

Couldn't find the post in the ENSO thread (maybe he deleted it because Ray did give a confused response to him comparing it to 2010-11) but I found the post in the January 2025 thread where he said that we were about to get a February 2011 style turnaround right here.

I think it's best to be apolitical especially when you see people from *both sides* doing some very silly things. Makes you wonder why there should be *sides* in the first place when our goals should be for the betterment of all. Thanks for the great compliment-- it's much appreciated!

why don't we get snowfall like that here when our SST are record warm?

Is this near Sapporo, Chris? Is this like our lake effect snow?

These cycles (and periodic mass extinctions) are determined by the sun's orbit around the center of the Milky Way.

There's a reason why 6" storms are much more rare than 4" storms. Come to think of it, 4" storms have become pretty rare now too.

It's almost like some people are just wandering around looking to file a claim against someone....

why are the SSTs still so darned warm? Still in the 40s? This is midwinter and with a winter thats been solidly below normal to near normal you'd expect SSTs to be in the mid 30s here by now. Even ACY averages SST around 37 this time of year.

why are the SSTs still so darned warm? Someone said they are still in the 40s? This is midwinter and with a winter thats been solidly below normal to near normal you'd expect SSTs to be in the mid 30s here by now. Even ACY averages SST around 37 this time of year.

tell me about it, here on Long Island they wouldn't even close schools for 4-6 inches of snow with heavy snow falling during the morning rush.

Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769. Don, which storm was this? Was it in February 1994?

The entertainment was well worth it.

Here is the funny irony, like two weeks ago in the enso thread Snowman said that this season reminded him of 2010-11 a lot, but he said that in reference to how winter ended as soon as February began. So he may be right about it being like 2010-11 but for the wrong reason.

what was wrong with how it was in the old days when we just had one big thread for doing model pbp for all the storms? It was awesome, like reading a big mystery novel. I guess people don't like to read books anymore. Separating everything into 3 or 4 threads just makes everything seem disjointed.

Hey there's a positive side to all this.....

I hate when people diss parrots in this way, parrots have an extremely high level of intelligence, easily higher than most people in this forum.

Temperatures should drop when the snow moves in the air is very dry.

this is more than one storm though, some will trend north, others will trend south.

wow still 16-21 for our area. and this is the ensembles mean, not even an individual run.

it doesn't matter, It's February so sun angle isn't an issue. I like watching the snow fall so I'd like to see it fall during the day time. Can't see it when it's dark outside (streetlights only show a very narrow area, not satisfactory.) Heaviest snowfall rate 8 am to 9 am is ideal for me.

your eyes must have gotten wide when you saw that 1.4 per hour over our area at 9 am lol

wild, thats 1.4 inches per hour right over my head at 9 am