LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Change it to a map of January 1996, our biggest la nina snowstorm ever.
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Thanks, Tony, back then we used to have subzero arctic shots followed quickly by HECS!
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the wisest people are those who realize that the more they learn, the more there is yet left to learn.
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so a stratospheric polar vortex disruption is also *canonical* la nina?
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Here's to 1961 the coldest Groundhogs Day of all time, soon to be followed by a 2 foot blizzard!!
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storm coming in backwards, east to west, Walt? -
Lows:EWR: -2 (1961)NYC: -3 (1881)LGA: -1 (1961)JFK: -1 (1961) Tony was this great arctic outbreak in February 1961 just before the HECS that dumped 25.1" of snow at JFK? Their biggest snowstorm until PD2 (2003)!
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Looks like primetime begins on or after February 7th and the AO bottoms out around the 15th. If we extend this outward it should become positive again by the 23rd, so we should score something by or before then.
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Around what time do you think the pattern begins to relax-- February 25th?
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Yeah I'd like someone to run some numbers and point out what our best 15 day period is for double digit (10"+) snowstorms, but I think it would be approximately from Feb 5 - Feb 20.
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a gorgeous pink/purple sunrise here and 17 degrees !!
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So this wont be a Feb 10 - 25 kind of 15 day window, Chris? What are you looking at for the peak of the pattern, from Feb 15-20?
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Driest January on record at Mt Pocono too!!
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I think that night when we were snowing heavily the winds were howling out of the south though? Maybe we can go back and check, but that was one WILD night!
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and that is our classic period for big snowstorms. For NYC it's between February 5-20 and that is exactly when this pattern gets going.
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This is the main reason to be somewhat excited....
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that the GFS is that high is GREAT even if it's not right, because how far off can it be? Even 1/3 of that amount would be just fine!
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But it's the time of year that matters. The waters are at their coldest starting now.
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as a matter of fact I remember you were the one who was amazed in that snowicane storm in February 2010 and said wow we're getting blizzard conditions on a southerly wind, now I've seen it all lol.
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how cold are the SST? we're at the time of year when an onshore flow shouldn't matter so much..... February has been known to give us snowstorms even on a southerly wind (see the last storm in February 2010.)
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yeah no one really cares about snowcover in urban areas, it's a nuisance. we just want to see snow falling from the sky. forget March, you can get snow sticking during the day in April too
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it has happened before several times see December 1989 as one infamous example that was even more extreme.
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there's no such thing as luck bro, this has happened before and will happen again, it's because of the fast pacific jet and we're just in a very dry pattern and have been for months.
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the waters of the gulf were excessively warm thats why they got those extreme snowfall totals
