LibertyBell

Remember what I said to you last Spring....I felt like we were going to turn the corner back towards dry summers and here we are. Looks like the AMO going towards its cool phase played a big part in this? It's going to be nice to get into more of an 80s to early 90s kind of summer pattern again!

I loved this summer I hope we get many more like this. Really tired of all the rainy buggy humid summers and it's so nice to get a dry/hot summer again.

the la nina after el nino connection is stronger

Yes that was an important change! This is going to be stronger for them than Sandy was for us! I wonder if the storm surge will be over 10 feet?

I was looking at the one from the 1800s that hugged the coast and thought we'd need something like that but that was so far out of the ordinary it seems to be unlikely. One thing that makes me pessimistic about it (maybe I should say optimistic lol) is that it always seems like we get these fronts that push these storms out to sea or the storms go into the southeast. It seems like we need a perfect thread the needle scenario to have a storm bend back into the coast up here. I've seen both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland get hit by hurricanes several times though.

Thats what I thought too when I saw that Hermine went to the wave off the African coast.

Maybe NYC will get into the 40s tonight

Whats the previous record holder-- Hazel?

Would it have been an actual hurricane if it occurred a month earlier? Another question, a month earlier would it have taken a more "regular" N to NNE track? I'm still highly suspicious that NYC can ever get a direct hit by a major hurricane-- our geography and the geometry of the coast forbids it. I can see the eye of such a storm going into southern NJ or central or eastern LI but NYC? Not really. Maybe eastern parts of the city, like JFK (but that would still be less likely than one hitting Nova Scotia), but that would be the closest I could ever see the eye of a major hurricane getting. A hurricane would have to travel inland at least some distance before hitting Manhattan directly. I actually think a Cat 3 hitting Nova Scotia is more likely than such a storm directly hitting Manhattan. One hitting Nova Scotia is probably more likely than one hitting any part of the city-- including Queens and perhaps even Nassau County. By the way did you hear about the new study done at Queens College showing that people who were in the womb during Sandy are much more likely to suffer from depression and ADHD today? It was a significant difference!

Hey it's understandable. Most winters suck where I live too, we're conditioned to them lol.

That "it's just around the corner" is what made me the angriest. It would have been okay if he just admitted he was wrong and cut his losses but NO he couldn't do that! And then he said that period of dry cold in January was a "victory" for him when the only people who saw snow lived in the Carolinas....ugh, horrible memories. 2002-03 made up for ALL of that though! Best part was I didn't have a subscription to him by then so I could enjoy it without having to listen to him brag. Wright Weather was awesome that winter-- my first winter on a weather board!

This is from earlier on in the year....I just got some new software to make the craters come out clearer.

It's a pattern with him. He's actually worse than a clown, because a clown usually does what they do without knowing any better or to get a laugh. JB knows exactly what he's doing and he does it to get more subscribers and to make more money. That makes him a liar and a thief.

I read all these articles in a few hours. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/mar/12/birthstrikers-meet-the-women-who-refuse-to-have-children-until-climate-change-ends https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/03/david-wallace-wells-on-climate-people-should-be-scared-im-scared https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/12/want-to-fight-climate-change-have-fewer-children https://www.theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/2019/feb/27/is-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-right-to-ask-if-the-climate-means-we-should-have-fewer-children https://www.theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/2019/feb/27/is-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-right-to-ask-if-the-climate-means-we-should-have-fewer-children https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/09/extinction-rebellion-activists-arrested-over-scottish-oil-protest https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/25/extinction-rebellion-activists-occupy-scottish-parliament https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/26/facts-about-our-ecological-crisis-are-incontrovertible-we-must-take-action https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/26/we-have-a-duty-to-act-hundreds-ready-to-go-to-jail-over-climate-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/18/this-is-just-the-beginning-freed-activists-return-to-fracking-site https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/26/anti-fracking-activists-jailed-for-blackpool-cuadrilla-protest https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/26/anti-fracking-activists-jailed-for-blackpool-cuadrilla-protest https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/18/two-directors-quit-fracking-firm-third-energy-amid-tory-rebellion-claims https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/25/blow-to-fracking-firms-as-uk-insists-on-financial-checks https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/aug/19/caroline-lucas-arrest-balcombe-anti-fracking https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/aug/18/fracking-protesters-march-sussex-balcombe-drilling https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/07/fracking-delayed-north-yorkshire-site-autumn-third-energy https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/05/cuadrilla-starts-work-on-lancashire-fracking-site-fylde https://drillordrop.com/2018/07/24/first-lock-on-challenge-to-cuadrilla-fracking-protest-injunction/ https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/24/cuadrilla-gets-go-ahead-to-start-fracking-at-lancashire-site https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/01/cuadrilla-secures-new-injunction-against-fracking-protesters https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/01/cuadrilla-secures-new-injunction-against-fracking-protesters https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/11/campaigner-challenges-ineos-in-court-over-order-curbing-fracking-protests https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/10/ineos-discloses-document-used-to-gain-injunction-on-fracking-protests https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/nov/02/fracking-cause-lancashire-quakes https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/jun/01/blackpool-earthquake-tremors-gas-drilling https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/17/fast-track-fracking-plan-by-uk-government-prompts-criticism https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/17/fast-track-fracking-plan-by-uk-government-prompts-criticism https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/08/uk-fracking-backlash-seven-out-of-eight-plans-rejected-in-2018 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/25/fracking-start-2018-shale-gas-uk-industry-protests https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/03/ineos-leads-lobbying-effort-to-get-out-of-paying-green-tax https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/28/british-firm-ineos-accused-bribes-bulldozers-approach-fracking https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/13/shale-gas-fracking-cameron-all-out https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/13/shale-gas-fracking-cameron-all-out https://drillordrop.com/2017/12/29/europa-seeks-extended-injunction-over-bury-hill-wood-site-in-surrey/ https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/feb/26/fracking-the-reality-the-risks-and-what-the-future-holds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/aug/13/government-will-step-in-if-councils-dont-fast-track-fracking-applications https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/23/fracking-firm-wins-extension-to-draconian-protest-injunction https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/23/fracking-firm-wins-extension-to-draconian-protest-injunction https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/07/vivienne-westwoods-son-challenges-ineos-injunction-on-fracking-protest https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/12/anti-fracking-campaigners-challenge-ineos-injunction-joe-corre-joe-boyd https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/31/moves-to-curb-democratic-fracking-protests-in-the-uk-extremely-worrying https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/07/another-oil-firm-seeks-sweeping-injunction-against-uk-protesters https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/31/sheffield-trees-campaigner-jail-flouting-injunction-calvin-payne https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/19/transport-secretary-injunction-stop-hs2-protesters-chris-grayling-london https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/12/climate-activists-glue-hands-to-uk-government-building-in-new-protest https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/10/plummeting-insect-numbers-threaten-collapse-of-nature https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/10/plummeting-insect-numbers-threaten-collapse-of-nature https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/30/humanity-wiped-out-animals-since-1970-major-report-finds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/21/human-race-just-001-of-all-life-but-has-destroyed-over-80-of-wild-mammals-study http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aan2683 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/21/assumed-safety-of-widespread-pesticide-use-is-false-says-top-government-scientist https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/06/farms-could-slash-pesticide-use-without-losses-research-reveals https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/07/un-experts-denounce-myth-pesticides-are-necessary-to-feed-the-world http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aaa1190 http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aam7470 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/29/pesticides-damage-survival-of-bee-colonies-landmark-study-shows https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/15/insect-collapse-we-are-destroying-our-life-support-systems https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/18/warning-of-ecological-armageddon-after-dramatic-plunge-in-insect-numbers https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/18/warning-of-ecological-armageddon-after-dramatic-plunge-in-insect-numbers https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/18/prison-protesting-fracking-justice https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/17/court-quashes-excessive-sentences-of-fracking-protesters https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/15/fracking-protesters-blockade-cuadrilla-site-where-uk-work-due-to-restart https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13053040 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/06/uk-fracking-given-go-ahead-as-lancashire-council-rejection-is-overturned https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/23/oil-bosses-have-given-390000-to-tories-conservatives-under-theresa-may https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/03/how-germany-quietly-turned-against-action-on-climate-change/ https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-election-angela-merkel-journey-from-madchen-to-mutti/ https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/19/world-leading-eco-vandal-angela-merkel-german-environmental https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/brazils-bolsonaro-would-unleash-a-war-on-the-environment https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/17/court-quashes-excessive-sentences-of-fracking-protesters https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/13/german-police-to-clear-treehouse-activists-after-six-year-standoff-environment-energy Congratulations on being one of our top readers globally – you've read 62 articles in the last year https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/19/world-leading-eco-vandal-angela-merkel-german-environmental https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-biofuels-merkel/bad-policy-not-biofuel-drive-food-prices-merkel-idUSKRA45973520080424 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/30/indonesia-fires-disaster-21st-century-world-media https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/19/world-leading-eco-vandal-angela-merkel-german-environmental https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/19/world-leading-eco-vandal-angela-merkel-german-environmental https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/19/world-leading-eco-vandal-angela-merkel-german-environmental https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1112114_german-chancellor-merkel-rejects-electric-car-quotas-for-europe-not-well-thought-out https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-election-merkel-idUSKBN1AS0FI https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/20/give-up-having-children-couples-save-planet-climate-crisis http://news.cornell.edu/stories/1999/09/miserable-life-overcrowded-earth-2100 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-clarkson-im-sure-youll-be-dying-to-hear-about-my-plans-for-a-population-implosion-k7x8pxz90 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/12/want-to-fight-climate-change-have-fewer-children http://www.newyorker.com/culture/persons-of-interest/the-case-for-not-being-born https://www.theguardian.com/women-in-leadership/2016/apr/08/nascar-female-driver-leilani-munter-racing-extinction-vegan-environment https://www.theguardian.com/global/the-coral-triangle/2015/dec/02/cove-directors-new-doc-warns-of-impending-ecological-catastrophe https://www.theguardian.com/women-in-leadership/2016/apr/08/nascar-female-driver-leilani-munter-racing-extinction-vegan-environment

Three scientists received 1.5-2 year sentences but were released after 3 months because of widespread public protests. They went right back to protesting at the fracking front lines :-) They were welcomed back as heroes!

I've been tracking what's been going on in the UK and their conservative Tory government is awful. They brought back fracking in spite of the earthquakes happening there and have been arresting peaceful protestors and putting them in jail-- including scientists and teachers! They are surveilling on peaceful protestors and sharing that info with fossil fuel companies so they can use that against them in court to get injunctions against peaceful protesting. And when local communities outlaw fracking the national government overturns those decisions..... https://www.instagram.com/p/CcX-rNIo8jR/ One example damiengayle Scientists protested outside Charing Cross police station after a marine biologist was held for more than 40 hours for taking part in a climate change protest. Emma Smart, 44, was arrested on Wednesday for glueing her hand to the windows of a government department. On Thursday, a photograph of her arrest was published on the front page of the Guardian. On Friday police were saying she would not be released before being brought before a court, which may not happen until Tuesday. Smart’s supporters say she is being held in a windowless cell with the light on 24 hours a day.

His forecast for 2001-02 was epically bad. That's what made me cancel my subscription.

NYC Subforum a few well known predictors. I don't want to call people out by name. The original forecast was for a below average snowfall winter but it turned on a dime after Christmas here.

Wasn't 1978-79 almost as cold as that?

People were using winters from the 1910s as analogs for 2010-11 lol The 2010-11 la nina was pretty amazing. Granted la ninas that come after el ninos tend to be very good. 1995-96 comes to mind too. But those should not be analogs for this winter, this isn't a la nina after an el nino lol. Maybe try something like 2000-01 instead? That was a third year la nina.

I have these cutie parrots nesting around here.

No one wants basement flooding trust me. The dry summer was AMAZING. I want that EVERY summer. Such perfect weather! We have gotten sick and tired of the nasty humid tropical rain forest buggy summers of the last few years so now we're finally back to our normal summers of the 80s and prior. Hopefully this is the long term pattern for years to come resulting from shifting back the AMO from the warm to the cool phase. I thought we might be headed towards dry summers when I hinted at it last spring.

It was nice to see a dry summer for a change. I had an idea tropical activity would be down this year after the slow start. We'll probably still make it to average but not the 15+ TC some were predicting.

https://www.livescience.com/climate-tipping-points-closer-than-realized On the positive side, the dumb species of humanity may be removed from this planet much sooner than they think. Climate 'points of no return' may be much closer than we thought By Harry Baker published 7 days ago The "tipping points" are also more numerous than researchers previously realized. (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) A new study has warned that irreversible climate "tipping points" are more numerous and close to being triggered than previously thought. (Image credit: Shutterstock) (opens in new tab) Climate tipping points — the "points of no return" past which key components of Earth's climate will begin to irreversibly break down — could be triggered by much lower temperatures than scientists previously thought, with some tipping points potentially already reached. There are also many more potential tipping points than scientists previously identified, according to a new study. In climatology, a tipping point is defined as a rise in global temperature past which a localized climate system, or "tipping element" — such as the Amazon rainforest or the Greenland ice sheet — starts to irreversibly decline. Once a tipping point has been reached, that tipping element will experience runaway effects that essentially doom it forever, even if global temperatures retreat below the tipping point. The idea of climate tipping points first emerged in a 2008 paper published in the journal PNAS, when researchers identified nine key tipping elements that could reach such a threshold due to human-caused climate change. In the new study, which was published Sept. 9 in the journal Science, a team of researchers reassessed data from more than 200 papers on the subject of tipping points published since 2008. They found that there are now 16 major tipping points, almost all of which could reach the point of no return if global warming continues beyond 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels. Earth has already warmed by more than 2 degrees F (1.1 C) above preindustrial levels and, if current warming trends continue, is on track to reach between 3.6 and 5.4 F (2 and 3 C) above preindustrial levels, the study authors said in a statement. "This sets Earth on course to cross multiple dangerous tipping points that will be disastrous for people across the world," study co-author Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said in the statement. Related: Is climate change making the weather worse? CLOSE Tipping points could be triggered much earlier than previosly expected, according to the new study. (Image credit: Shutterstock) (opens in new tab) When the researchers conducted their reassessment, they eliminated two of the original nine tipping points due to insufficient evidence — but then, they identified nine new ones that had been previously overlooked, bringing the toal to 16, they reported in the study. "Since I first assessed climate tipping points in 2008, the list has grown and our assessment of the risk they pose has increased dramatically," co-author Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter in the U.K. and lead author of the original 2008 tipping points paper, said in the statement. In the new study, the researchers calculated the exact temperature at which each tipping element would be likely to pass its point of no return. Their analysis revealed that five tipping elements — the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets; Arctic permafrost; tropical coral reefs; and a key ocean current in the Labrador Sea — are in the "danger zone," meaning they are quickly approaching their tipping points. Two of these danger zone tipping points, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, are already beyond their lowest potential tipping points of 1.4 F (0.8 C) and 1.8 F (1 C) above preindustrial times respectively, which suggests these two systems may already be beyond saving, researchers wrote. The other 11 tipping points are listed as "likely" or "possible" if warming continues past 2.7 F. Triggering climate tipping points will increase the severity and frequency of extreme events like wildfires. (Image credit: Shutterstock) (opens in new tab) Past estimates, such as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report, published in three parts in 2021 and 2022, suggested that most major tipping points would be reached only if Earth warmed past 3.6 F, which would give humanity more time to prepare mitigation and adaptation strategies. But according to the new study, those tipping points may be closer than expected. One explanation for this accelerated timeline is that researchers now fully understand the interconnectedness of tipping points. Better climate models now show that the fall of one tipping point could increase the likelihood of another's collapse. For example, if the Arctic permafrost melts due to rising temperatures, it will release more carbon into the atmosphere. This will further increase surface temperatures on land and in the oceans, thereby accelerating melt in major ice sheets and stressing coral reefs. In other words, tipping points are stacked up like dominoes; as soon as one falls, the others could swiftly follow. Related: Could climate change make humans go extinct? Therefore, it is imperative to drastically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions immediately before this irreversible chain reaction begins, the researchers warned. "To maintain liveable conditions on Earth, protect people from rising extremes, and enable stable societies, we must do everything possible to prevent crossing tipping points," Rockström said. "Every tenth of a degree counts." Researchers warn that we must rapidly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. (Image credit: Shutterstock) (opens in new tab) But this will be no easy task. To have just a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 2.7 F, greenhouse gas emissions would have to be cut in half by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050, the researchers said in the statement. Given the meager progress in combating climate change, this goal may seem unachievable. In fact, in some ways, we seem to be moving backward; in June, a U.S. Supreme Court ruling severely limited the federal government's ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. RELATED STORIES —Climate change has been altering Earth's axis for at least 30 years —Earth's lower atmosphere is expanding due to climate change —Climate change is making Earth dimmer However, the study authors argue that it could still be possible to achieve such drastic changes through a different type of tipping point: a social one. This is a theoretical threshold in public opinion that, once passed, will force governments and large corporations to take drastic climate action, the scientists said in the statement. The only problem is that this social tipping point must be reached well before the climate tipping points are passed — otherwise, it will be too little, too late. Originally published on Live Science.

Yep..... winter is a two month season. I'd argue about including may in summer though, because we've had some cold (and even snowy) Mays.... summer still starts in June but does last through at least September. winter: J/F spring: M/A/M summer: J/J/A/S fall: O/N/D So the real change is that summer is now twice as long as winter.