LibertyBell

I used to think that too, but I'm not so sure. I've read research going in both directions about warmer waters causing more TCs and also fewer TCs but the ones that occur are stronger ones. There's another consideration-- what if the warmer waters are actually changing the predominant path of TCs? East coast TC seem to have gotten less frequent than they were in the 30s through the 50s. Now we seem to have more Gulf Coast TC and also the warmest waters seem to be further out in the ocean so perhaps that's why they seem to hit eastern Canada more frequently now? We just got out of a + AMO period and we didn't have nearly as many east coast hits as we had as the last time we were one of these periods.

They're saying the drought made the trees weak. I heard more about the one in NY, a tree came down on a car in Queens with the driver still inside.

They're talking about frost in the Poconos. Did you hear reports about trees going down? I lost a large sugar maple in the Poconos that brought down other, newer trees. I've also heard a report on the news of a large tree coming down in New York.

Wow, I thought it was normal to have at least one low temp in the 40s after the equinox. Highs in the 60s and Lows in the 40s.

That Hog Island Hurricane would have been a huge impact for us if it was stronger. 1938 I wonder about if it went on the same trajectory further west would it be as strong since it would be scraping the coast or would its forward speed keep it from losing any strength by friction from land? How come no one has been talking about this storm for next week and posting maps, etc? On the news they've been talking a tropical impact for next week.

Remember what I said to you last Spring....I felt like we were going to turn the corner back towards dry summers and here we are. Looks like the AMO going towards its cool phase played a big part in this? It's going to be nice to get into more of an 80s to early 90s kind of summer pattern again!

I loved this summer I hope we get many more like this. Really tired of all the rainy buggy humid summers and it's so nice to get a dry/hot summer again.

the la nina after el nino connection is stronger

Yes that was an important change! This is going to be stronger for them than Sandy was for us! I wonder if the storm surge will be over 10 feet?

I was looking at the one from the 1800s that hugged the coast and thought we'd need something like that but that was so far out of the ordinary it seems to be unlikely. One thing that makes me pessimistic about it (maybe I should say optimistic lol) is that it always seems like we get these fronts that push these storms out to sea or the storms go into the southeast. It seems like we need a perfect thread the needle scenario to have a storm bend back into the coast up here. I've seen both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland get hit by hurricanes several times though.

Thats what I thought too when I saw that Hermine went to the wave off the African coast.

Maybe NYC will get into the 40s tonight

Whats the previous record holder-- Hazel?

Would it have been an actual hurricane if it occurred a month earlier? Another question, a month earlier would it have taken a more "regular" N to NNE track? I'm still highly suspicious that NYC can ever get a direct hit by a major hurricane-- our geography and the geometry of the coast forbids it. I can see the eye of such a storm going into southern NJ or central or eastern LI but NYC? Not really. Maybe eastern parts of the city, like JFK (but that would still be less likely than one hitting Nova Scotia), but that would be the closest I could ever see the eye of a major hurricane getting. A hurricane would have to travel inland at least some distance before hitting Manhattan directly. I actually think a Cat 3 hitting Nova Scotia is more likely than such a storm directly hitting Manhattan. One hitting Nova Scotia is probably more likely than one hitting any part of the city-- including Queens and perhaps even Nassau County. By the way did you hear about the new study done at Queens College showing that people who were in the womb during Sandy are much more likely to suffer from depression and ADHD today? It was a significant difference!

Hey it's understandable. Most winters suck where I live too, we're conditioned to them lol.

That "it's just around the corner" is what made me the angriest. It would have been okay if he just admitted he was wrong and cut his losses but NO he couldn't do that! And then he said that period of dry cold in January was a "victory" for him when the only people who saw snow lived in the Carolinas....ugh, horrible memories. 2002-03 made up for ALL of that though! Best part was I didn't have a subscription to him by then so I could enjoy it without having to listen to him brag. Wright Weather was awesome that winter-- my first winter on a weather board!

This is from earlier on in the year....I just got some new software to make the craters come out clearer.

It's a pattern with him. He's actually worse than a clown, because a clown usually does what they do without knowing any better or to get a laugh. JB knows exactly what he's doing and he does it to get more subscribers and to make more money. That makes him a liar and a thief.

I read all these articles in a few hours. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/mar/12/birthstrikers-meet-the-women-who-refuse-to-have-children-until-climate-change-ends https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/03/david-wallace-wells-on-climate-people-should-be-scared-im-scared https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/12/want-to-fight-climate-change-have-fewer-children https://www.theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/2019/feb/27/is-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-right-to-ask-if-the-climate-means-we-should-have-fewer-children https://www.theguardian.com/environment/shortcuts/2019/feb/27/is-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-right-to-ask-if-the-climate-means-we-should-have-fewer-children https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/09/extinction-rebellion-activists-arrested-over-scottish-oil-protest https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/25/extinction-rebellion-activists-occupy-scottish-parliament https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/26/facts-about-our-ecological-crisis-are-incontrovertible-we-must-take-action https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/26/we-have-a-duty-to-act-hundreds-ready-to-go-to-jail-over-climate-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/18/this-is-just-the-beginning-freed-activists-return-to-fracking-site https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/26/anti-fracking-activists-jailed-for-blackpool-cuadrilla-protest https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/26/anti-fracking-activists-jailed-for-blackpool-cuadrilla-protest https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/18/two-directors-quit-fracking-firm-third-energy-amid-tory-rebellion-claims https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/25/blow-to-fracking-firms-as-uk-insists-on-financial-checks https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/aug/19/caroline-lucas-arrest-balcombe-anti-fracking https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/aug/18/fracking-protesters-march-sussex-balcombe-drilling https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/07/fracking-delayed-north-yorkshire-site-autumn-third-energy https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/05/cuadrilla-starts-work-on-lancashire-fracking-site-fylde https://drillordrop.com/2018/07/24/first-lock-on-challenge-to-cuadrilla-fracking-protest-injunction/ https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/24/cuadrilla-gets-go-ahead-to-start-fracking-at-lancashire-site https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/01/cuadrilla-secures-new-injunction-against-fracking-protesters https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/01/cuadrilla-secures-new-injunction-against-fracking-protesters https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/11/campaigner-challenges-ineos-in-court-over-order-curbing-fracking-protests https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/10/ineos-discloses-document-used-to-gain-injunction-on-fracking-protests https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/nov/02/fracking-cause-lancashire-quakes https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/jun/01/blackpool-earthquake-tremors-gas-drilling https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/17/fast-track-fracking-plan-by-uk-government-prompts-criticism https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/17/fast-track-fracking-plan-by-uk-government-prompts-criticism https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/08/uk-fracking-backlash-seven-out-of-eight-plans-rejected-in-2018 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/25/fracking-start-2018-shale-gas-uk-industry-protests https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/03/ineos-leads-lobbying-effort-to-get-out-of-paying-green-tax https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/28/british-firm-ineos-accused-bribes-bulldozers-approach-fracking https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/13/shale-gas-fracking-cameron-all-out https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/13/shale-gas-fracking-cameron-all-out https://drillordrop.com/2017/12/29/europa-seeks-extended-injunction-over-bury-hill-wood-site-in-surrey/ https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/feb/26/fracking-the-reality-the-risks-and-what-the-future-holds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/aug/13/government-will-step-in-if-councils-dont-fast-track-fracking-applications https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/23/fracking-firm-wins-extension-to-draconian-protest-injunction https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/23/fracking-firm-wins-extension-to-draconian-protest-injunction https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/07/vivienne-westwoods-son-challenges-ineos-injunction-on-fracking-protest https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/12/anti-fracking-campaigners-challenge-ineos-injunction-joe-corre-joe-boyd https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/31/moves-to-curb-democratic-fracking-protests-in-the-uk-extremely-worrying https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/07/another-oil-firm-seeks-sweeping-injunction-against-uk-protesters https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/31/sheffield-trees-campaigner-jail-flouting-injunction-calvin-payne https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/19/transport-secretary-injunction-stop-hs2-protesters-chris-grayling-london https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/12/climate-activists-glue-hands-to-uk-government-building-in-new-protest https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/10/plummeting-insect-numbers-threaten-collapse-of-nature https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/10/plummeting-insect-numbers-threaten-collapse-of-nature https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/30/humanity-wiped-out-animals-since-1970-major-report-finds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/21/human-race-just-001-of-all-life-but-has-destroyed-over-80-of-wild-mammals-study http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aan2683 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/21/assumed-safety-of-widespread-pesticide-use-is-false-says-top-government-scientist https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/06/farms-could-slash-pesticide-use-without-losses-research-reveals https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/07/un-experts-denounce-myth-pesticides-are-necessary-to-feed-the-world http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aaa1190 http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aam7470 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/29/pesticides-damage-survival-of-bee-colonies-landmark-study-shows https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/15/insect-collapse-we-are-destroying-our-life-support-systems https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/18/warning-of-ecological-armageddon-after-dramatic-plunge-in-insect-numbers https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/18/warning-of-ecological-armageddon-after-dramatic-plunge-in-insect-numbers https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/18/prison-protesting-fracking-justice https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/17/court-quashes-excessive-sentences-of-fracking-protesters https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/15/fracking-protesters-blockade-cuadrilla-site-where-uk-work-due-to-restart https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13053040 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/06/uk-fracking-given-go-ahead-as-lancashire-council-rejection-is-overturned https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/23/oil-bosses-have-given-390000-to-tories-conservatives-under-theresa-may https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/03/how-germany-quietly-turned-against-action-on-climate-change/ https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-election-angela-merkel-journey-from-madchen-to-mutti/ https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/19/world-leading-eco-vandal-angela-merkel-german-environmental https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/brazils-bolsonaro-would-unleash-a-war-on-the-environment https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/17/court-quashes-excessive-sentences-of-fracking-protesters https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/13/german-police-to-clear-treehouse-activists-after-six-year-standoff-environment-energy Congratulations on being one of our top readers globally – you've read 62 articles in the last year https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/19/world-leading-eco-vandal-angela-merkel-german-environmental https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-biofuels-merkel/bad-policy-not-biofuel-drive-food-prices-merkel-idUSKRA45973520080424 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/30/indonesia-fires-disaster-21st-century-world-media https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/19/world-leading-eco-vandal-angela-merkel-german-environmental https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/19/world-leading-eco-vandal-angela-merkel-german-environmental https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/19/world-leading-eco-vandal-angela-merkel-german-environmental https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1112114_german-chancellor-merkel-rejects-electric-car-quotas-for-europe-not-well-thought-out https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-election-merkel-idUSKBN1AS0FI https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/20/give-up-having-children-couples-save-planet-climate-crisis http://news.cornell.edu/stories/1999/09/miserable-life-overcrowded-earth-2100 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-clarkson-im-sure-youll-be-dying-to-hear-about-my-plans-for-a-population-implosion-k7x8pxz90 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/12/want-to-fight-climate-change-have-fewer-children http://www.newyorker.com/culture/persons-of-interest/the-case-for-not-being-born https://www.theguardian.com/women-in-leadership/2016/apr/08/nascar-female-driver-leilani-munter-racing-extinction-vegan-environment https://www.theguardian.com/global/the-coral-triangle/2015/dec/02/cove-directors-new-doc-warns-of-impending-ecological-catastrophe https://www.theguardian.com/women-in-leadership/2016/apr/08/nascar-female-driver-leilani-munter-racing-extinction-vegan-environment

Three scientists received 1.5-2 year sentences but were released after 3 months because of widespread public protests. They went right back to protesting at the fracking front lines :-) They were welcomed back as heroes!

I've been tracking what's been going on in the UK and their conservative Tory government is awful. They brought back fracking in spite of the earthquakes happening there and have been arresting peaceful protestors and putting them in jail-- including scientists and teachers! They are surveilling on peaceful protestors and sharing that info with fossil fuel companies so they can use that against them in court to get injunctions against peaceful protesting. And when local communities outlaw fracking the national government overturns those decisions..... https://www.instagram.com/p/CcX-rNIo8jR/ One example damiengayle Scientists protested outside Charing Cross police station after a marine biologist was held for more than 40 hours for taking part in a climate change protest. Emma Smart, 44, was arrested on Wednesday for glueing her hand to the windows of a government department. On Thursday, a photograph of her arrest was published on the front page of the Guardian. On Friday police were saying she would not be released before being brought before a court, which may not happen until Tuesday. Smart’s supporters say she is being held in a windowless cell with the light on 24 hours a day.

His forecast for 2001-02 was epically bad. That's what made me cancel my subscription.

NYC Subforum a few well known predictors. I don't want to call people out by name. The original forecast was for a below average snowfall winter but it turned on a dime after Christmas here.

Wasn't 1978-79 almost as cold as that?

People were using winters from the 1910s as analogs for 2010-11 lol The 2010-11 la nina was pretty amazing. Granted la ninas that come after el ninos tend to be very good. 1995-96 comes to mind too. But those should not be analogs for this winter, this isn't a la nina after an el nino lol. Maybe try something like 2000-01 instead? That was a third year la nina.