LibertyBell

I like the general broadbrushing and probability forecasts the NWS does, it's much easier to forecast general temperatures as opposed to specific storms. In addition to that, I wonder if posting past analogs would also help. If anyone posted late 80s analogs, I think people would immediately know what we were dealing it-- at least those of us who lived through that time period. Such a situation where DC gets more snow than NYC isn't as uncommon as some think. It was much more common in the past, but it can still happen.

No one said that Long Island would be under 30 feet of ocean, but what we are definitely seeing is sunny day flooding, something that did not happen before. And it's not just Long Island it's happening on-- it's why military bases near the water are being moved 10+ miles inland. Norfolk and Charleston are prime examples of where this is happening.

Definitely limit OP to 7 days at most and past that ensembles + likely analogs. Trust me if someone said, hey, this is a late 80s pattern, all enthusiasm would have been curbed, especially for those who lived through that. I never bought into anything because I lived through 1989-90.

But Chris, it's not really information. Specific details are so inaccurate as to be absolutely worthless that far out. It's better to just show above or below normal temperatures and ban the posting of specific storms unless you're going to post analogs to the past (for which the late 80s are are a really good analog to now.) People will always get excited-- we all do. But the reality is, nothing can be known beyond 7 days except for general temperatures. It's why the NWS posts probability forecasts. We might not like them, but that's that can really be known that far out.

let's call out the irresponsible people who thought it was a good idea to extend models past 7 days, was this for more clicks?

we can regulate it, the government should ban all models past 7 days

I actually blame the people who run the models, why dont they stop running models after 7 days?

its actually normal for the middle atlantic to do better for stretches (see 80s).

this is what happened in 1989-90

cold and DRY* January

but it's normal

this is actually normal when you dont have many coastal storms. there are two primary west-east track, one is to our south the other to our north 1989-1990 had way more snow in DC too the 1980s were in general much snowier both to our south and to our north. Look up these storms Vet Day 1987 February 1989 December 1989 in that last one we got rain and thunderstorms while DC got snow

we're using that fictitious 30 year average Chris, in reality it was a slightly milder than normal December, so JFK portrays it best, close to 1 degree above normal in actuality

it was better than any fireworks display!!

you had hail too, we all did

I guess it was hail, it didn't even completely melt here yet, there's small powdery crystal stuff outside and it can't be sleet

I don't think that was hail was it? Just really heavy rain with lots of lightning and thunder! That was a spring storm for us! I'd love to see something like this during the day.

Is that the confluence causing the snow to dry up before it reaches the coast? Cant be changeover issues lol.

the only above normal snowfall winter during the 80s was 82-83 and it wasn't even above normal but more like near normal because of the big blizzard. 30 inches plus is required for above normal snowfall and that never happened between 1977-78 and 1993-94

February 1983 was more memorable than any storm since February 1978 and until January 1996

that's probably why those kind of winters usually have average snowfall seasons. 1993-94 and 2013-14 were different because there were just so many storms lol. No 20"+ blockbusters but lots of moderate and a few major events too and many snow to ice scenarios.

The greatest and longest duration snow cover I've ever seen! My backyard had so much snow that it looked like the snow was up to my windows! You rarely if ever see that around here on the south shore.

a lot of our greatest arctic outbreaks were like this here's the below 0 ones I remember: January 1977, January 1979, Christmas 1980, January 1982, January 1984, January 1985, January 1994, February 2016 Notice how their return times have become much longer.... They became much more rare after 1985 and especially after 1994....... 1993-94 had MUCH more snow than ANY of the others (and lots of ice too!) 2015-16 had our greatest and only 30"+ snowstorm here.

1995-96 and 2010-11 had major ones on both sides. 8-14 in December 1995 , 20-32 in January 1996 18-30 in December 2010, 15-20 in January 2011

Has it ever happened both on the front and the back side? Maybe in 1995-96 and 2010-11?