LibertyBell

December average of 39 is a total joke too. NYC climate was reclassified when our coldest month ceased to be 32.0 or below, we are now subtropical. If you go back to the 1800s and even prior, both January and February averaged in the upper 20s and February used to be colder than January.

Isn't that the way lake effect works though-- it's usually slightly elevated and a little bit away from the lake shore.

what did he end up saying?

Since you're a data buff, maybe you would find this interesting too: What's the coldest January with less than 3 inches of snow? What's the coldest month with less than 3 inches of snow (could be DJF)? What's the coldest overall season with less than 20 inches of snow? Less than 10 inches of snow?

it changes after January 10th, but I've always wondered why there's this asymmetry between sunrises and sunsets.

*luck* keeps getting mentioned but that's a copout. The dry suppressive nature of this pattern was talked about even before January started.

I wonder what the reason for this asymmetry is? why do sunrises not get earlier when the sunsets keep getting later?

when is ice going to start forming on our back bays?

I've noticed that you need a strong el nino to have the south shore get more snow than the north shore-- all the south shore's truly big snowstorms happened in a strong el nino-- February 1983, PD2, January 2016.

it's not luck though, there are a few things you need to remember 1) this area is extremely sensitive and needs things to be *just right* since we are in between two tracks and we can suffer from both suppression and overamp 2) it's much easier to have a cutter than a snowstorm because cutter tracks encompass a much larger area than what we need for a snowstorm 3) a bad pacific can easily overpower a good atlantic and the northern stream is what makes the pacific bad right now 4) and a common theme here, there are MANY more ways to miss a snowstorm than there are to get a hit.

Long Island's own version of lake effect snow.

January 2016 comes to mind.... JFK 40 inches of snow 40 degrees average temperature that winter.

I would far prefer Jonas ;-)

but bring it farther west next time.

But February 2018 which hit 80 still had a 4 inch snowfall that month

the Knicks? They are overworking their players and will be burnt out (or injured) come playoff time.

I also think about what we had in October and the first half of November and that was bad too-- it reminded me of August 1995.

The problem is stopping climate change won't be enough, because with all the horrible things humanity is done, it will take at least a hundred years to fix even if we stopped emissions today (not happening), and the situation will keep getting worse, so I feel that some geoengineering will be required. The concept of weaponizing weather for warfare is truly terrifying!

It reminds me of what happened in 06-07, the back half of winter was 8 weeks of cold. But didn't our cold start in December? With a short break at the end of the month.

Me too, getting rid of the mold allergies would be absolutely awesome. We're fine with 40 inches of precip, 50+ inches is way too much.

when is that change to warm weather supposed to come now, Tony? at this rate a below 30.0 mean in NYC for January is within reach.

The interesting thing about the tweet from your previous post is the idea that extreme (below zero) cold is blocked by the warmer than normal Great Lakes.

1953 - A severe icestorm in the northeastern U.S. produced up to four inches of ice in Pennsylvania, and two to three inches in southeastern New York State. In southern New England the ice coated a layer of snow up to 20 inches deep. The storm resulted in 31 deaths and 2.5 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) omg, how much did we have in NYC and Long Island and in NE PA? It sounds like it was historic down here! Southeastern NY is us!

lol we're right smack dab in the middle of 80s winters 1981-82 and 1985-86, Don. Those weren't bad winters at all! 1981-82 had memorable cold and snowfall in both January and April !! And 1985-86 was actually a very snowy winter in Monmouth county and points south!

I think we've been trending towards drier months for awhile now and I expect this to continue in the following years. This isn't a GW thing it's a cyclic thing. Early 2010s was a much wetter period than the one we've now begun.