NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Looks like two bands rotating in from the SE. The first runs from SW CT down through Westchester, Rockland and points SW into NJ. Then an area of subsidence in between. The second band is about to enter LI and the rest of the coast off the ocean. Probably easily 1-2" per hour in the Western band and 2-4" per hour in the one coming off the ocean.
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The new HRRR is trending away from the dry slot idea for the immediate coast.
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I noticed that but I think it's more of a low level dry air intrusion given the close proximity of the MLC.
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It also pushes the heaviest banding up into NE PA and SE NY by tonight.
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From what a few mets on Twitter that I trust have said, the NAM has been too wet and the HRRR has been too dry so far.
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It's just been light snow in Rockland so far. Looks to be kicking it up towards moderate over the last 30 minutes.
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The HRRR retrogrades the surface low towards the coast and then stalls it around 22z tonight. This allows for the mixing line to work up into Rockland and Westchester.
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The coastal will flip winds to out of the NE and the heavy precip will cool the column. Stop whining, there’s no crying in meterology.
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Nothing here yet in Rockland County.
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Still nothing here in Rockland County
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I stopped caring about local weather forecasters opinions 20 years ago when I figured out how to read models myself.
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3k NAM 10:1 map shows 34” IMBY. Where do I sign?
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I like 12-15” for NYC. 6-12” for LI and Central Jersey. 12-18” for LHV and 18-24” for Eastern PA and NW NJ.
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My thinking today is that the heaviest totals will end up just N&W of 95. The ULL is forecasted to be much further North than yesterday.
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Some encouraging trends with the 12z suite but it's questionable as to how far back the pendulum can swing in this setup.
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Things can always change. No absolutes in meteorology. But you also can't disregard the trends.
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It's very hard to get significant precip up here when you have a positively tilted trough. You can thank the confluence over Northern New England for this. The GFS underplayed the extent of the blocking. The setup now definitely favors the DC to Philly corridor.