NJwx85

The 20"+ amounts from a few days ago are off the table but this will still be a double digit snowfall for many with potential for a few surprises depending on where the best banding sets up. The 12z GFS was actually quite a bit better. If you look at the last four runs of the GFS at 500mb valid 18z Saturday, the position of the ULL is actually back to where it was on yesterdays 12z run. It ticked East at both 18z and 00z, then back West at 06z and now at 12z. The last three runs of the GFS have also trended towards the ULL closing off sooner. The Northern stream shortwave has also slowed down considerably the last few runs. If that Southern piece can get out ahead of the trough, it will dig more, amplify the trough and we will be in business. Not saying that will happen but that's what we need at this point.

Not a chance. That was a relatively weak low that crawled because of enormous blocking.

00Z NAM is running. So far looks like less energy is being held back in the SW.

The long range NAM is fools gold with East coast storms. Doesn't matter how many times you say it.

Every time a big threat shows up people give the long range NAM more weight than they should even though every educated poster says time and time again how it cannot be trusted. In this type of setup you want the NAM beyond 48hrs to show rain for Long Island and Boston in order to feel confident. It's always overamplified and corrects inside day 2.

The NAM is going to be way East, like the GFS.

I see very subtle changes so far on the NAM. If anything the southern stream energy looks stronger than 12z.

This is what I spent nearly 10 posts trying to explain but some people just don't want to hear it. You cannot just look at the surface. The surface is for weenies.

I don't know if I would use the word most, but it was a fine run for the time frame that we're out. The GFS and the Euro are still more than 100+ miles apart in terms of how far West the significant snow gets.

As mets have said, we haven't established any trends yet. It takes at least one full day of model runs to establish that. You cannot expect models to show the same outcome each and every run. You have to look at what's going on in the mid levels and see if what's depicted makes sense. Clown maps are called what they are for a reason.

These things happen. The next run could show 30" and everyone will be sucked right back in. You would have better odds playing the lottery than attempting to predict what the weather is going to do when you have so many moving pieces.

This right here is the difference between being a weenie and an educated weather enthusiast. You cannot get over emotional or speak in absolutes. Tomorrow night if the models are still showing this is a miss then we will know it's over.

The trough is more amplified at 12z Saturday on the 12z run vs the 06z run. That wasn't necessarily reflected at the surface. This double barrel look doesn't make sense to me.

Compare the 12z GFS vs the 12z Euro at 500mb valid 12z Saturday and you will see that the two are nothing alike.

The surface isn't nearly as important as the improvements that occurred with the trough.

Don't worry as much about the position of the surface low. It still closed off at H5 over the Carolinas and the trough was more amplified. Both improvements in the upper air as compared to the 06z run. Is it what we were hoping for? Have to see the surface maps first.

You're comparing it to yesterdays 12z run.

This run is more amplified than 06z. If you don't know what you're looking at please don't comment. It just confuses everyone.

The 12z GEFS still has a decent cluster of members near the benchmark at 00z Sunday. A lot less spread overall than the previous two runs.

Okay I'm speaking about the people on this board, mostly snow and weather enthusiasts. Not the general public.

A lot of people forget that in general when it comes to snow for the I-95 corridor, the deck is stacked against us. Theirs a reason why seasonal snowfall averages are what they are. You need everything to come together perfectly and a major component to that is blocking. The fact that we're even looking at such a big storm in such a progressive pattern is amazing in itself. More or less relying in this case on the phase/energy being so explosive that it turns into a dynamic bomb.

I believe the Northern stream wave that's going to eventually dig and phase is still located up near Alaska. Not in a great area in terms of sampling. I think we still have time for a significant shift but we're starting to run out of time.

The real problem on the GFS is that the flow is too progressive and it might be correct given the weak blocking. This run of the 12z GFS closes off Southeast of Cape Cod. I believe yesterdays 12z run closed off near the twin forks. About a 100 mile difference and why your surface low is so far East. That surface low is going to be to the NE side of that closed off ULL. Western areas need about a 200 mile Westward shift to get into double digit snowfall while Long Island needs about a 100 mile West shift on the GFS. The 12z GGEM is a complete disaster for everyone. Never closes off. Flow is way too progressive. Luckily it's a terrible model. The 12z NAM closes off near the NJ coast in an almost perfect spot. I haven't seen the 06z Euro 500mb but I'm guessing it was similar.

Blocking would have helped some with this storm but if too strong would have made this a DC to AC special.

The GFS except for a hiccup run here and there has been very insistent for days that this slips wide right. The Euro on the other hand has flipped flopped some. The NAM is still out of range but I like it’s general idea. Overall confidence is lower than I would have expected it to be this time yesterday and the kicker coming through the lakes Friday morning is worrysome.