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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    Looking at the guidance tonight, receiving most of our snow from FGEN and not the primary low may end up being a blessing in disguise.
  2. hlcater
    GFS is a tick back west and a little wetter.
  3. hlcater
    Euro is a glorified frontal passage out here. Good lord.
  4. hlcater
    We still may see blizzard conditions with the arctic front, but anything truly noteworthy (like that is still talked about years later) for our area is probably off the table. What is interesting is that the low track actually ends up being quite favorable, it's just that on these runs tonight, the surface low is hardly existent as it transits IL.
  5. hlcater
    Trends pretty terrible for those west of the lakes tonight. Hard to get a good storm if your low doesn't deepen until E MI. First call 3-5" with some wind afterward. (I'll clarify by saying at this juncture I am confident in at least 3-5", not that we cant potentially get more)
  6. hlcater
    This is a bit of an overperformance. 1/2” down and perhaps 1-2 more to go.
  7. hlcater
    Regardless of eventual placement, the trend to wrap up slower likely prevents Iowa from cashing in on something truly special.
  8. hlcater
    Holy mother of god this run
  9. hlcater
    Could see much of the sub under blizzard warnings with this one. Recent snowfall (or ongoing snow?), combined with single digits above and below zero and 50-60mph winds is gonna create life threatening travel conditions region wide. All at the worst time of year.
  10. hlcater
    Anytime hoss
  11. hlcater
    You seem pretty invested for someone that is “not invested”
  12. hlcater
    Probably also the fact that the cold side of this system is (very) cold. There is 0.30 of 6H QPF falling behind the arctic front with wind gusts of 40-50mph. It really reminds me of that system a few years ago with the flash freeze and snow falling behind the crashing front which was admittedly some of the worst winter wx conditions we've seen in recent years, despite only getting 4-5" of snow.
  13. hlcater
    I will say what a refreshing pattern running up to Christmas. Consistent cold, multiple snow chances one of which could be significant, and these conditions are fairly widespread across the sub. Something we really haven't seen in the past decade.
  14. hlcater
    That low in Arkansas was about to go ballistic. Probably a historic bomb if the end of the run was allowed to play out
  15. hlcater
    Yea the euro was about to go ultra giga at 240
  16. hlcater
    8/10/20
  17. hlcater
    There were a few flakes mixed in as well. I estimated it to be something like 70/30.
  18. hlcater
    First flakes of the season here
  19. hlcater
    Finally kooch map szn
  20. hlcater
    Nah we’ll get more when we’re clocking 4”/hr in the death band
  21. hlcater
    Fall colors are really vivid this year. Paint Creek in NE IA
  22. hlcater
    GEFS likes this one as well
  23. hlcater
    Incredible watching an obviously sheared cyclone intensify anyways. Especially one that just finished an EWRC in the face of that shear. I really wasn’t 100% certain it’d be able to stabilize the core after the EWRC, let alone intensify at a fairly rapid pace.
  24. hlcater
    FL winds exceeding 140kts in the NE quad. SFMRs of 110kts. Pressures ~942. Probably see an upgrade to cat 4 here on the 5am update.
  25. hlcater
    The fact that the deepest convection is actually on the upshear side of the cyclone likely heralds intensification/resilience in the face of shear at least during the next 6-12 hours.
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