I think there might be an issue with the smoke originating out of the domain of the HRRR so it isn't picking it up? At least I remember reading something like that on twitter last week. Pretty sure I saw a RAP product showing the smoke though.
Model skill in the medium / long range def goes down this time of year.
It shouldn't be surprising to see big run to run changes at extended lead times.
4.1" final, probably the most disappointing storm since the march 2010 retro storm
28.7" on the season - on track to be the worst since at least 01/02? maybe 94/95?