probably not .. can't see there being much more than some peas or maybe dimes in the strongest storms
Would be nice to get some rain though .. somehow only 0.12" in the stratus the past week
I think there might be an issue with the smoke originating out of the domain of the HRRR so it isn't picking it up? At least I remember reading something like that on twitter last week. Pretty sure I saw a RAP product showing the smoke though.
Model skill in the medium / long range def goes down this time of year.
It shouldn't be surprising to see big run to run changes at extended lead times.