ma blizzard

Seriously .. this is still at D4-D5, its crazy to say anything definitive at this time range.

IMO, watching how this interaction plays out will be pivotal

In this case I think QPF is misleading .. 500/700 track was really good. If we kept this look, no doubt QPF would increase as we go forward IMO

Just for ref when we compare this to 12/92 ..

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us1211.php

the SLP tucking in like that would be fine if it was doing so off ACY .. just can't have the ULL gaining latitude like that

500 trended deeper .. if only we can get this type of solution but displaced 50-75 mi south

wish we were there KPSF 010204Z AUTO 29016G28KT 1/4SM +SN FG FEW004 OVC013 00/M02 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 28028/0201 P0001 T00001022

boundary slipping S / SW a bit .. def making some headway around rt2 corridor passed thru KFIT about 40 mins ago

yep just heard that one too .. absolutely pounding sleet

maybe the MU 20s in SNH start oozing towards RT2 corridor later this afternoon / evening as we get pressure falls to the south? idk but I have been very surprised how well 2m temps have been modeled so far

legit light snow and flakes during this lull in precip

33 and rain

Not excited about the recent trends for around ORH .. hoping for sleet but very concerned about how much QPF could be in the form of freezing rain. That 850-700 mb warm layer is very deep and warm.

I'd be shocked if the meso models don't start trending colder at the surface as we get closer .. there is no doubt the models are underestimating / not properly resolving the ageostrophic component. We have seen this movie before As TIP mentioned earlier today, I wonder if there will be a pseudo CF feature separating the drainage flow in the interior from strong easterly flow from the coast?

12/23/17? super impressive cold tuck overnight sat set the stage for a not well forecasted 1/4"-1/3" for a lot of central / eastern MA not sure if you are thinking of this one, but that's what came to mind.

2/7/03? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2003/us0207.php

2"-4"?

its not a good model... but to be fair I would expect a lot of variability run to run at this time frame (D4-5). Depending on the timing/ interaction with the s/w dropping south out of Canada, could mean anything from OTS to a cutter or anything in-between. The northern stream s/w is also in the middle of the Pacific right now so I'm sure there will be plenty of run to-run changes over the next couple days. We all know deep down it will be a thread the needle type situation to get a 12z GFS esque scenario anyway

I'm not sure about this .. the only legit events you could make a case for something like this happening are 1888 and 1978. Def a reason for a return rate nearing 100 years / event .. Off hand I really would like to toss those weenie 48"+ #s .. but the areal extent of the 30"-40"+ zone is crazy. Maybe everyone was measuring drifts? idk

legit sn- in brighton center

def had some flakes mix in by Brighton center over the past half hr