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PowellVolz

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Everything posted by PowellVolz

  1. PowellVolz
    3k NAM is really close to the GFS. One says snow, one says rain. .
  2. PowellVolz
    The GFS is showing rain at this point but this looks like snow. Also it looks like the winds are N/NE down to the surface. Am I reading this right? 0c is down to 950. Isn’t that low enough? .
  3. PowellVolz
    Knoxville was 25ish that morning and it didn’t stick to the main roads. Bridges and off/on ramps became pretty bad but that was with only around an inch of snow. That being said, it’s never crossed my mind even at 2-3” that this snow would stick to the roads. Maybe the shaded areas. .
  4. PowellVolz
    Actually what I missed was not looking to see where we went -0c and it looks to be no higher/lower than 850mb. You’re right, definitely wet snow. .
  5. PowellVolz
    Maybe I’m reading this wrong but everything looks +0c. What am I missing? .
  6. PowellVolz
    MRX...... [emoji849] the NAM and Euro are together on this, they actually get better overnight and our boys lower the snow amount across most of the CWA? I feel like I read this every time there’s a chance for snow. .
  7. PowellVolz
    And I’d like to know what they have seen to change their mind, especially how the euro jumped in. .
  8. PowellVolz
    And just like that, MRX updates their map just now to pretty much remove all snow in Knoxville. .
  9. PowellVolz
  10. PowellVolz
    Not trying to beat this into the ground but let’s not forget the Precip shield has been further NW the last several systems than what was shown. .
  11. PowellVolz
    I’m just about 100% positive that’s the inverted trough snow we got. I remembered it was on a Wednesday and was pretty sure it was in 14’ .
  12. PowellVolz
    Absolutely. What I was thinking is if the boundary was in the valley, the SE flow over the mountains might down slop before it was lifted back up. I very well could be overthinking this and cramming to much into a small space. .
  13. PowellVolz
    It was 2014 I believe. We were in between two systems. About a week before we had a snow/sleet/RZ system that dumped 3-6 inches across the valley before changing to sleet. The inverted trough happened on a Wednesday afternoon and the NWS didn’t start talking about it till the night before. I ended up with 4-5”. A week later we had another overrunning event that was snow to ice to rain. School was out for two weeks. .
  14. PowellVolz
    Just thinking out loud here but with marginal temps the valley needs a possible inverted trough to stay over the mountains. If it lines up in the valley wouldn’t downsloping become a problem? .
  15. PowellVolz
    18z NAM out to 57 looks on track. .
  16. PowellVolz
    Not that it really matters storm to storm but the last system that did well in SE Tennessee, only the NAM for several days had snow into Knoxville and thats what happened. Also the Euro didn’t have the precip field far enough NW a few weeks back for the system that effected SC/NC. .
  17. PowellVolz
    Something we have seen many times is the NAM will lead the way with an aggressive move. What happens next with the globals will give us a good idea which way we are headed. .
  18. PowellVolz
    Beautiful .
  19. PowellVolz
    A little downsloping? .
  20. PowellVolz
    I’ll take my chances with everything south of us and I wouldn’t feel good about it if I was in the sweet spot right now. .
  21. PowellVolz
    Web cam from Ober shows some pretty good snow falling right now. .
  22. PowellVolz
    Just having a storm within 2 area codes is a win in my book. .
  23. PowellVolz
    Will be interesting to see how far north it makes it. To me MRX didn’t indicate any severe in the Knoxville area based on no SBCAPE and warm mid levels. They have a high of mid 50ish in Knoxville. You also gotta think anyone just south of the WF would have the best chance of maximizing shear with a boundary close by. .
  24. PowellVolz
    That’s a big step forward that the GFS brought that storm back and the Euro shows signs of it. Walk this in to d5 and anything is possible .
  25. PowellVolz
    Mountains yet again are taking a beating this morning. The lack of a sold soil will eventually be a real issue. .
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