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Everything posted by PowellVolz
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NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
PowellVolz replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
3k NAM is really close to the GFS. One says snow, one says rain. . -
NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
PowellVolz replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The GFS is showing rain at this point but this looks like snow. Also it looks like the winds are N/NE down to the surface. Am I reading this right? 0c is down to 950. Isn’t that low enough? . -
NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
PowellVolz replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Knoxville was 25ish that morning and it didn’t stick to the main roads. Bridges and off/on ramps became pretty bad but that was with only around an inch of snow. That being said, it’s never crossed my mind even at 2-3” that this snow would stick to the roads. Maybe the shaded areas. . -
NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
PowellVolz replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Actually what I missed was not looking to see where we went -0c and it looks to be no higher/lower than 850mb. You’re right, definitely wet snow. . -
NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
PowellVolz replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Maybe I’m reading this wrong but everything looks +0c. What am I missing? . -
NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
PowellVolz replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
MRX...... [emoji849] the NAM and Euro are together on this, they actually get better overnight and our boys lower the snow amount across most of the CWA? I feel like I read this every time there’s a chance for snow. . -
NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
PowellVolz replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
And I’d like to know what they have seen to change their mind, especially how the euro jumped in. . -
NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
PowellVolz replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
And just like that, MRX updates their map just now to pretty much remove all snow in Knoxville. . -
NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21
PowellVolz replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
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February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not trying to beat this into the ground but let’s not forget the Precip shield has been further NW the last several systems than what was shown. . -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I’m just about 100% positive that’s the inverted trough snow we got. I remembered it was on a Wednesday and was pretty sure it was in 14’ . -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Absolutely. What I was thinking is if the boundary was in the valley, the SE flow over the mountains might down slop before it was lifted back up. I very well could be overthinking this and cramming to much into a small space. . -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
It was 2014 I believe. We were in between two systems. About a week before we had a snow/sleet/RZ system that dumped 3-6 inches across the valley before changing to sleet. The inverted trough happened on a Wednesday afternoon and the NWS didn’t start talking about it till the night before. I ended up with 4-5”. A week later we had another overrunning event that was snow to ice to rain. School was out for two weeks. . -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just thinking out loud here but with marginal temps the valley needs a possible inverted trough to stay over the mountains. If it lines up in the valley wouldn’t downsloping become a problem? . -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
18z NAM out to 57 looks on track. . -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not that it really matters storm to storm but the last system that did well in SE Tennessee, only the NAM for several days had snow into Knoxville and thats what happened. Also the Euro didn’t have the precip field far enough NW a few weeks back for the system that effected SC/NC. . -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Something we have seen many times is the NAM will lead the way with an aggressive move. What happens next with the globals will give us a good idea which way we are headed. . -
Beautiful .
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A little downsloping? .
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February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I’ll take my chances with everything south of us and I wouldn’t feel good about it if I was in the sweet spot right now. . -
Web cam from Ober shows some pretty good snow falling right now. .
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February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just having a storm within 2 area codes is a win in my book. . -
Will be interesting to see how far north it makes it. To me MRX didn’t indicate any severe in the Knoxville area based on no SBCAPE and warm mid levels. They have a high of mid 50ish in Knoxville. You also gotta think anyone just south of the WF would have the best chance of maximizing shear with a boundary close by. .
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February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
That’s a big step forward that the GFS brought that storm back and the Euro shows signs of it. Walk this in to d5 and anything is possible . -
Mountains yet again are taking a beating this morning. The lack of a sold soil will eventually be a real issue. .
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