janetjanet998

April's #tornado count in the U.S. may have been the lowest in almost 30 years, according to preliminary data.

I recall posting something last year about how the new “normal” May rainfall for ORD went way up because of the last few years insanity Because we are using 1990’s 2000’s and 2010’s data now 3.68 to 4.45 according to this https://www.facebook.com/87625716759/photos/a.10150114911481760/10158220204461760/?type=3

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 929 PM CDT WED APR 28 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL SEBASTIAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 1015 PM CDT. * AT 929 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF EXCELSIOR, MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

Both TOR warnings no more

Tarrant 8:26

Decent training south of I-80 in IL 1-2 inches down already on the tracks

looks like it has made a bit of a left turn..also loosing the bigger hail

you can see "inflow boundaries" being sucked into that supercell from the SE on KFDR on COD radar

TOR probs lowered

got to watch AL into Western GA this afternoon winds veer but LLJ also turns more WSW in sync NAMNest forms a 1002 mb meso low that backs surface winds slightly looks like it may clear out by 1pm fir some afternoon heating

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2021 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ..SYNOPSIS IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, A PROGRESSIVE AND LARGELY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM CA AND NORTHWESTERN MC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN PERTURBATION -- AND UPPER-AIR INFLUENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL -- WILL BE A TROUGH INITIALLY OVER EASTERN OK AND CENTRAL/EAST TX. THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD ELONGATE AND ASSUME MORE-PRONOUNCED POSITIVE TILT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY 00Z, IT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD TO EASTERN KY, THE TN VALLEY REGION, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS, THEN BY 12Z, EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM NJ OVER THE CAROLINAS TO GA. AT THE SURFACE, THE 11Z ANALYSIS REVEALED A COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE SOUTH, WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND MULTIPLE PRESSURE MINIMA OVER AR/MS/LA, AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AR, NORTHWESTERN LA, AND THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. TO ITS EAST, CONVECTIVE/ OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE DRAWN THROUGH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN AL TO SOUTHERN LA, AND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL LA. A WARM/MARINE FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM THE AL LOW SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO WEST-CENTRAL FL. BY 00Z, THE LOW-PRESSURE AREA MOVE TO THE AREA BETWEEN HSV-TYS, WITH SOME MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC POSITION, RELATED TO THE MASS/PRESSURE-PERTURBATION EFFECTS OF MCS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE WARM THE COLD FRONT THEN SHOULD EXTEND FROM EASTERN AL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LA AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE MARINE/ WARM FRONT WILL BE DELAYED/MODULATED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BY OUTFLOW FROM AN ONGOING MCS, BUT THEN RETREAT SOMEWHAT DIFFUSELY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A NEW SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN WV/SOUTHWESTERN VA AREA, THEN DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AROUND 06-09Z. BY 12Z, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS AND ADJOINING SOUNDS, SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHWESTERN FL. ..SOUTHEAST AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES AS IT MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN AL, SOUTHERN GA, AND PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. SEE TORNADO WATCH 106 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM UPDATES. THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE INITIAL COMPLEX MAY OUTPACE WARM/MARINE-FRONTAL INCURSION INTO SOUTHERN GA, BUT ALSO SHOULD ENCOUNTER A BOUNDARY LAYER EXPERIENCING DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION BENEATH BROKEN CLOUD COVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1200 J/KG MLCAPE MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GA, DESPITE THE GREATER MOISTURE LAGGING TO THE WEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TRAILING OUTFLOW (AND OUTFLOW-REINFORCED MARINE FRONT). AS SUCH, GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS, THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST TO THE GA COAST. A SECOND EPISODE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE -- IS POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY INTO EVENING BEHIND THE MCS, ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TRAILING BOUNDARY. THIS MAY INCLUDE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF PRE-COLD-FRONTAL UVV AND ISALLOBARIC PERTURBATION NOW ARCHING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS, AND ORIGINATING LAST EVENING OVER OK. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN -- BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ATOP AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW/ILL-DEFINED WESTERN PART OF THE COLD POOL THAT MAY BE PENETRABLE BY STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS FROM SUCCEEDING CONVECTION. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, A DEEPLY BUOYANT PROFILE IS LIKELY, GIVEN A TROPOPAUSE AROUND 200 MB, AND SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F. THIS WILL SUPPORT PEAK MLCAPE IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE, AMIDST 50-60-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THOUGH MID/UPPER WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER/SPEED SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE INITIAL MCS, SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS -- VEERED RELATIVE TO BEFORE MCS PASSAGE -- ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WOULD REDUCE HODOGRAPH SIZE SOMEWHAT, THOUGH STILL WITH SOME CURVATURE DUE TO REMAINING SLIGHT VEERING WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH INTENSE SPEED SHEAR. AS SUCH, A MIX OF QUASI-LINEAR/MULTICELLULAR AND SUPERCELL MODES IS POSSIBLE, OFFERING ALL SEVERE THREATS. A BAND OF STRONG, PERHAPS SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS MOIST, RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED GULF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FL REGION. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN, GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY, NEARLY FRONT-PARALLEL WARM- SECTOR FLOW PROGGED BY THAT TIME, LIMITING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SHEAR.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 905 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2021 GAC037-061-099-241345- /O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210424T1345Z/ CLAY GA-CALHOUN GA-EARLY GA- 905 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND NORTHERN EARLY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... AT 905 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BLAKELY, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

Two slightly "underachieving" High Risk days Moderate for wind day a couple decent Enhanced days other then that not much flatlined

SE TX BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 545 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT. * AT 545 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CUT AND SHOOT, OR NEAR CONROE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SOUTHERN PORTION OF GULF COAST STATES PRIMARY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN TO EXTEND THE ENH RISK AREA FARTHER EAST ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER TX THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH LIKELIHOOD OF EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN END NEAR ADVANCING WARM FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AN INTENSE 60 + KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 98 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2021 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA, WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

Here is the FILTERED SPC storm report page how high will it go by 12z (keep in mind late reports will be coming in tomorrow too)

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 858 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 MSC017-095-100230- /O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-210410T0230Z/ Chickasaw MS-Monroe MS- 858 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL CHICKASAW AND MONROE COUNTIES... At 858 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Prairie, or near Aberdeen, moving east at 50 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated.

New day 1 ACUS01 KWNS 091252 SWODY1 SPC AC 091251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT FRI APR 09 2021 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ..SUMMARY MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS, ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGIONS, TO PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THIS INCLUDES A THREAT FOR A SWATH OF SEVERE WIND FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE, DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, AS ONE CYCLONE EJECTS OUT OF A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH CAUSING THE SPLIT, AND ANOTHER TAKES ITS PLACE. THE LEADING CYCLONE -- INITIALLY CENTERED NEAR LSE -- IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY TO AN OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND HEAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM EASTERN MT SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CO. THIS FEATURE WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING, BEFORE PIVOTING EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A CLOSED CYCLONE, ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. BY 12Z, THE ASSOCIATED 500-MB LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE KS/MO LINE SOUTH OF MKC. FARTHER SOUTH, A BROAD AREA OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, WITH EMBEDDED, CLOSELY SPACED PERTURBATIONS NOW EVIDENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS OK AND SOUTH TX TODAY. TONIGHT, THEY SHOULD REACH PARTS OF TN/MS/LA, LIKELY BLENDING INTO CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORTICITY FIELDS. THE BROAD LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED, 250-MB SUBTROPICAL JET, ALSO EXHIBITING PRONOUNCED DIFLUENCE, ALSO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTH TX AND LA TODAY AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE DELTA REGION. AT THE SURFACE, 11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OCCLUDED, ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WI TO NORTHERN IA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM THE NORTHERN PART ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI, WITH WEAKENING/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WESTERN OH, EASTERN PORTIONS OF TN/KY, AND NORTHERN AL. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS LAKE ERIE, EASTERN WV, AND SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN VA NEAR THE NC LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN/ CENTRAL VA TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN IA, NORTHWESTERN MO, CENTRAL/WESTERN KS, AND SOUTHEASTERN CO. A MARINE/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER NORTHWEST TX ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX, CENTRAL LA, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN /EASTERN OK, AR, AND CENTRAL MS/AL THROUGH THE DAY. THE NORTHERN LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE IN FORM BUT CONTINUE TO FILL, AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER ON. MEANWHILE, A SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY NEAR THE DRYLINE INTERSECTION, PERHAPS EVOLVING OUT OF THE INITIAL/PREFRONTAL LOW OVER NORTHWEST TX. THE RESULTING LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AS THE NEXT MID/UPPER CYCLONE APPROACHES, AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR STL BY 12Z TOMORROW. BY THAT TIME, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR BTR, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MID/UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS TO DEEP SOUTH TX. ..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH/DELTA REGIONS EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BETWEEN EASTERN OK, NORTH TX AND MISSISSIPPI, RESULTING IN LARGE (LOCALLY VERY LARGE) HAIL, SEVERE GUSTS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES. THIS IS A COMPLEX SCENARIO WITH AN ASSORTMENT OF MESOSCALE POSSIBILITIES MORE DIVERSE THAN THE NUMBER OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AVAILABLE. PROGS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENTLY DEPICT EARLY INITIATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION, WHETHER NEAR THE FRONT IN OK (A VERY PLAUSIBLE CONSENSUS THEME), ON THE DRYLINE (MORE ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL DUE TO STRONG CAPPING), AND IN THE WARM SECTOR (HIGHLY VARIABLE). MULTIPLE EPISODES OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER ANY GIVEN SPOT THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS OUTLOOK REPRESENTS BOTH: 1. THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERLAPPING AREAS OF SEVERE AT DIFFERENT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING AS DIFFERENT AREAS OF CONVECTION EVOLVE, BUT ALSO: 2. A SCENARIO THAT MOST PROGS REASONABLY DO CONVERGE UPON DESPITE EARLY DIFFERENCES: A DOMINANT QLCS/MCS EVOLVING OUT OF CONVECTION INITIATING IN OK AND/OR NORTHEAST TX, THEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE ARKLATEX TO DELTA REGIONS, ORGANIZING A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL, AND PRODUCING A SWATH OF SEVERE WIND. WHETHER OR NOT THIS EVENT WILL QUALIFY AS A DERECHO IS A SEMANTIC EXERCISE, AND LIKELY REGULATED BY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE/BOUNDARY PROCESSES YET TO BECOME APPARENT. REGARDLESS, HURRICANE-FORCE CONVECTIVE GUSTS ARE A THREAT WITH ANY SUCH COMPLEX, IN THE ENHANCED AND MODERATE AREAS. ALSO, BECAUSE BOTH THE PROBABLE QLCS AND ANY PRECEDING SUPERCELL(S) WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE- STRONG BUOYANCY, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND THE EASTERN RIM OF AN EML, ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR, TORNADOES ALSO ARE EXPECTED. PEAK PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR COMMONLY SHOULD BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, AMIDST 40-55-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES. AS ONE OR MORE MCSS PLOW COLD POOLS INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT, THEY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN MS/AL TONIGHT, CONTINUING A WIND-DAMAGE AND SPORADIC TORNADO THREAT. ..CENTRAL GULF COAST TO AL/GA THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A THREAT FOR SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. A CONDITIONAL, LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT ALSO MAY DEVELOP. FOR NEAR-TERM COVERAGE, PLEASE SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 338. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LESS THAN IN THE MORE EML-INFLUENCED AIR MASS OF THE PLAINS/DELTA AREA. STILL, RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INLAND, COMBINED WITH AREAS OF DIURNAL HEATING (TEMPERED IN PACE BY MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION), WILL WEAKEN MLCINH AND YIELD FAVORABLE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. MEANWHILE, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE MARINE FRONTAL ZONE, THOUGH WEAK ABSOLUTE SPEEDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE SOMEWHAT. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON INDICATE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE, WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES. EFFECTIVE SRH WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 200-250 J/KG ON THE FRONT TO AROUND 100-1-50 J/KG COASTWARD IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH UPPER SUPPORT MEAGER IN THIS AREA, BUT ALSO MODEST MLCINH, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN.

Ok time for a Rant that has been going on for over 15 years at this office which I have ranted about before A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. so what does this mean 1) a severe Thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado or 2) a confirmed tornado since it says a storm producing a tornado If it is number one why not say "a severe Thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado" like every other office Rant over ----------------------- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1031 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 1115 PM CDT. * AT 1030 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SENATOBIA, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 900 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 ARC001-095-280230- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210328T0230Z/ MONROE AR-ARKANSAS AR- 900 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS COUNTIES... AT 900 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF DE WITT, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITE RIVER NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 64 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 900 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 900 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 90 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A BROADER QLCS OVERNIGHT. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 851 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 ARC001-095-280230- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210328T0230Z/ MONROE AR-ARKANSAS AR- 851 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS COUNTIES... AT 851 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DE WITT, OR 13 MILES WEST OF WHITE RIVER NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

cell over central TN now warned BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 837 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL DECATUR COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * AT 837 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DARDEN, OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF NATCHEZ TRACE STATE FOREST, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

no..01z keeps it enhanced but old days this would have been a moderate most likely (before enhanced was a thing)