janetjanet998

MLCAPE a little better.....but early convection really prevented instability from reaching its potential

HIGH risk still DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA... ..SUMMARY THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES CONTINUES TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE GREATEST RISK IS OVER ALABAMA. ..01Z UPDATE LLJ IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGRESSING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ELONGATED MCS THAT IS GROWING UPSCALE FROM EASTERN MS INTO SOUTHEASTERN LA. WHILE THIS MCS IS GRADUALLY MATURING, NUMEROUS EMBEDDED MESOS ARE NOTED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE DISCRETE STORMS THAT CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE MCS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW SUPERCELLS. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS FAVOR TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE PRIMARY CHANGES AT 01Z ARE TO LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THE WAKE OF THE EVOLVING MCS. ..DARROW.. 03/18/2021

one lone tornado warning at this time

8-10 active TOR warnings but nothing insane right now or TDS

21 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 ALC021-172300- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210317T2300Z/ CHILTON AL- 521 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR EASTERN CHILTON COUNTY... AT 521 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER POOLES CROSSROADS, OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLANTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

LLJ will be ramping up from here on out Instability perhaps not as much as forecast but still 1000-1800 CAPE (vs 1500-2200) winds backing over N MS now too tons of discrete storms from MS into AL in two east-west lines if storms can remain that way when LLJ ramps up..look out

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 516 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BLOUNT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT. * AT 515 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER KIMBERLY, OR 7 MILES NORTH OF GARDENDALE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 516 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 ALC021-172300- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-210317T2300Z/ CHILTON AL- 516 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR EASTERN CHILTON COUNTY... AT 516 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER POOLES CROSSROADS, OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLANTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 455 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 ALC073-172230- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-210317T2230Z/ JEFFERSON AL- 455 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY... AT 454 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BROOKSIDE, OR NEAR GARDENDALE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0437 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... CORRECTED TO CHANGE I-80 TO HIGHWAY-80 ..SUMMARY A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW LONG-TRACK, POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES. THE INITIAL ROUND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE SWATH SHOULD EMANATE FROM FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ..DISCUSSION A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE FIRST CHANGE IS TO MOVE THE HIGH RISK AREA SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE 45 PERCENT CONTOUR HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD, TO ENCOMPASS THE FIRST PHASE OF THE TORNADO OUTBREAK ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE NEWEST TORNADO OUTBREAK MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR EAST-NORTHEAST FROM NEAR JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY-80 CORRIDOR INTO THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA. THE SECOND IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK WESTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE THIRD CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE ENHANCED RISK FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND IT APPEARS, THAT THE DISTRIBUTION OF REPORTS WILL BE OVER A BROADER AREA AND MORE ISOLATED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

SE AR DESHA AR- 439 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL DESHA COUNTY... AT 438 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MCGEHEE, OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF DERMOTT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 417 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... * UNTIL 500 PM CDT. * AT 416 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF GILBERTOWN, OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF BUTLER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

storms hanging up the front over AL..winds remain backed and it will be that way for a while...unstable air just to the south and will help sustain storms as they hit the front any storm hitting that front will really spin up like they have been

a worst case would be a NE tornado moving just south of the interstate because it would tear up dense urban areas for many miles due to the shape of the urban layout the big ones seem to go just north of that area north of downtown

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 226 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 ALC073-127-172015- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210317T2015Z/ WALKER AL-JEFFERSON AL- 226 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALKER AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES... AT 226 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST JEFFERSON, OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF DORA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

Oh boy BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 220 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT. * AT 220 PM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KNOXVILLE, OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF EUTAW, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

CELL NW of birmingham now warned.. now 6 warned cells in that line

don't forget this area MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 171818Z - 171915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ARCING LINE OF SUPERCELLS/LINE SEGMENTS IS LIKELY FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH HAS ALLOWED SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE 18Z KLZK RAOB HAD A STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER, BUT MODIFYING THIS SOUNDING FOR LOW 70S TEMPERATURES AND LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA YIELDS AROUND 500 TO 750 J/KG MLCAPE AND A NEARLY UNCAPPED PROFILE. EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUGGESTS THIS REMAINING INHIBITION HAS LIKELY ERODED AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVERHEAD. THEREFORE, SEVERAL LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE HOUR. OVERALL, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 150 TO 200 M2/S2 PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW MAY LEAD TO A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO/LANDSPOUT THREAT. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

Lots of storms over SE MS now with non-warned weaker couplets the key word is LOTS...as in maybe too many for this to get really out of hand if storms have spacing issues time will tell

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1207 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 100 PM CDT. * AT 1207 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MILL CREEK, OR 13 MILES WEST OF WAYNESBORO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... CRANDALL AROUND 1255 PM CDT.

CC drop

Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes High (90%)

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2021 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA CENTRAL TO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SUMMARY...NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES.

yep..already getting that look and are discrete may really start to spin when they hit that warm front right around the time they are over a major Metro area too