janetjanet998

LOT has been dealing wth LES somewhere in their CWA for over 36 hours,..impressive for that side of the lake edit: you can make out the mesolow on short wave IR over central LM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1004 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2021 UPDATE 955 PM CST TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN HIGHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES INTO PORTER COUNTY, IN THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT, AS WELL AS EXTENDING CLOUDS OVER SOME PARTS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LONGER AND BUMPING UP FORECAST LOWS THERE. WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW (FOR THIS EVENT) IS NEARING THE END, IT HAS FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HAD A CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS INTO PORTER COUNTY. THIS HAS BEEN WELL ESTABLISHED ON LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A PRESUMED MESO-LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE PER ANALYZED WIND STREAMLINES ON HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE NOT THROUGH THE ROOF (FOR INSTANCE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF ONLY 6,000 FT), BUT BECAUSE OF THE VERY COLD LOW-LEVELS, THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS OVERLAPPED BY THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD DEPTHS. WE SUSPECT SOME PARTS OF PORTER COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED AROUND TO A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR AND WEBCAM IMAGERY, AND COULD FINISH WITH SOME NIGHTTIME TOTALS OF 3-4 IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF NORTHERN PORTER. EVEN IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN, FEEL THE NATURE OF THIS AFTER THE PROLONGED EVENT IS BEST HANDLED WITH G-NOWS, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, AND OTHER MESSAGING.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 931 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021 UPDATE 926 AM CST WHILE OUR MAIN SYSTEM SNOW HAS ENDED, LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES BOTH ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING. AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO WAUKEGAN HAVE BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER ONE MILE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ONSHORE BOTH IN NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS MORNING, BUT AS THE DAY CONTINUES THE FOCUS SHOULD REALLY BE IN NORTHWEST IN. RADAR DEPICTIONS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH MOST OF THE TODAY. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE AT IN SPOTS. KMD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 910 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021 UPDATE (ISSUED 910 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021) MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE SNOWFALL WITH LAKE BAND PERSISTING. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO MOVE IT OFFSHORE PRETTY QUICK HERE THIS MORNING BUT RADAR TRENDS ARE SUPPORTING MORE PERSISTENCE THAN PROGRESSION AT THIS POINT. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS THE IMPRESSIVE CONVERGENCE AND THERMODYNAMICS AT PLAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND. WILL LEAVE END TIMES TO HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW AND PONDER ANY SORT OF EXTENSION BASED ON TRENDS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. COLLAR

LES still decent and over SE WI with lake county IL getting light snow Waukegan now at 3/4 mile Vis Racine had SN+ at 14z and both Racine and MKE have 1/2 mile vis with SN at 15z HRRR seems slightly too far east with the band...RAP better and brings 1-3 more for eastern Cook county later PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 850 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0849 AM SNOW 1 WNW WIND POINT 42.79N 87.79W 02/16/2021 M14.8 INCH RACINE WI PUBLIC

band now east of Midway you can tell on the I-55 west of Central Ave IDOT cam just NW of them Vis is up and nothing in obs this hour about snow depth and vis up to 1/2mile meanwhile: 0930 PM HEAVY SNOW EVANSTON 42.04N 87.69W 02/15/2021 M12.0 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER GETTING UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. 22 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

can't ever quite make it to ORD though with the pushes 0 for 3 now the storm total difference between ORD and MDW will be LOL X 10 due to the above plus * snow measurements early on at ORD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 928 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0926 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT 41.74N 87.78W 02/15/2021 M11.9 INCH COOK IL CO-OP OBSERVER 3 INCHES FROM 7:45 PM TO 8:55 PM; SD 23 INCHES.

radar showing the insane rates may be slipping east a tad of them now... between them and the loop..and shifting west across northern Cook

Midway saying 30 inch depth or bust

triple team?? 1)system snow 2)old main band almost north-south 3)smaller bands moving in from the east? no wonder Aleking getting 3+ inch per hour rates

still cranking KMDW 160053Z 35014G20KT 1/4SM R31C/3000V5000FT +SN BLSN VV006 M11/M14 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP208 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 2/19 P0001 T11111144 $

there still appears to be a main band of LES coming ashore Lake./Cook but south east of that several multi-bands moving into central cook with heavier system snow overlap and even yellow pixels on COD (32 dBZ) radar which is very impressive for dry fluffy snow

0600 PM SNOW 3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT 41.75N 87.79W 02/15/2021 M6.0 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS EVENT TOTAL AS OF 6 PM CST.

nice long fetch on MKE radar coming ashore Lake IL/Cook border and extending SSW through central Cook county enhanced snows also coming up I-55 from central IL

KMDW 152353Z 35016KT 1/4SM R31C/2800V4000FT +SN BLSN VV005 M11/M14 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP204 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 2/17 4/017 P0001 60002 T11111139 11078 21128 58034 $

huge west push of the lake bands..(main band and weaker band to the south)really booking it west...in fact may "overshoot" where it was expected to stall edit: same thing with the bands off of the WI shore per MKE radar

KMDW 152253Z 02016G23KT 1/4SM R31C/1400V2600FT +SN BLSN VV008 M08/M12 A3009 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP211 PRESENT WX DRSN SNINCR 1/16 P0001 T10831117 $

Midway is that band for now before it snakes back north KMDW 152223Z 03011G21KT 1/4SM R31C/1600V3500FT +SN

looks like a western (north) shift starting in the LES band off shore again so it may snake back north again here soon

Wrigleville cam back in the band https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyville/?cam=wrigleyville

This will only grow with todays system and Thursday..keep in mind even if it warms up for a brief time a lot of the melting and any rainfall will just get absorbed into the snowpack at first priming for a big release getting very worried about IL river flooding here and upstream with the upper basin and tributaries with deep snowpack even the LES isn't helping, eastern cook county used to drain into the lake, now every drop flows this way

models showing a decent system next weekend

ORD just NW of band which had drifted a couple miles south recently 1200 PM SNOW OHARE AIRPORT 41.98N 87.90W 02/15/2021 M1.6 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS SNOW TOTAL AS OF 12 PM. 1200 PM SNOW 3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT 41.75N 87.79W 02/15/2021 M2.4 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS SNOW TOTAL AS OF 12 PM.

"SMACK DAB BETWEEN O'HARE AND MIDWAY" = does not exist in official climate records REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1221 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021 UPDATE...1215 PM CST TWO DOMINANT BANDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE COOK COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY IL. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVERGENCE WITH A NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE CHICAGO CRIB AND NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND, AND A SEPARATE AREA OF WEAKER CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHICAGO AND INTO LAKE COUNTY IL. REPORTS FROM WILMETTE AND EVANSTON WERE 4" IN 2 HOURS FROM THIS SNOW. RAP FORECAST OF CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS THIS BAND WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL COOK COUNTY, POSSIBLY SMACK DAB BETWEEN O'HARE AND MIDWAY (LIKELY TO INCLUDE MIDWAY AIRPORT) AND WILL LIKELY BECOME THE AREA OF FOCUS OF THE LAKE BAND THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SYNOPTIC SNOW IS CRUISING ON IN, AND EXPECT A FASTER START TO SNOW TODAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MESSY AFTERNOON COMMUTE AREA WIDE. KMD