janetjanet998

ILX finally on the ball INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GALESBURG, TOULON, PEORIA, LACON, EUREKA, CANTON, PEKIN, RUSHVILLE, HAVANA, AND BEARDSTOWN 1201 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY... ..WIND CHILL WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY * WHAT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

part of it may be shallow snow getting closer to the radar site but downtown in a snow hole western Cook county, west of the loop, has decent returns for some reason (moving SW so LES snow) must be some type of local convergence of the bands or something

1100 AM SNOW 2 E WILMETTE 42.07N 87.69W 02/15/2021 M4.7 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER SNOW TOTAL SINCE 7 AM. 2.6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST HOUR.

looks like the main band is now parking with a long fetch with ORD getting decent leftovers the band south of it is pretty decent too despite a shorter fetch and shore ice and maybe a weaker band now trying to form NW of the main band that may move into lakeshore Lake county IL in between lake enhanced system snow fun times

we have 2 inches or so down from last night ILX saying 3-5 total in updated statement 12z GFS and Nams dump 7-8 more this afternoon and tonight so that means 1-3 more according to ILX sigh

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1037 AM CST MON FEB 15 2021 UPDATE 1018 AM CST OUR DOMINANT LAKE BAND HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN COOK COUNTY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE BEST CONVERGENCE SIGNAL WHERE 2" PER HOUR RATES ARE OCCURRING. THIS WILL GIVE A BREAK TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THERE IS A BIT OF SHEAR AND WEAKER CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COOK COUNTY AND LAKE IN, THE THERMODYNAMICS STILL REMAIN STRONG TO SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS, SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED, HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD 1/4SM TO 1/2SM VISIBILITY IN SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INCLUDING ARKANSAS, MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA! THIS IS WHAT IS SPREADING OUR WAY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE SNOW FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK, THOUGH WE DID SPEED UP THE TIMING OF SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO GET BACK INTO THE SNOW DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE, EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL IL. STILL, ONE IT STARTS SNOWING ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS YET AGAIN WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY SNOW. THIS MAY BE THE TIME TO GET HOME BEFORE THE SNOW SPREADS BACK IN IF YOU CAN. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COOK COUNTY TONIGHT, AND THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY SNOW. KEEP IN MIND FOR RURAL AREAS THAT SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY, TONIGHT, AND INTO TUESDAY, AND WHILE WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE "IMPROVED", VALUES OF 0 TO MINUS 20, WITH THE LOWEST READINGS WEST OF THE CHICAGO, ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT, THUS CAUTION IS URGED IF OUTSIDE.

I noticed that too was going to leave work at 3 trying to beat it oh well

the one big band seems to have weakened some as a second weaker band seems to be forming more SE downtown now seems to be in between some models had this if there is more wind shear then progged could be weaker multi bands time will tell even so multbands will be just spread the wealth and enhance the system snow everywhere

I know that you are north of downtown but where? Is that band now north of you?

band about to push northwest of Downtown but the set up is so good that decent snow showers are still SE of the main band over the lake

0300 AM SNOW 3 N VALPARAISO 41.52N 87.07W 02/15/2021 M10.0 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER MOST SNOW FELL BETWEEN 12 AM AND 3 AM WITH NEARLY 3 INCH PER HOUR RATES AT TIMES.

6-8 on NAM with Lake enhancement for NE IL (more typical not like today)

Field cam a white out action picking up at Wrigleyville (northside) https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyville/?cam=wrigleyville

I recall a fluke tornado warning in SW Michigan many years ago with one edit: may have been lake effect rain/convection in the fall and not snow though

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum

So since the urban areas of Chicago already have 10 to 15+ inches on the ground I assume places to put new snow are dwindling unlike 1979 there has been little wind so far and roads and cars aren’t drifting shut .. those storms caused political trouble for the mayor because the city was at a standstill for days Of course snow removal is better these days but I imagine if they get dumped on the city with LES and decent winds in the 20’s it might get interesting I recall places like NYC (or Is it Boston)can’t dump snow into the ocean because of the garbage also collected and they bring in melters i assume snow can’t be dumped into the lake either

not surprising but the 18z NAM seems north at 84 hours

ILX 4-6 PIA 5-8 the tier SE and 6-10 the tier south east of that PIA went from 1-2 to 4-6

and it still has a funky meso low jut offshore throwing snow back into NE IL and SE WI at the end of the run at 18z Tuesday Cook county IL transformed into southern Erie county NY I never recall such a setup , usually any Delta T of 20+ with higher inversions will only last an hour or two behind a low and the band swings into IND

Looks like there is a pretty solid layer of Ice (with maybe even snow on it) from south central Cook county SE to Lake/Porter border area on the SW tip of the lake north of there is Ice just offshore but this looks more like ice flows with some gaps any thoughts on that being a factor ? do the models factor this in when spitting out the huge LES numbers inland?

Yes I know but surely yesterdays 3.2 added something to the snowpack EDit: Dekalb and and Genoa +2 net change for example

what is the official snow depth at ORD? Fridays end of the day climate report had 13 they had an obs yesterday showing 15 (and 1 inch that hour) and they got more after that This morning climate report for Saturday has them back down to 13????? the record I believe is 29 back in 1979 with luck with the LES parking over them they may have 22-24 inches going into midweek I assume the correct current number is higher then 13??

still calling for 2 inches at PIA

LOT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WATCH: A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COOK COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF 2 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON MONDAY. MOST NOTABLE, IS THE STRONG SIGNAL IN FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE BAND ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROMINENT SINGLE BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING, LIKELY INITIALLY IMPACTING PORTER IN. THERMODYAMICS OVER THE LAKE LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT VERY HEAVY SNOW RATES IN THIS DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW, WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOKING TO TOP OUT AROUND 6-7,000 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. WHILE THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT MAINLY PORTER COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING, SIGNS POINT AT IT SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER LAKE COUNTY IN LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING OVER PARTS OF COOK COUNTY ON MONDAY. CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THAT PARTS OF COOK COUNTY, INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CITY OF CHICAGO COULD BE IN THE LINE OF FIRE FROM THIS POTENTIAL BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THIS BAND OF SNOW, WE COULD SEE SOME AMOUNTS TOTAL UP WELL OVER 6" IN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS SEE IN EXCESS OF A FOOT. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREA, AN APPROACH WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND BETTER MOISTURE LOOK TO FAVOR EAST CENTRAL IL AND INTO IN FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE AREA (2 TO 5"). THIS IS THE GENERAL AREA IN WHICH WE ISSUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK PROBABLE FARTHER NORTH, FOR INLAND AREAS OF CHICAGO METRO. DRIER AIR POTENTIAL WILL RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO A DUSTING OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL IL. THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD, WITH NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS TO -25 REMAINING PROBABLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON, THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BKL/KJB

repeat? -------- Heavy Lake Effect Snow Event of January 21-22, 2014 Fast Facts Total snowfalls were: 7.2" at Midway Airport 3 SW 5.9" at Chicago-O'Hare - this brought the seasonal total to 44.8", tied for 3rd most snow ever in Chicago by 1/21 with 1977-1978. 2.0" at the NWS Forecast Office in Romeoville. N GRIFFITH 24.0 E 230 PM 01/21 41.52N 87.42W https://www.weather.gov/lot/2014jan22