janetjanet998

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 335 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ALC019-252100- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-210325T2100Z/ CHEROKEE AL- 335 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY... AT 335 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER FORNEY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 251929Z - 252130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY 21Z. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN TN EXTENDING EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN AL. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO CENTRAL KY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS, GRADUAL WARMING IS TAKING PLACE, WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE LOW 70S F. MUCAPE CURRENTLY REMAINS BELOW 1000 J/KG AS A RESULT OF DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F. STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY SHOULD AID MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF MS INTO MIDDLE TN, WITH AREAS OF HEATING HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AS WELL. SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN THE 21-03Z TIME FRAME, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE MID 60S F DEWPOINTS ARRIVE LATER TODAY. WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE, EFFECTIVE SRH MAY REACH 400-500 M2/S2. ..JEWELL/HART.. 03/25/2021 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 251933Z - 252130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE COMING HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE SHOWN 2-3 MB SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHEAST AR INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST AR CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW A HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS (NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) TO OVERSPREAD THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY REGIONS AND ALLOW MLCAPE TO INCREASE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW, AND SOUTHWESTERLY 60-70 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL HELP SUPPORT DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE STORM MODES. ALONG WITH A HAIL/WIND THREAT, BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ESRH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2 AND A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION WITHIN THIS REGION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE 22-00 UTC TIME FRAME. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE COMING HOURS TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN. ..MOORE/HART.. 03/25/2021

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 220 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ALC115-121-251945- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-210325T1945Z/ TALLADEGA AL-ST. CLAIR AL- 220 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL TALLADEGA AND NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES... AT 220 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RIVERSIDE, OR NEAR PELL CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 146 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL TALLADEGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT. * AT 145 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MOUNT LAUREL, OR NEAR CHELSEA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NO

hopefully it stays south of highway 119..more rural

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 133 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ALC073-117-251900- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210325T1900Z/ SHELBY AL-JEFFERSON AL- 133 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN SHELBY AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES... AT 133 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER OAK MOUNTAIN AMPHITHEATER, OR OVER PELHAM, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

MS BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 103 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 200 PM CDT. * AT 103 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PRENTISS, OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF PINOLA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Clearing out nicely TN into central KY

ACUS11 KWNS 251728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251728 ALZ000-251930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 50... VALID 251728Z - 251930Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 50 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER NORTHERN HALE COUNTY MAY PERSIST WITH TORNADO THREAT EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL, NOW TORNADIC AND LIKELY PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO, CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN HALE COUNTY, AND HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS CELL IS UNSTABLE AND WARMING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NORTHEAST OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA. LATEST VWP OUT OF BMX SHOWS 0-1 SRH OF 329 M2/S2 GIVEN A MOTION OF 245/38 KT, WHICH SUPPORTS A STRONG TORNADO. GIVEN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EAST OF THE CELL, THE TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS SEVERAL COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. ..JEWELL.. 03/25/2021

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1227 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ALC007-125-251815- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-210325T1815Z/ TUSCALOOSA AL-BIBB AL- 1227 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA AND CENTRAL BIBB COUNTIES... AT 1227 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LOW GAP, OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUSCALOOSA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ALC007-125-251815- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-210325T1815Z/ TUSCALOOSA AL-BIBB AL- 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA AND CENTRAL BIBB COUNTIES... AT 1221 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNDVILLE, OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 49 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 950 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2021 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE INTENSE CLUSTERS SHOULD EMANATE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

Cell TOR warned now

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 23 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 231744Z - 231945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THOUGH A TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE SHOWN PARTIAL CLEARING WITHIN A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STACKED SURFACE/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS CLEARING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE. DESPITE A MARGINAL INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW/MID 50S), RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO. DEEPENING CUMULUS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SUPPORT THIS IDEA AND INDICATE BUOYANCY IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST TRANSIENT UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE TO SOME DEGREE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. RECENT ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL MARGINAL, BUT SUFFICIENT, EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR ORTHOGONAL TO THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SUPPORT DISCRETE, ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEP VIA DIURNAL HEATING, A WIND AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE. GIVEN SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR (PER REGIONAL VWPS), A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FURTHER EAST INTO IL. HOWEVER, THIS LOCATION MAY SEE THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET AUGMENTS EFFECTIVE SRH. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MOORE/HART.. 03/23/2021

temps already 60ish in MO with dewpoints 50-53 nice clearing out update ..MO/IA/IL LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN KS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST IA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA AND WESTERN IL. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING/HEATING OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN MO, WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F WILL COMBINE WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO. 12Z CAM GUIDANCE VARIES ON CORRIDOR OF MAX POTENTIAL, AND LOW CAPE VALUES LIMIT THE CONFIDENCE OF A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS, AN UPGRADE TO SLGT IS POSSIBLE AT 20Z IF A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF CONCERN DEVELOPS.

MO/IA/IL AN ARC OF CONVECTION, INCLUDING WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY IN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT, JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE STACKED LOW, AND ON THE EASTERN RIM OF ITS COLD-CORE REGION ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY -- INITIALLY FROM WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND PERHAPS INTO WESTERN IL -- SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD IN STEP WITH THE PREVAILING CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD. AT LEAST MARGINAL TORNADO AND WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL EXISTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DECREASING THIS EVENING OVER IA AND NORTHWESTERN IL. LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND SRH WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE NOTCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THAT WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, EAST-NORTHEAST OF AND IN STEP WITH THE LOW. MIDLEVEL DCVA/COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION, EVEN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH WARMER. THE MAIN CONCERN/ UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION AVAILABLE TO THE CONVECTIVE ARC, AND IN TURN, THE MAGNITUDE AND WIDTH OF BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LONGEVITY. BASELINE MLCAPE VALUES OF 300-700 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW PLUME IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE ARC -- HIGHER WITH ANY SUSTAINED SLOTS OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE INFLOW REGION. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND IF THEY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, A SMALL CORRIDOR OF GREATER UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES COULD BE ADDED WITHIN THE EXPANDED "MARGINAL" AREA IN A LATER UPDATE.

..MIDDLE MS VALLEY SURFACE HEATING WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL AND EASTERN IA. HOWEVER, STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT COULD AID IN A FEW ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED CELLS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN LIMITED HEATING. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW/CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE PROBABILITIES.

2 TOR warned now LLJ working its magic as usual starting this time at night in the SE

I think that some people think it "busted" because those Tornadoes happened rather early and were not part of a second "main event" of long tracked tornadoes moving from MS into AL in the evening that never materialized just for the record as I have said before over the years, I don't think there is sucha thing as a "bust" since its a RISK factor...but then again I'm old fashioned A high probability, or risk, of something happing doesn't mean it will happen every time

Data overload I liked the old days better (ie 1990s) .broad brush of general , slight. moderate. or high not trying to narrow it down into small corridors using silly percentages

There are no active Tornado Or Severe thunderstorm warnings at this time _0230z

you can see the front on the JAN radar just west of jackson but Jackson only 68/64 The MCS ate away most of the instability that the front was supposed to use for the original "2am' event The cells over central AL are running into stable air and the storms over SW AL seem to be in a line now which is mostly outflow dominated

HRRR tries to redevelop stuff just behind the current line in a couple of hours..not sure how much juice will be left for true surface based stuff

MCS pushing things along 18z NAM NEST still had the line back in central MS at 02z and 18z HRR to