janetjanet998

small discrete storms developing over SW TN and eastern AR WF slowly moving north some clearing too ahead of them LLJ 30knots on Mempis VAD 18z NAM increases to 40 kts by 00z and 50 knots at 03z

back west] MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX...NORTHERN LA...AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 271916Z - 272045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S AT 19Z. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50+ KT WILL EASILY FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN A LACK OF OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHEN ROBUST STORMS WILL FORM. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, STORMS WILL PROBABLY INITIATE BY 20-21Z AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAP CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE. LARGE TO VERY LARGE (2+ INCH) HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS INITIALLY, AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG AT THE MOMENT. BUT, A LOW-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS WILL INCREASE. A STRONG TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN 150-200 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH BY MID-EVENING IF STORMS CAN REMAIN GENERALLY DISCRETE. AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO EVENTUALLY UNFOLD LATER THIS EVENING AS UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS. BASED ON TOWERING CUMULUS BECOMING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS AR, A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED. ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2021 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT

18Z HRRR

18Z HRRR even more unstable with CAPE >3300 near Memphis by 22z hopefully the storms over TN near the WF stay elevated

FYI

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 59 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 145 PM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN ALABAMA EXTREME EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUTHERN PARTS OF WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS. AS STORMS CLUSTER MORE INTO THE EVENING, THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS.

35ish warnings since 12z out of the old TN system now moving into NC (meso out) 21 filtered severe hail reports including one 2 inch report no watch

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0278 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR...MUCH OF TN...NORTHERN MS/AL...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 271655Z - 271930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT. A FEW TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONT DRAPED GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT OWING TO CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. MODESTLY STEEPENED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF EASTERN AR INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MN/AL. CONTINUED MODEST DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS NEBULOUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST OF THIS REGION. STILL, THE FRONT MAY LIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS TN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT 25-35 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A BROAD SWATH OF 50-60 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MID LEVELS WILL FOSTER AROUND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND SOME ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL OF 2+ INCHES IN DIAMETER APPEARS POSSIBLE WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP (LIKELY EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS). AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT WHILE REMAINING SURFACE BASED. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG AT THE MOMENT, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, AROUND 150-200 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION, AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT, WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE BACKED TO A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY, A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND TN VALLEY... ..SUMMARY SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL, SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS, AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. ..MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO MIDDLE/EASTERN TN, PERSISTS AS OF LATE MORNING. THE CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID-UPPER SPEED MAX MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH. FARTHER WEST, ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE RAIN-REINFORCED FRONT CLOSE TO THE MS/AL/TN BORDER REGION. THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED AT THE SURFACE AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM/MOISTEN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT, AND EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2. FARTHER WEST INTO NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN AR, SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT/WARM FRONT, AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND THE CAP WEAKENS. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER SUBTLE, SO THE PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE A MIX OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BUOYANCY GRADIENT/FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT, WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, STORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO MORE OF A SOLID BAND AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST, IN RESPONSE TO PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS, WITH CYCLOGENESIS FROM IL TO LOWER MI. ..EASTERN OK/NORTHWESTERN AR TO IL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEEPENING THIS EVENING ACROSS IL, BEFORE MOVING TO LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION, AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE/LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY BE DIRECTED INTO THE RATHER PERSISTENT ZONE OF CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TX TO WESTERN TN. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL LIMITATIONS TO THE WIND/HAIL THREAT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH THE MOST QUESTIONABLE AREA CENTERED ON NORTHWESTERN AR. ..CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN EASTERN TN HAS BEEN ELEVATED THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT SOME NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM SC INTO NC. GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR, AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER WITH SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM THE PIEDMONT EASTWARD ACROSS NC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SC.

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0074 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1122 AM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...TN CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 271521Z - 272100Z SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TN. DISCUSSION...HEAVY CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS FORWARD PROPAGATED EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF TN. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THE MOST FAVORED AXIS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IS LIKELY ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IT IS HERE...WHERE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPINGING ON THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. HAVE COMPETING FACTORS IN PLAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ON ONE HAND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE UPSTREAM OF THE CONVECTION, PWS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR GRADUALLY INCREASE, AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL PERSIST. ON THE OTHER HAND WE ARE GENERALLY IN BETWEEN FORCING MECHANISMS, AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING/BROADENING OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. THUS IT IS A TOUGH CALL ON HOW INTENSE/ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHAT WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT IN IS THE APPROXIMATE CORRIDOR OF FAVORED CONVECTIVE TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THAT IS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TN. THE MITIGATING FACTORS DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY KEEP THE ACTIVITY A BIT MORE DISORGANIZED/TRANSIENT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE CONVERGENCE AXIS, SUGGESTS AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN UPTICK IN MID/UPPER FORCING FROM THE WEST, ALONG WITH A RENEWED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT, HELPING RE-INTENSIFY THE CONVERGENCE AXIS. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL LIKELY BEGIN RAMPING UP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS UPTICK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. IT IS JUST LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE RISK MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EVEN DURING THIS PERIOD SOME FLASH FLOOD RISK IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST. CHENARD

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 AM CDT SAT MAR 27 2021 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ..SUMMARY SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND TORNADOES, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO RISK FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ..ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NEAR/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT, SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY, ALTHOUGH CONTINUED STORM MERGERS/FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH SHOULD CURB HAIL MAGNITUDES WHILE OTHERWISE POTENTIALLY YIELDING A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE STORMS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS, SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 276. THAT SAID, A MORE CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISK IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN UPSTREAM POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO EARLY TODAY, AS WELL AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST, WILL INFLUENCE HEIGHT FALLS/CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE REGION BUT NOT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, A SEMI-PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR MAY CONTINUE TO YIELD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THIS RAIN-COOLED AIR/OUTFLOW LIKELY BEING A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR (AND POINT OF UNCERTAINTY) ACROSS EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE (AND AREAS TO THE NORTH) REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LATER-DAY PEAK SEVERE RISK. TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THESE EARLY DAY STORMS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS, THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS/ARKLATEX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE, WHERE MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 2000-2500 J/KG. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR BY AROUND 3-6 PM CDT WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. FORECAST WIND PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH CONSIDERABLY STRENGTHENS, A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES (EF2+) WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. HOWEVER, THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF A SOMEWHAT MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE, COINCIDENT WITH THE TIMING OF ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET, LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HIGHER-END TORNADO POTENTIAL. AN UPSCALE-GROWING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN ASIDE FROM A QLCS-RELATED TORNADO RISK AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA, AND MUCH OF TENNESSEE.

TN ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 649 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT. * AT 649 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SAVANNAH, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 52 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 745 PM EDT THU MAR 25 2021 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH GEORGIA * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM UNTIL 200 AM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE TORNADOES, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN NORTH GEORGIA AND WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PROGRESSING INTO WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.

Warning cancelled No active Tornado warnings

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 530 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ALC007-252245- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0062.000000T0000Z-210325T2245Z/ BIBB AL- 530 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ASHBY AND BRIERFIELD ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL BIBB COUNTY... AT 529 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ASHBY, OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTEVALLO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ASHBY AND BRIERFIELD. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

cells maturing SW of Nashville TN

may have missed most of the towns to the south

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 454 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ALC007-105-252230- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0058.000000T0000Z-210325T2230Z/ PERRY AL-BIBB AL- 454 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CENTREVILLE AND BRENT ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL PERRY AND SOUTHERN BIBB COUNTIES... AT 453 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MERTZ, OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRENT, MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR CENTREVILLE AND BRENT AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 450 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ALC073-252230- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0059.000000T0000Z-210325T2230Z/ JEFFERSON AL- 450 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY... AT 450 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN BIRMINGHAM, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 445 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT. * AT 445 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN BIRMINGHAM, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

ALC065-252200- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-210325T2200Z/ HALE AL- 430 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL HALE COUNTY... AT 430 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SAWYERVILLE, OR 7 MILES WEST OF GREENSBORO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 410 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTH CENTRAL HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT. * AT 410 PM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR UNION, OR 8 MILES NORTH OF EUTAW, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

decent couplets in several cells over Western AL also mini cells devloping ahead of them too

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 51 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 345 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHERN INDIANA WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.