KeenerWx

While the possibility existed, no grand finale of aurora tonight. Ingredients just did not coexist simultaneously to produce a notable show. There were some eye visible periods of reds. But compared to last night, well, it didn’t compare. Still riding the high of the past week. Quite a treat to get slammed by terrestrial and space weather in short succession. Now to settle back into a slumber and wait. Can’t get too greedy.

Just some more compressed iPhone pics. Possibly at risk of spamming, but this event was incredible. First was ~10:37P when things were really starting to dance. Quick movements of pillars and bleeding of vibrant reds/greens. View is to the north. Second picture is at ~10:43P and looking to the SE. The contrast of the vibrant green “snake” leader was…something. Spook-and-awe.

Another impact will happen from the X5 flare earlier. The impact from the X5 flare was actually forecasted to be the strongest. From the two CME’s that led to tonight’s show, forecast was for G3 @ 7+ KPI. We got to G4 @ what looks like at this point 8+/9-. Tomorrow had been forecast G4 at 8/8+. All to say, some thought is that tomorrow will end up being even more extraordinary. The downside is that (1) peak is projected during daylight hours, (2) clouds will be a problem for many in the sub during the nighttime hours.

Directly overhead now in NW Indiana.

Aurora now naked eye visible on the horizon. Washed out haze of green and red at the moment, but we’ll see if we get any substorms that help put on a more vivid display.

Quite the middle finger pointed right into extreme SW La Porte & W Starke County. Cruel.

For those interested in space weather, G3 conditions possible late Tuesday night into early morning Wednesday with KP index forecasted as 7+. Not unlike the most recent snow event, a lot of variables at play. And we won’t really know a lot until game time. But nonetheless, potential is there to see aurora across parts of the sub.

Band dropped another 1.2” on its march back east. Three day total now at 8.3”. Most significant November event, locally, in my lifetime. Top tier lake event, too, but I don’t immediately know where it lands. Crazy that we’re already like 60-70% of the total seasonal snowfall for each 23-24 and 24-25. Hope the curse is lifted and there’s more fun to be had this winter.

100%. Especially as you are outside of the typical zone to cash in on lake snow. This was pretty much the perfect scenario and outcome for your area. Absolutely incredible.

Yeah. Lowell in Lake County (IN) has reported 10” and the best returns seemed to have been slotted west of them towards the Momence area. Wild event nonetheless. Even with the localized totals, quite a spread the wealth scenario across the southern Lake Michigan region. Now up to 5” overnight with event total at 7.1”. Seem to be about finished at this point. We’ll see what else the lake will provide as the primary moves back east over the next few hours.

What have you grabbed so far?

Hot damn. Report of 12” from Momence in Kankakee County. Not surprising giving radar presentation. Still going. At this point basically sealed as an all time lake event for them.

Pessimism got the best of me. Ended up adding another 3.5” tonight. With last night’s 1.8” and an additional 0.3” in the morning, event total is up to 5.6”. Depth ~ 4.9” with the melt earlier today. Bottom inch or so is quite iced. Tonight reminded me more of deep winter rather than early to mid November. Between the meso swinging south and the dominate band shifting back east through Monday, it’s feasible to pick up another inch. Locally “historic”. Will surpass the 2004 Thanksgiving storm totals at least. Perhaps most interesting tonight is that we had steady to heavy snow even without much or any radar presentation. Nothing too crazy but ~ 1” per hour based on measurement. Can’t imagine what it was like under the heavy returns.

Someone(s) in Lake, Porter, La Porte, St Joe counties will likely net 14-18” based on available reports and what is left with this event. Likely top tier lake driven event for Kankakee county and points southward as well. Less knowledgeable about their local history with LES but I have to imagine it’s limited on noteworthy events.

DAB+ vibes now locally as trajectory and upscale radar trends are not promising. Still an awesome event to watch unfold.

Looks like it will be a relatively short punch here downwind in Jasper County. Not bought into the deterministic output for snow accumulation. But that’s just experience talking vs any science applied. Still think there’s a shot of an inch or so. Looking forward to seeing what comes of this further north and west into the city.

Incredible How much have you gotten from the lake so far?

Took a tour through some cams across Porter County. Looks like perhaps a RA/SN mix along the 94 corridor. But down towards Valparaiso, snowing heavy & accumulating nicely.

Picked up 1.8” so far. We shall see how the rest goes. But here’s one of my cats enjoying a view as the intensity of snowfall started to increase.

Results TBD, but the early morning AFD from LOT is…quite

Switch to snow was late but not denied. Surprisingly efficient at covering the ground thus far. First flakes & measurable snowfall booked Edit 1 Hour Later: This defo band is serious business. It is ripping. Complete coverage of ground and pavement. Would certainly accumulate better with more favorable antecedent conditions. But wow - exceeding my own expectations.

This map is so goofy. I get the uncertainty with lake effect. And that this map is generated with probabilistic inputs. But while technically accurate, the labels for Elgin, Joliet and Kankakee just don’t make sense with the corresponding color regions.

P&C is up to ~2” here for whatever that’s worth. Expectations low for anything that meaningful given source. But pretty good shot at first snowfall/measurable snowfall, which is exciting itself.