downeastnc
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Everything posted by downeastnc
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This setup has tons of potential to be epic or to bust....if we manage to get breaks in the clouds and can get any kind of real instability like the NAM has, plus some kind of surface low reflection over the upstate of SC to back the winds then Friday could be epic.......it could also stay cloudy all day and be a typical skinny cape high shear squall line that gives sporadic bowing segments with winds 60-70 mph.....but overall a meh day.
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SPC write up for Friday included this.... ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper trough extending along the MS Valley early Friday morning is expected to continue eastward, maturing into a well-formed mid-latitude cyclone centered over the southern Appalachians by the end of the period. Very strong flow aloft will exist throughout the base of the upper trough, with the strongest flow developing within its eastern periphery Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday morning. 500-mb flow could exceed 100 kt, which is near record values across the Carolinas and into the mid-Atlantic based on SPC sounding climatology. In contrast to these impressive dynamics, overall thermodynamic environment will be marginal. Given that ample low-level moisture will be in place (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s and 100-mb mean mixing ratios over 12 g/kg), the modest instability is largely a result of warm temperatures aloft and consequent poor lapse rates.
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Tor warned cell headed for Hickory.....couplet looked decent over Valdese is weaker now.....
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SPC left tomorrow as a mod risk but man things could get ugly fast in Dixie alley and there will unfortunately probably be several long track strong tornados tomorrow, for us here in NC its much more murky....
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Latest NAM is pretty nasty for most of the SE this weekend into Monday morning....not sure how bad it would truly be in NC Sunday night but the soundings and stuff look rough....night time tornadic storms are the worse.
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84 over 61 waiting to see if these storms will hold up......
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Destabilizing quickly in eastern NC.....cape coming up fast, mid level lapse rates are good as usual the big wrench in the cogs is the shear.....20-25knts right now is not exactly blowing the doors off.....
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Video from Columbus MS looks pretty bad
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James Spann saying debris up to 14k.......
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There is a tornado doing damage in and around Columbus, very strong TDS now.....
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TDS over Columbus, MS .....
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He also had a 2 months medical leave early in 2018, he also mentions "personal challenges" which many times means some kind of substance or alcohol issues maybe....either way its his business and he will be missed. Now we have lost Skip Waters and Greg is leaving so there are not many old timers left.
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Now this is cold....Staples WI right now.... wind chill -64 lol eff that..... Fair -33°F -36°C Humidity 60% Wind Speed NW 18 G 23 mph Barometer 30.14 in Dewpoint -42°F (-41°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Wind Chill -64°F (-53°C) Last update 29 Jan 8:16 pm CST
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Red Sox won the WS and now the Pats are SB bound.....got a lot of folks to hit up at work tomorrow that talked a lot of smack, going to be a good day.
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ULL are fun but frustrating....models tend to do pretty badly with them as far as how intense they can be....like several have mentioned some big snows have happened in NC due to a ULL dropping in like this.....you just never know what they will do for sure. No one should expect more than say 1-2" but there could easily be a few spots that win out and get over that.....
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I will take the 18Z NAM 3k.....obviously overdone as it has a heavy "band" of snow just sitting over central eastern NC..... but I need it to be right.....
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The FV3, ICON and HRRR all have something similar to lesser degrees....temps will be a problem and overall it probably wont be a big deal but some models do put down a few inches....
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GFS 24 hr snowfall for the second system.....this shouldnt include anything from today
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Thats the thing, a few degrees one way or the other is gonna be huge for many people....even down my way a few degrees colder aloft and we could get several inches or more of snow/sleet. The flip side to that though is a few degrees warmer aloft and its sleet on top of above freezing surface temps well inland.....and all rain for us eastern folks. Need the suppressed track to win out, can not have the low right off the coast that never works out well for anyone other than the deep inland foothill areas.
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Problem is the temps at the surface are 33-35 for most of that...according to that it even MBY would be sleet/snow most of the storm though with temps just above freezing...so might be one of those times where we get a quick 2-4" of slop with the heavy rates before it lighten up and goes to cold rain......
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The high placement on the last frame is classic NC snowstorm placement and the snow coverage reacts accordingly......just need the next 2-3 frames now.....
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Colder and snowier much further east.....now if it will just go ENE from there instead of reforming off the NC coast we would be looking at a bigger event for central and eastern NC but that little jump north kills us.....
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PGV is 32/18 last frame of the NAM, track kills us though need this thing to stay heading ENE the entire time that turn up the coast is gonna cause problems well inland if it happens....
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Yeah going NE up the coast from SAV is going to do bad things.....the only people that cash in on that track are the foothill/mts.....the rest of us need a later phase or better yet a slow moving OTS track with a phase well off the SE coast....that track is gonna give the Triad etc ptype issues if it pans out.
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The one good thing is this thing cant really bust for me.....I would be sweating bullets if I was in the spots showing 12-24" every run.....we had a similar storm forecast down here a few years back, run after run of the Euro and GFS giving us 12-20" in central and eastern NC on the clown maps.....ended up with 3" of sleet......better to expect rain or a slushy 1-2" and get a foot than think your getting the big dog and ending up with tons of sleet. Seriously though if the cold can trend stronger the track should trend flatter and then snow totals would climb in central and eastern NC.....seeing some signs of that on the NAMS etc but still several days to go to hash it out.
