downeastnc

1.75" so far today....looks to be winding down though....

There are many many nights that I can look to my east and see the storms 100 miles east of me off the coast and watch the tops light up like this pic has....they look close but I know everytime I pull the radar up they will be off the OBX.....lightning doesnt light up water really anything you see is just light reflecting off the surface...a few good vids of lightning hitting water

Not sure how close this buoy got to the center of Hector but it gusted over hurricane force and had 30 ft seas..... https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=51002

I have had 6" in the last 9 days. Agree its odd that all the rain for the most part has hit between midnight and 6am in that period. Still Sept 2010 is the winner for best monsoon southerly flow event we have seen....right at 20" in 3-4 days....

Its nuts out there with the south flow the south facing beaches are deadly.......another guy drowned yesterday....10 others went to the hospital. http://www.witn.com/content/news/Drowning-confirmed-in-Emerald-Isle-multiple-people-rescued-489162191.html

4.5" in the rain gauge since last Thursday, 2" of that since midnight last night.....

Just a reminder to be careful at the beach drownings are all to common now.... http://www.witn.com/content/news/Three-drown-along-North-Carolina-coast-Saturday-488844601.html

The GFS continues to pound NC and the SE in general with rain the next few weeks.....6"+ for most of NC on almost every run for the last 7-10 runs,

The upside is you might get a chance to see a waterspout or two.....I kinda like stormy beach weather.....with onshore flows its really hit and miss but it will be mostly cloudy and you really need to be careful if you go in the water, rip currents have killed quite a few people this summer again.

Not a single day with a high of 90 or higher IMBY on the 06Z GFS, many days where upper 70's low 80's.....thats pretty crazy for mid to late July average high is 90/91 here this time of year.

88/55 giving us a 86 heat index...dont see that too often around here in the summer.

Wouldnt be surprised to see advisories at 5pm for a TD off the NC coast. The broad low level circulation has tightened up all day and the current increase in storms is close to the center. Totally not digging the "no floater available" issue at the moment.....

It varies quite a bit run to run.....could be a pretty nice cool shot right after the 4th.....I hope it pans out as I am at the river for the week after the 4th and mid 80's and some clouds are way better than mid 90's and sun.

Looks like the "heatwave" will be transient though middle of next week ought to be pretty tough with highs mid to upper 90's.....still after 3-4 hot days its back to normal or even below normal temp wise for a lot of the Carolina's at least. Days like yesterday and today I can deal with all summer long...

Models keeping on the trend for a normal to below normal first half of June temp wise in NC at least......there are a few hot 90ish days but also some barely breaking 80 days with DP's in the 50's...I will take that all day long in June

Yikes....widespread 3-5" totals forecasted for a lot of the SE.....the river here only a few feet from flood stage and still rising slowly, if eastern NC gets 4-6" as depicted on the WPC forecast then we should see most rivers go to at least minor flood stage.

PGV has 7.10" of rain recorded so far in May, and still manages to be 5.5 degrees above normal temp wise......be nuts to top 10" of rain for May, the current max monthly total for May is 9.71 back in 2012.

Looking very wet for the SE, chances increasing that the first tropical storm could hit and combined with strong southerly flow over the SE really make for another wet 7-10 days.

90L sure looks like its going to be the first named storm of the year.....that combined with the Bermuda High could turn the hose on much of the SE over the next 7-10 days. Locally the river here is only a few feet from flood stage given the rainy pattern we have already been in.....

Geez this at 1:20 is pretty insane....you have to watch it real time though....I think he thought the worse had passed when he walked back to the door...

Just about all the models have some kind of decently strong tropical low in the GOM/Florida area by day 10. Normally you wouldn't think much this time of the year but the GFS/CMC/Euro/ICON all have the storm day 8-10ish. With the pattern already being wet this could pose a problem if there is a more organized tropical low in that time frame hitting areas already getting 3-6" of rain leading up to it.

Yep between this GOM low and the SER sliding east the SE is going to be seeing a lot of deep tropical moisture headed inland over most of the SE..... The 12Z was wet and thats ignoring the Cat 3 hurricane it has at the end of the run lol....

slopgyre low over the eastern GOM and the SER should provide plenty of strong S/SW flow over the SE and that usually equals lots of daytime showers and storms coverage.....

The GFS is almost always warmer than all the other models in the summer sometimes ridiculously so....the NAMS keep temps in the 90-92 range with DP's in the low to mid 60's so while this weekend will be warm it wont be that bad when compared to mid summer when our actual average highs are 90-92 and DP hang out in the 70's. Still I wouldnt be surprised to see a few 92-94's in the typically warmer spots this weekend. The models all have a weak "low" forming in the eastern GOM and have that drift up over the SE mid next week leading to a extended period of shower/stormy weather and higher DP's, I would rather have 90-92 with DP's in the low 60's versus the 85-88 and DP's in the mid 70's we will have mid to late next week.

Could be some isolated severe storms in central and eastern NC thjis afternoon into the evening... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through early this evening. The primary severe weather hazards will be hail to the size of quarters and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe weather threat appears greatest between 3 PM and 8 PM.