downeastnc

hard to say....on the current NHC track the center goes 50-60 miles SW of MBY so it will close to that for you as well....and thats the center of the center if its a 20-30 mile wide eye we are talking more like 40 miles to the inner eyewall....I have a hard time believing I only get 56 mph wind gust when a Cat 3 is sitting over Jacksonville with us within 50 miles of the core..... it depends on the structure of the storm too, also the gradient between the cane and the ridge will be a player on the NE side.....every storm is different though....Fran's center was 75-80 miles SW of us here and we gusted to 100 in that one, and I was in the SW eyewall of Isabel and never gusted over 55.

Yeah figures the closer we get the more cloudy the forecast gets.....just need it to not stall so much get in and get out do not need a rotting tropical low sitting over eastern and central NC for 2-3 days ugh....

Ukie drops 50" of rain at Jacksonville, lots of 12-15" over central NC and 15-25" over most of eastern NC

Not really...the 18Z and 00Z are almost the same landfall spot 00Z maybe 20 miles more SW...it probably landfall in North Topsail within 20-25 miles of the official NHC track....its moving a bit more north though than the official track...the 18Z was more right into Jville... 18Z 00Z

yeah the approach is a bit more from the south landfall point is maybe 20-30 miles south, but people need to keep in mind how that part of the coast is.....Cape Lookout to Cape Fear is only 90 miles as the crow flies. A 20-30 mile wide eye going right up the middle will basically put that entire stretch of coast in the inner core.....

00Z ukie about the same hard to tell on these panels but right around Jville/MHX

00Z Ukie only got the panel for now close up will be another hr.....looks like the last run

The GFS wants to be like the other models but it just cant figure it out.....it still ends up inland but only after doing the ridiculous dumb crap to get there.....I mean i guess that could happen but its really the only one showing that loop really at this point....even the ICON came west like all the other models.....

The take away from the GFS and ICON is they both came further west closer to the consensus track, this lessens the odds of a OTS track or even a stall and rot east of Hatteras......they also both have the stall and west drifts although the GFS appears to want to take that to a whole other level.

GFS now south of ILM

ICON sits over the Pamlico sounds for ever......its wind map has MBY with 60mph or better gust for 24 hrs.....that would blow.....

Of course my first real hurricane Diana popped my tropical cherry.....I was 12 and she was the first real threat i remember..... It appears our two eastern outliers the GFS and ICON have shifted west a bit.....ICON also no biting on the stall and west drift all the others have maybe that is a real trend \...its a ****ty one though lol

Plenty of canes have stalled on or just off the coast.....usually though the models wouldn't be this clustered. The 00Z guidance is scary tight and the timing is getting well inside 72 hrs so just how much movement can there be in this range.....ultimately though if this thing stalls and loops offshore and misses altogether will anyone be that shocked......there just isn't much support for that at this time that all might change here in a few hrs with the 00Z's.

Yeah I imagine there wont be many if any hotel rooms left in Greenville by tomorrow....and coming here isn't gonna be much better lol.... the line for gas at every station I passed on my way to work was long......I get off at 11:30 gonna hit up Wal Mart they had generators earlier this evening.....I never ordered one cause it looked like it was gonna be south.....so this is my fault....gonna grab some other stuff too hopefully it wont be nuts at midnight.

Pretty clustered now just need them to shift east the next 6 runs...really though NHC has TS force winds onshore already at 8 am Thursday morning so that what 55 hrs out.....not much time for big dramatic changes......

HWRF is terrible for us.......6 hrs after landfall solidly in the north eyewall.....

Depends on track for us the current NHC track is bad enough we would be 30-40 miles from center on the N and E side not where you wanna be, any more shift to the east and we will be NE eyewall....really really don't wanna be there........could get some seriously high gust if that played out, look at what Irene did with 60-70's imagine 90-120 mph.

well inland its gonna be like that....only the immediate eyewall or rem of it will see any kind of high end sustained winds......but the sustained to gust ratio is higher away from the center.....take Fran for instance at PGV our highest sustained wind was around 45 mph but we gusted to 110.....in Bertha sustained was 40 but we gusted to 90...

Its based on Euro data from last run, the official NHC track is right of this a good bit the center would move on a line from Jacksonville to Goldsboro to RDU

I think that is Euro output from 12Z today maybe.....thought it was 00Z but that was further SW

What back and forth......the updates don't include where the extent of hurricane and TS force winds are....the storm will weaken, so that the Friday plot shows TS over RDU.....but it will be a major cane still over interior NC and depending on the wind field ( which will be large ) there could easily be strong winds well inland....I would think gust to hurricane force in the Triangle is probably likely maybe even significant hurricane gust especially on the east side...... which to me is 90+ mph, once the winds get 90-100+ its more than just trees coming down....

The FV3 version of the GFS is doing much better I think at least as far as being closer to the other models......the GFS is latched on to that stall off Hattersa then loop back in scenario....it will come around tomorrow......

Another thing to consider is that Flo will most likely be a steady state hurricane with massive CDO/eyewall. The timing of the ERC's could very well be the difference between a Cat 3 or 4....its not your typical sloppy 3/4 eye while the storm is shearing out cane we typically see...this means it will be able to hold up better when in comes inland and potentially bring some 100-120 mph wind gust pretty far inland, like RDU far....certainly farther than any storm since Hazel....especially along and north and east of center. Add the strong ridge building back in the north and there could be winds gusting 40-50 over eastern NC for a couple of days... This is practically the worst case scenario cane for east central NC.... its one I honestly never thought I would actually see play out.....hopefully I still don't.

Yeah the river 3/4 of a mile from my house has 6 ft if surge on it on the surge map with a Cat 4 lol, luckily this is the high side and we don't flood.....this is 20 miles up the river from Washington even.

Yep and with it slowing the east flow over the sounds will just lock in and not allow it to recede.....the river here will run backwards and then the rain runoff will try to go downstream and meet the surge tide and it will just be a mess.......until the surge runs out the rivers cant drain.