downeastnc

Figures..... NOUS62 KMHX 041238 FTMMHX Message Date: May 04 2018 12:43:55 The KMHX 88D will be down for maintenance until around May 13th. A team from the Radar Operation Center will be replacing critical par

Could be a tornado spinning up on that bowing segment of the line just SE of Denton, I think we got a poster from there, Asheboro area about to get rocked that rotation is pretty tight ATM....

Updated SPC disco Mesoscale Discussion 0221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 04 2018 Areas affected...the Delmarva into eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041727Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will form this afternoon and a few could contain enhanced gusty winds. DISCUSSION...CU fields continue to increase with daytime heating ahead of a cold front currently extending from western NJ into central NC. A few deeper showers were already organized along the front from eastern PA into NJ, with gusty winds noted along the leading edge. Scattered showers should continue to deepen across southeast VA into NC, with thunderstorms expected. While surface winds are already strong in association with the front, any thunderstorm downdrafts may augment wind speeds to near-severe levels locally.

Decent destabilization ongoing over eastern NC.....hi res models not impressed though....

Pretty good shift on the NAM finally......brings light accumulations further into NC.

00Z Euro so painful in the Triangle...... Edit: just watch the local news early edition and their futurecast 9 in house model shows snow NE of a line that runs SW of RDU and Greenville a bit and she didn't even mention snow said rain and didn't even allude to the dark blues over a lot of NC on the model run.

00Z runs still keep the general trend alive, totals a bit lower and less coverage on the GFS with lower totals for MBY, but the ICON actually gave MBY more this time around.... just seeing it snow decent this late in March is a win really...

The track is odd we need it to go another 100 miles SW to really lock in snow for many of us, that said the 1045 high to the north is big time and it actually moves SW from far eastern Canada almost Maine. If its any further SE than progged that would be a good thing....add the fresh snow pack to the NE and it just might be enough to get a general 1-3" hit along and NE of the track of the low.....as it stands now the GFS is a good hit anytime of the year for many of us much less late March.

Yeah the clown map is silly ( for late March at least) ....but probably a bit more realistic compared to the last 2 runs...

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/799-w-396-n/snow-depth-in/20180322-0000z.html here ya go the zoom is kind of wonky

Good for those right along the NC/VA border, the rest not so much....but inline more or less with the others.

Couple of nasty tor warned cells in south central Florida...if they hold up to the coast it will hit Ft Pierce and Port St Lucie which are pretty populated areas.

GFS has really jumped on board and the trailing low is about perfect for NC on the GFS, just need it 3-5 degrees colder....

Heads up for today

Yeah had no snow really over NC at all last run this run very much in line with CMC/Euro....just need another 100-150 miles further south with track and the better cold air and this would at least look a bit better than last system.....

This is the grid forecast for my peeps up in western Mass.....I was up there in Mar 2001 and my grandmother had 4-5 ft on the ground....looks like she could get 10-18" with this first storm. GFS nails VA pretty good on the 12Z run... Wednesday Snow, mainly after 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 30. North wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Could be one of the windier days in a long while ( outside of tropical system ) for a good bit of NC.....obviously the mts gonna gust 60+ but even the central and eastern parts of the state could go 50+ mph.....HRRR has 4-5 hrs with gust exceeding 40-45 knts for a large hunk of NC.

Strong couplet on cell between Newton Grove and Mt Olive....best looking one of the day I dont see a warning on it yet or my NWS is updating

wouldnt be surprised to see a few ground truths between Mt Olive and Kinston.....Fayetteville cell fell apart but two small cells are rotating the one near Newton Grove is pretty tight and could get a warning soon, same with the La Grange one

Tor waning on the western cell now gonna pass over or close to Ft Bragg.....but north of the major part of Fayetteville

New warning on that eastern cell, looks pretty legit on radar gonna pass just south of Kinston, one just west of Fayetteville now also still holding onto a pretty good rotation....

oh new storms firing closer to MBY.....reminds me of the day I had a tornado come within 200 yrds of my house back in Mar 2009.....very similar setup.

low top storms riding the warm front......wouldnt be surprised to see several more warnings voer the next 2-3 hrs....with the one south of Southern Pines being next they have put a severe thunderstorm warning on it but its got a fairly tight rotation with it.

Yeah basically right over Mt Olive.....storm is headed for the general Kinston area...a few other small cells with rotation west of this one as well.....one just south of Southern Pines looks like it could be a problem as well.