downeastnc

Honestly it would be like that all over I think, Fran was really bad on her NW side the center was 75-100 mile SW of PGV and we gusted to 110 so that track with that kind of storm would be the windiest hurricane in interior NC since Hazel, especially with the deep ridge off to the NE to really pack the gradient on that east and north sides...and then there is this....luckily the rivers are low but I dont know if they can deal with this.....

Yeah Euro real ugly for the Triangle to the coast.......probably 3-4 millions without power that run....

Euro gonna be NC this time or SC/NC border......looking like maybe Fran part duex only with Hugo.....

FV3 comes in just north of ILM.....then moves NNE across eastern NC before looping back down off SC and then coming up and hitting ILM again......the last 4 runs have hit anywhere from Hatteras to Georgetown SC.

Still havent hit the checkout button yet......so far the GFS is east of me and the Euro inland from me.....probably means I am screwed since the blend is right over me lol.....found one on Prime that I can get by Thursday even if I wait till tomorrow....

The ICON 00Z run is a miss just off Hatteras and the first non landfall run for the ICON in 3-4 runs.....it however has always been more of a S to N type track just inland over NC and most other models are more SE to NW......

Never fear i am about to order a generator off Amazon for Wed delivery this will all but assure the storm will not hit eastern NC....

No problem , like I said peak gust in Greenville was probably 70-80 mph and nothing in this video was that bad, peak wind hit right at dawn and the videos didnt come out really....most of this is like I said 25-30 mph sustained gusting to 50-60 at best....PGV reported wind gust to 50 or better for 15 straight hrs..... This is the next day....you can see my parents house on the right when we take the turn thats the carport we were under.....its also the carport Fran almost took out....

This is dumb, look I am a wind junkie I love it.....but there is a huge difference between Cat 1-2 winds and Cat 3-5 winds ( which this will likely be) ....this video I took from Irene shows how it is with 30mph sustained and gust to 60, and it was like that video nonstop for 12-15 HOURS.....you dont want more than this trust me. In Fran it was the middle of night no power winds hitting 100-110 in gust and the sounds outside of everything tearing up while you wonder if the roof stays on is not something you want to experience....or at least I hope not. Then there is the after effects, no power for a week or weeks, not able to work, it sucks.

So Burns you gonna be in MHX for this one Icon and GFS have gust to 120ish there.....if they are right I wont have to chase......

Yeah 12Z gave me the eye, this run I never quite get in the eye its maybe 30 miles further east moving more north, kinda goes Lookout,Aurora,Williamston,Ahoskie/Roanoke Rapids....havent been in the eye since Isabel but it was a ragged storm, Bertha was the only real true eye I have been in, and it was not like it was all blue sky though we did see blue sky.....many runs left to go but looking pretty likely that some part of NC is gonna be dealing with this storm....

Fran was a beast....we gusted to 106 in Greenville, I will never forget sitting on the porch with winds gusting into the 90-100 mph range and watching hundreds of flashes as transformers blew all over the city.....that and the trees coming down everywhere and wondering if the carport/roof was going to stay on the house lol. To bad it was a night hit for us.....they are easier to take in the light.

The big take away is that pretty much all the models except the GFS have a landfall or very near miss over NC in some capacity next Thursday......that is still a solid week out but I gotta admit to being a tad bit nervous at the model agreement.....it really does remind me a lot of Isabel that was a similar beeline WNW track that was pretty set in stone...that's one of the few storms that I knew was gonna hit 3-4 days out.....

Here is the wind gust on the ICON ( German model ) for landfall, center s\would be moving N or NNW still I think but this is the last frame on this run.....would be a crushing hit for the south beaches and interior eastern NC....this would have to be a solid Cat 3 to gust to 145.....

That CMC run is about as worst case for eastern NC as it gets track wise.....has Emerald Isle in the north and east eyewall the entire time, crushed Jacksonville down to Topsail then moves inland and had Greenville and New Bern in the north and then east eyewalls the entire time...this would put 10-15 ft of water up the Neuse and Tar rivers, then it stalls and rains out over central and eastern NC....ugh.

Storm still moving as far to the eastern edge of the cone as possible to boot, moving almost NNW at the moment.......gonna take a unprecedented track to get a US landfall especially with the storms current heading....

GFS came way back west and now misses just a few hundred miles offshore, the Euro also is back with a large hurricane hitting central SC up to Charlotte a la Hugo though not as strong obviously and from a much further north track....still the rainfall in the mts would be very bad I imagine.

Going back and looking closer the Euro has it hauling ass west really....if you connect the dots on the last two frames that thing is scooting WNW at best and it would take it slamming on brakes to not come in over NC and moving inland boot.... Run this on loop and it takes a hell of a hard turn to the west just south of Bermuda....is very Isabel like..... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2018090300&fh=144

The CMC has Florence making landfall and the Euro is on track to hit about were the CMC did.....the GFS turns it north east of Bermuda but I know where I would put my money lol.... Euro has it still offshore but it is moving WNW/NW the last two frames and if there was another frame would be darn near on top of the CMC position...crazy agreement from them actually though they get there different ways...

Thats a bit closer lol

First record low in the 40's for my neck of the woods is the last few days of Aug.....latest GFS is meh though the Lakes get some low to mid 40's......

PGV hit 55 last night which was also one off the record low of 54, though it was set in 1930.....

Gonna need that center to get within 50 miles of the coast to see any kind of real hurricane type winds....rains on the other hand will be biblical for some. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW. This buoy got very close to if not actually in the eye based on the winds profile and only gusted to 107 mph. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=51002 this sure looks like it took the eye to me winds went from gusting from 93 knts to 5 knts, pressure bottomed out at 956 MB 08 23 11:10 am WSW 3.9 23.3 - - - - 28.50 - - - - - - - 08 23 11:00 am WSW 3.9 15.5 - - - - 28.45 -0.42 - - - - - - 08 23 10:50 am WSW 1.9 11.7 17.1 10 7.6 NNE 28.41 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:40 am WSW 1.9 5.8 17.1 - 7.6 NNE 28.36 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:30 am W 1.9 5.8 - - - - 28.34 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:20 am W 1.9 7.8 - - - - 28.31 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:10 am W 1.9 5.8 - - - - 28.27 - - - - - - - 08 23 10:00 am WNW 3.9 5.8 - - - - 28.26 -0.87 - - - - - - 08 23 9:50 am WNW 1.9 5.8 25.6 10 8.2 NNE 28.25 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:40 am NW 1.9 9.7 25.6 - 8.2 NNE 28.27 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:30 am NW 5.8 21.4 - - - - 28.25 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:20 am NNW 9.7 36.9 - - - - 28.30 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:10 am NNW 25.3 44.7 - - - - 28.34 - - - - - - - 08 23 9:00 am N 38.9 60.2 - - - - 28.35 -0.96 - - - - - - 08 23 8:50 am NNW 48.6 56.3 31.8 11 8.2 ENE 28.37 - - - - - - - 08 23 8:40 am NNW 58.3 85.5 - - - - 28.45 - - - - - - - 08 23 8:30 am N 62.2 93.2 - - - - 28.60 - - - - - - - 08 23 8:20 am NNW 71.9 91.3 - - - - 28.64 - -

Got to go out and finally mow my squishy yard between working 6 days a week and constant rain its been tough and probably 2 weeks since its been mowed so I left mowers tracks all over with tons of clumped up grass.....rained off and on all night with lots of close thunder and lightning for the 3rd straight night....overall we have had a exceptionally wet 3-5 year period with the 3 yrs from 2014-2016 being better than 60" heck both 15/16 were within 1" of the all time wettest year and remarkably the difference between the two years at PGV was only .87"...PGV has received basically a extra years worth of rain since 2014.

Bet that has changed huh.....same training line that hammered you the last several hrs is over us now adding the the .50" we got around 6pm from the first round of storms.....