downeastnc

She does look rough at the moment.....would rather this be her 10 hrs from landfall, to much time left for her to get her act together.....

HMON with a 50 mile jump north with landfall....puts Bogue Banks in the north eyewall then moves west into Swansboro/Jville,....was just north of Cape Fear last run

Per the wind maps on Weather.us a lot of 60+ mph winds...she has a huge wind field if accurate it gets strong TS gust into the Triangle, this is why people need to stay focused.....not to mention that she still keeps on trucking NW away from the NHC track she could end up here sooner and north of where the forecast is now.....there isnt nearly as much stall either she keeps it moving though she does it slowly...still it makes more sense than sitting and spinning right on the coast the going SW to Charleston offshore....lots of people with no power this run

18Z GFS solid landfall this time....center gets inland NW of ILM 50 miles at least slowly drifting WSW....

Yeah wind tides like that are not uncommon..the water level there is 100% dependent on the wind...Belhaven is already higher since they take more water on a south wind, if the wind stays up overnight this gauge wont get below this again for 3-4 days at least with a stall SW keeping the surge in on the SE wind.....

So they have a plane sampling the ridge NE of Flo....that data would be in the model runs right? If not at 18Z then by 00Z for sure....

Looks like they dont think the short term track error matters downstream.... Therefore, only a slight eastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36 hours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based on the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant changes were required to the previous advisory track, which still shows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and western North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion up the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5.

She is about to run right out of the north side of the NHC cone lol.....it doesnt imply the NHC track is wrong down the road.....just that its wrong right now.....I cant figure out how to link a loop of her with the NHC track overlay from CIMSS.....so do it yourself http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

CMC at 12Z basically runs the what if the stall/turn is 75-100 miles later scenario.....this is still very plausible and with the way she is booking it NW right now the CMC may be leading the pack on a north inland correction.....bottom line this would put central, and inland eastern NC in legit hurricane conditions....CMC drifts WSW from here.....but this is the NW extent the center makes it this run. Not saying this is going to happen just saying this option is still very much on the table depending on the trough and ridge timing etc....

Yeah the skill just isnt there for the models to get this stall/turn down to the mile....for a lot of us it will come down to now casting the center, if the center on the GFS was just 50-75 miles further NW before it stops it would be the difference for instance of you seeing gust to 40-50 versus gust to 70+ and that would greatly change up the power outages and damage from trees on homes situation inland and her wind field is liable to be rather large to begin with...vice versa though if it slows stalls 50-75 miles sooner then that would lessen the impact inland by a ton and even on the coast some as well, though the long duration fetch will still produce insane surges.

The tornado threat will also be rather high in central and eastern NC especially with a stalling system as the outer bands more prone to tornados will be constant....imagine there will be tons coming on off the ocean over the OBX as well....

Its been my experience that storms approaching NC almost always correct NE a bit that last 12-24 hrs.....though let me add a obligatory "this is a different setup and every storm is different" statement to that , still I think if there are any shifts in the short term (so Thur noon into Fri morning) they will be to the north either with the stall itself or a more west or WNW drift instead of WSW drift....as the models see the block isnt as strong as they are seeing it as now.....or the ridge holds on a little longer etc...

Sure most models still bring the center up to just off SE NC.....again 50-100 miles will make a huge difference on things for a lot of us, and the models could easily be wrong about the actual stall spot. The models almost all have the storm headed right for MHX then stall it out in Onslow Bay just NE of ILM, then it sits for a bit then it heads SW, it stops about 50-100 miles south of us so any change in that point N would be obviously change our impact... it would not take much error for it to be the difference between 40-70 mph gust and 8-10" of rain and 70-100 mph gust and 10-20" of rain here..or if the SW motions is more W after the stall that would keep us in the heavier winds and rain longer...the current model runs still put us within 100 miles of the center on the N and NE side so winds gusting 50-70 would still be likely and with the stall it could be a long duration span with winds hitting 50-70 so comparable to Irene or Matthew in that regard, also though if the stall happens 50-100 miles sooner and we get almost nothing here.....this approach angle and slowing down will make it nerve wracking for the coast and eitehr way Thur-Sat is going to be a long 48 hrs for a lot of us....so I would be cautiously optimistic that we wont see much more than 40-60 mph gust and 10" of rain.

Looking on the weather.us site and looking at the winds, MBY never goes over the 70 mph line but it stays in the 55-70 mpg gust zones for more than 24 hrs.....which is believable we had hurricane force gust from Irene when she was SE of Lookout.....it has 50 mph gust as far inland as RDU and Rocky Mount with Flo even when she is offshore....so imagine if it did come another 50-75 miles NW before stopping and ended up over Goldsboro/Wilson thats why I am still concerned a bit,....she could also stop sooner and keep all the wind confined to the coast....this is why stalls suck.

This GFS run just shows how much a 75-100 mile change can make, between 54 and 60 it slams on the brakes barely stopping before landfalling in Onslow Bay if it goes another 50-100 miles before stopping it changes things for a lot of people inland.....and that 100 miles is well within the margin of error in the 50 hr range....

For what its worth the ICON is sticking to its guns getting up to Cape Lookout/MHX again at 00Z......its going to sit over Bogue Banks for a bit then move W inland like the previous run.....very similar to the Ukie 12Z run as well.

This is where I am, I too think its gonna dump in somewhere between ILM and J'ville, though if the eye is big enough it might be big enough to cover that whole stretch.....it will move WNW inland a bit then stall and then move more NNW and eventually to NNE......and probably spend way to much time over central and eastern NC....there is still around 54 hrs before landfall and there will be another north trend in the models.....

I suspect they drop it just over or just north of ILM.....

Also keep in mind that where she stops is very dependent on several things and the models could easily be off on those things by 100-150 miles in this range and that will have major implications obviously....this is probably why the NHC is in no hurry to majorly change its forecast track.....

Interesting maybe this stall business will vanish by tomorrow's run.....or at least just be a slowdown....

Hey post me up a link to those TAB outputs.....

Yeah use the NWS not WRAL.....they have models they use and it changes every run...if the models drop the stall and go back to a better hit inland on NC they will have to change there maps the NWS wont lol....

The winds aloft will still be screaming though at 850 and it wont be that unusual for them to mix down so you can have sustained 30 mph winds and still gust way up to 60-80....its common with well organized landfalling storms.....better you expect 100 and get 50 than expect 50 and get 100....

yep that plus the length of time is stalls, the SW track, the loops etc should all be taken with a large grain of salt.....more realistic IMO would be a slow crawl WNW/NW onshore like the Ukie and Icon have....

18Z Icon was very similar to the 12Z Ukie landfall over Cape Lookout then slow west drift inland then SW towards CLT.....