downeastnc

The thing with these tracks like this is the gradient between the strong ridge and the cane really beef up the NE side well away from the center.....the peak wind gust in Fran were 50-100 miles northeast of track...i went thru the same mess with Fran we gusted 100+ and we really were not expecting more than 50-60 due to the track being farther away. Then when you consider Fran was "only" 115 mph cane when she hit and this thing has the potential to be 125-140ish......ugh......then it stalls and rots...ugh again...its almost like it has to end up OTS because this is like the worst case scenario we always talk about happening one day....... and now it looks like that day is this Thursday and that cant really be happening cause this is what we always talk about but never believe will actually happen....

FV3 has actuaslly been crazy consistent the last 5 runs

The Euro ens are conditional to the strength of the storm though.....all the ens that take her to central SC have her as a Cat 1/2 for the next 2-3 days. The Euro ens that take her to Cat 3/4 over the next day end up Myrtle to Morehead....the Ukie shifted north considerably over the last day....CMC came back north for what its worth and the FV3 version of the GFS has hit basically the same spot in NC 5 runs in a row.....the only misses are the GFS and Icon and they are both east offshore barely.... At this point there is tons of agreement that the center will cross between the SC/NC border and MHX moving WNW or NW into interior NC....the ridge to the NE will also make the NE side brutal...reminds me a lot of Fran the center was 75-80 miles SW of us and we still gusted 100+ and she was a 115 mph cane...this one is liable to be 125-140.....seriously and without trying to sound all alarmist as it stands this is about as worse case a scenario NC has seen ever. A large steady state Cat 3/4 with 20-30 mile wide eye slamming into the south beaches headed NW towards Triangle and Triad....doesnt get much worse that that for NC. Still though there could be enough variance in the strength and location of the ridge to move the landfall point around but probably not more than 50 or so miles either way.....the models just probably dont have a large scale feature that wrong in the 2-3 day range....

Ukie 12Z today headed WNW comes in goes between Fayetteville and Goldsboro, wouldnt matter though that kind of hit would give 100 mph gust or better for almost all of eastern NC inland to RDU and the coast well ....especially with the strong ridge to the NE.....

Its not really 5 days out since hurricanes are not single dots on a map, by dawn Thurs conditions at the coast would be nearing TS force and going down hill dramatically and by Thurs evening the entire eastern half of NC would be experiencing TS conditions with cane conditions moving ashore.....that means folks along the coast have less than 4 days at this point assuming the timing is correct....

where are you?

Gville does ok with power loss usually, Bertha and Irene power was out 12-18 hrs.....Fran was a day or so.....but folks living in the county can go weeks....also if this thing does get in here and slow down we could see many hrs of hurricane or better gust.....I live in Simpson but my kid goes to Conley

Food Lion was a mess, no bread and all the water was gone except for the Deer Park brand of which they have a tractor trailer full and have it sitting out on pallets all over the store..they had as employee helping load it in carts for older people he said they had 3 more trailers full of water coming in over the next 2 days to just that store.

The NHC disco covers it well.....and it makes sense, based on all the model speeds and strength projections the further N track into NC makes more sense.....doesnt mean that wont change by any means though but based on all the current data and models it more likely to go MB to Lookout that Hilton Head to Charleston.....there will need to be pretty large errors with the 72 hr track and strength plots for the more southern path to occur and there is a lot of agreement and low error in that range.

Look at the NHC discussion to see why there is little chance this is going south of Charleston....the only way that happens is if Flo goes against all intensity forecasting and remains weak....all the ENS members that hit FL/GA keep her a weak Cat 1 for the next 2-4 days.....all the ens that have her undergoing RI and becoming a Cat 3/4 are north SC or NC....

They explain why they disregard the southern tracks on the ENS well in the 11 am update....also that last sentence is concerning.... Florence continues moving slowly westward, caught between a pair of mid-level ridges over the Atlantic Ocean. A very strong ridge is forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few days, which should steer Florence west-northwestward at a much faster forward speed. By Wednesday, the hurricane should turn northwestward, and slow down somewhat due to another ridge forming over the Ohio Valley. It is interesting to note that while the ensemble means from the ECMWF and UKMET are west of the NHC forecast, the strongest members are on the right side of their ensemble envelope. Thus, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and continues to lie between the corrected consensus and consensus aids. The Ohio Valley ridge is concerning because Florence could stop moving pretty quickly around day 5, potentially leading to a serious heavy rain episode and inland flood hazard.

This is really old.....this has the storm as 110 mph and at like 48W.....she is at 56W west.....I would put the chances at this thing being off Cape Canaveral that close to Florida at extremely low with zero model support.....

Going to be a pretty impressive display by her today organization wise.....she is ready to go off and it looks like it might be starting conditions are about as good as they get.....she is trying to clear a eye now.

06Z FV3 is worst case landfall location for the south beaches IMO.....it basically comes in Onslow Bay right into Jacksonville, this puts Emerald Isle in the north eyewall and Topsail down to Kure in the south eyewall....basically gives eyewall/inner core conditions to every beach from Cape Lookout to Cape Fear then moves inland to around Wilson maybe putting RDU in the western side if the center...while pounding all of NC east of 95.

That's the thing usually the storms coming at us under a strong ridge off NE ( which is admittedly only a few storms) all came on in and the models had good agreement on that 3-5 days out... Flo could still slow and turn up the coast just offshore, how many times have we seen that happen....its dozens. However when you look at the NHC forecast and models they all agree at least Mon-Thur the storm is hauling ass and strong as hell.....if its gonna slow and miss the models are not seeing it yet and I mean how wrong are they going to be with large scale features in this range? I would feel better about it shifting OTS if there was a larger spread in the models ens but if anything the clustering is getting tighter.

Well on the track they are currently calling for Charleston would be totally fine, even more so by Saturday....Philly should be ok as well as the storm will be over NC/VA then if it does indeed come ashore....

yeah plenty of time to see this miss to the east......the crappy part is that it probably wont be evident its gonna miss until late in the timeline.....this isnt your typical NC cane hit setup or approach angle though and usually when these type of setup occur they tend to be less wishy washy and come on in....Isabel/Fran etc....both were pretty locked in by 4-5 days out. We knew they were coming and chances of landfall where high.

One thing that should be stressed is this is not your typical Cat 1-2 NC cane threat and should be taken with extreme seriousness...especially anywhere that will be along or east of this things eventual track....

getting real....NHC plots landfall Cat 4 130 mph ILM......still 5 days out also why does it gotta be nighttime.......

You can hear them big gust coming....in every hurricane I have been in there is the normal steady roar but the big gust have a certain "rumble" to them and you can always hear the bigger gust coming sometimes for a min or two, and they are spaced out so you hear them coming then they hit then for a few mins its just the steady wind sound then your start to hear a rumble again etc etc etc, the closer to the center you get the faster the bigger gust come......and in Bertha we got the eye and you could hear ( and feel ) the rumble of the backside coming for a good 5 mins before the wind kicked back up. Its surreal how the winds went for almost totally calm to gusting steady 60-80 in just a couple of mins.....

The FV3 closer to the Euro now without the annoying loops though it does stall a bit....this run would probably give me the eye so if I gotta deal with the cane at least I have that to potentially look forward too.....

I can hold off till tomorrow afternoon on the gennie...found one on Amazon with Prime I can get it Thur even if I order it tomorrow......so if the models consensus still shows the ILM north towards me scenario at 12Z tomorrow I will order it. The model spread is not very large now and this is starting to look like a typical climo NC/SC border hit moving NNW to NNE over central/eastern NC.....I am officially concerned, a Cat 1-2 bring it on Cat 3 or better go OTS please.

HWRF on the Euro train for now....130 mph at landfall RIP south beaches.....North Topsail down to Kure beach would just be obliterated.....

yeah the GFS is drunk and needs to go home.....though that is the weird meandering crap these storms do if the steering currents get weak.....still of all the outputs this has to be the least likely....they said that about Harvey last year too though.....

So the main thread needs a mod or two badly....time to go scorched earth over there...... GFS smokin crack crazy loop and dumps a insane amount of rain.....that plus the constant onshore flow would back the rivers up with surge and just make this friggen terrible....good thing this is a pretty unlikely scenario...at least the OBX wouldnt need to worry about flooding from the 3 ft of rain they get since surge would already be taking care of the flooding....