Frog Town

A strong out POS would be money for many of us around here. #desperateforsnow

I have never had a ticket in my 30 years of driving. Secret Service agents kind of made fun of me in a background investigation. Grampa was my nickname growing up.

Cave to what?

Interesting development...

Keep that Banana High to the north a little stronger and we're in action!

Having it fall apart 24 hours before would be a treat! We haven't even had something to track within 5 days.

Weather sucks and I don't believe in Winter any more! Maybe Krampus will come now!

Euro dumps legit arctic air into the sub around new year. However, this guy is December bitten, January shy...

Save for the Artic outbreak of 93 and a Post Holiday Blizzard of 98/99, it was a lack luster decade for this snow

Correct. With a snow storm on Christmas Eve. One of my favorite Christmas periods weather wise.

I remember that "4 days later...." part. Pretty epic for the middle part of the sub.

And once you do that, hell will freeze over. We may have a grasp on the physics of it, but otherwise we are still in the infancy stages. No offense to anyone.

I like his calm and collected approach. JB and others are just losing their minds with all the other bullshit that's going on. Politics is poison these days.

Definitely looking like things will turn around for the better as the Holidays approach. A lot of ensemble support that doesn't seem to be fading as we approach.

No such thing!

The fly in the ointment... Nice analysis from GRR: Impact of Tropical Storm Rai (west Pacific) on our weather for next week As it turns out, Tropical Storm Rai, in the western Pacific is heading due west toward the Philippine Islands. It should become a typhoon by this evening. Why to we care about this in Michigan? As it turns out, it will have a major impact our weather for the next week. What this does is it stalls the MJO on the edge of phase 6 to phase 7 since in phase 7. In phase 7 the area near the Philippines should be dry. That changes the entire northern hemispheric wave train. It will delay the arrives of the really cold air till after Christmas (we need a solid phase 7 for that cold air to get here). This means largely zonal flow for our area for the next week. That will prevent any strong pushes of cold air and also not allow the much phasing with the next two storm systems that follow the Thursday event.

It's out there but I love that look. Not gonna get too excited yet.

Too early to make that call. Not saying it won't, just too early. I'll put a Christmas Ale on it that that the pattern next week makes a massive adjustment towards cold by this Thursday.

Cold and dry to you is totally different for them with the Lake to their Left... Plus, Cold and dry is a step in the right direction.

True statement right there. My point is, it's the first time I've read a NWS discussion that was optimistic about a pattern change. That's enough for me to get excited at least.

Man! C'mon people. It's gonna get cold an snowy in time for the holidays which is the opposite of what we've been dealing with and you all sound like a bunch of whinners, lol. "This is the jolliest bunch of A-holes this side of the nut house."

Finally!! Grand Rapids goes all in: - Winter makes a comeback As I wrote about yesterday the MJO goes into phase 7 later this week. That will force it to get colder and stay colder late this week and more so next week. While the models are not forecasting much snow, it has been my experience that when we stay below freezing for more than a week, it finds a way to snow. So I am thinking it will snow the week leading to Christmas. If nothing less a lot of lake effect. The ensemble means for the Canadian, GFS and ECMWF all show highs below freezing from the 20th through the 28th. Winter weather will come back.

Look at it like this. In order for most of us here to experience the Winters of Yore, we may have had to participate in World War 2?? Having the winters get warmer and more frustrating may be a small price to pay, if you know what I mean. This is how I cope.