Frog Town

Holy crap! You weren't kidding. If I recall correctly, 2013-2014 started in a similar way. Cold was forecast then it kind of took it's time a bit, and then WHAM! November of that year had a few cold out breaks around Thanksgiving, then It was up and down with a descent snow in early December before it got epic around the holidays. We shall see..

I always thought it was cool how Grand Rapids does an extended prelude! Actually starting to get a bit excited, considering my state of mind at this time last year, staring down the barrel of december torch. "Change to colder follow next big storm This is where it gets interesting. Due to the MJO going into Phase 8, which is cold for a large part of the central and northern CONUS we are likely to get back into the deep freeze after the 6th of December. This is well supported by the ensembles of both the GFS and ECWMF. In fact the latest model runs show part of the northern Midwest into Montana with a 5 day departure from normal over 20 degrees below normal! We will need to watch this closely, this could have significant impacts on our area."

Was literally staring at the radar as the dry slot slide 10 miles to my SE and I was square in some nice deformation thinking the exact same thing. Feel like I never get in the sweet spot, unless it's a rain storm.

Starting my first topic so maybe beginners luck will help us all out.... Seems like a lot of things(MJO, EPO, NAO, AO, etc.) are lining up for a cold and potentially snowy month. Let's see what happens!

Everything about this fall feels like December is gonna be rockin....Teleconnections to boot! I'd rather have this weather now and have things turn quickly in early to mid December.

12Z Euro kinda tosses our sub a bone...kinda The trough axis is sitting in an ideal spot for a minute

I love your insight but stay away, lol.

Clearly the best December I can remember with almost 20" on the ground for Christmas with cold weather. I'll take that over a solid Jan-March anytime.

John Dee's winter prognostication is supposed to come out tomorrow(10/26). Waiting in anticipation!

December 24-25, 2002. NW Ohio Christmas miracle. Great Topic and question, Hoosier!

Is it just me or is the CFS throwing some cold for Jan/Feb/March. I feel like in the past it's always torched that far out. Curious??

Lets get on with Winter already! Can't wait to track our first storm and lose my mind cause I'm getting dry slotted.

One complete cycle for Earth takes about 26,000 years. By itself, the wobble of Earth's axis does not directly cause temperature changes like orbital shape and tilt. But it changes the portion of the orbit at which a given season occurs - that is, it changes when a particular season will occur.

We are lucky to have your updates! Thank you.

Everything here has been hyped and underachieving. Watch this go the opposite...lol.

00Z from last night was a rare gem for these parts. I'll take that are bring on the heat.

Not sure if you any of you follow John Dee?? He fell ill a few weeks back and has since stopped posting on his site. Was curious if any knew how he was doing??

0Z Euro has an epic system just 5 days out for much of the sub. Curious.

dud. Dry slot from hell.

Looks like Grand Rapids is gonna issue Winter Weather Advisories. This is gonna leave SE MI in an awkward hole.....Curious.

12Z Nam beginning to show it's hand. Before you get too excited, the stuff in Mid-Ohio is sleet and freezing rain. SE Michigan looks to take the cake with this one, at least with this model, on this run. We are getting into the NAM's "accurate" range.

or 4 weeks...but who's counting.

WE are clearly becoming more confident as the winter goes on. Starting a thread a week out back in December would never happen. IN this set-up I say SE but with the SE Ridge coming back to life it becomes a Monster. 2008 repeater for CMH...

I know I got shit for it, but he descending air mechanisms that dry slot produced, while it filled in, definitely did damage and changed the dynamics of the trowel making it more convective in nature. Hence the weird numbers everywhere.

The shitty thing about my location is, that once we got dry slotted the returns are becoming convective in Nature. Not that nice meso banding that was going on west of Toledo. I can count on one hand in my 45 years that everything lines up. This is a frustrating hobby.