Frog Town

Realist!

Smells a lot like '13-'14 all over again! Everything that year trended colder and snowier. Please, just please.

Weather history buffs, help me out here. It was early December 2000, and we had a setup similar to what we’re seeing now—a hybrid-type low dropping out of Alberta. It was originally forecast to behave a lot like this weekend’s storm, but instead it tracked farther south and nailed Ohio and southern Michigan. I had just graduated college and remember being caught off guard by the shift. Ironically, that December ended up being one for the books, turning into one of the coldest and snowiest on record for these parts. Thanks for starting the thread, Michsnowfreak.

All I needed to hear. It seems like every year people throw out that Winter, but it's nice to hear it from a more critical/educated voice.

You don't see this that often so things can, and have, been worse.

I think a lot of use are suffering from PTSD and a very skeptical despite what all the models are saying. '16-'17 was a year that we chased SSW and blocking all season long for it to end up somewhere else.

Outside of the lake affect-NW Ohioian here-do you think the more southerly track of the AI models has any merit with regards to the synoptic event. They've done pretty well this Summer and Fall.

Curious to see if these new AI models, and their more southern tracks, win out on this one?? Very consistent and did well this Summer and Fall...

What's the problem with a 7.69% accuracy rate??

One trend I've noticed in the past 20 years is we just can't hold a neutral enso, which is ultimately what we all want for winter in this sub. Just when we thought it was gonna happen, La shit head pops back up to give a screaming pacific jet for the late fall/early winter weather. Just sucks. La Nina/El Nino have always been a thing, but the frequency has definitely changed. Curious.

Curious if the pattern is trying to tell us something for the upcoming Winter? When was the last time Summer ended this cool? Obviously more questions than answers but getting a little excited with how things are setting up.

Can we get a Winter thread going already!? The withdrawal symptoms are killing me..

Wrong thread and all the other crap, I know, but I'm just gonna leave this right here... It's never too early in my book and I know most of you are as nutty as me! lol. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1Hdk5E2Wr6/

I know you're a stats guy but this is consistent with what's happened the past few years with this set-up. End's cooler vs. warmer.

Battery expansion. Need a new battery, fellow Toledo'n

I have a feeling that the system next week 3/5 and 3/6 is going to surprise a lot of people on the cold snowy side The following week we torch.

At this point I say bring it.

Thank you! I thought you might know.

Some historian can correct me if I'm wrong but our biggest snow storm in recorded history for NW OH was in early March some time in the early 1900's after a very similar winter to what we currently in. It was something like 20"+. Not that I want that crap in March only to watch it melt away in a few days.

None of this even comes close to verifying so I wouldn't feel too ripped off.

While I'd love a north trend with this, the TPV will keep it south.

This will be the one that explodes and surprises everyone. It's kind of fun going into it not knowing what to expect. Definitely interesting watching the local TV Mets riding the line of that "not sure exactly what to expect" look.

Duration and uncertainty give pause. Maybe this afternoon if trends continue. Seems more like a long duration WAA.

Once thing is clear; this thing has a ton of moisture.

I just like that we have these two big hitters analyzing this stuff. That means it's legit.