Frog Town

I remember this storm. Arctic air raced across michigan during the storm and caused a rapic change over from heavy rain to crazy wind and snow. I stayed up all night for the transition and it was epic. Even had Lightning and thunder here in toledo.

unfortunately this is where we were with this Tuesday's storm and look how that turned out for Southern Michigan. Wait till Thursday night.

Curious if these NW trends are a result of a classic set up of cold(with the PV position) and that it's foreshadowing the rest of the Winter.

Man! The 12Z G-spot was a cold run as well. Great follow up to a giant spread the wealth pattern.

It'll come back home.

Depending on if this whole polar vortex thing is a tease, which happened often during the 2015/2016 Winter, then it really is following that winter.

Amen to that and my four little ones!

Wow! Grand Rapids in taking this seriously... -- Increased chances for impactful mid-week winter storm -- Confidence is growing that there will be a winter storm either directly impacting or in the vicinity of Lower Michigan. In fact, ensemble guidance has begun to converge on a solution that, should it occur, would be reminiscent of our recent December 22, 2022 blizzard. This would mean widespread snow accumulations well over 6 inches, followed by lake effect snow along with very strong northwest winds that could produce blizzard-like conditions Wednesday morning. However, precipitation type is far from certain; a significant rain component remains possible and this could significantly curtail snow accumulations. While what`s described above is far from certain at this point, I still feel it is worth mentioning now as a possibility for the following reasons: 1) It is not too early to be thinking about contingency plans for possible travel and power disruptions next week. 2) There has been a signal for a major pattern shift starting nearly a week ago. This has consistently featured a deep, strongly phased western U.S. trough resulting in surface cyclogenesis in the lee of southern Rockies. These have a strong climatological propensity to track northeast towards the Ohio Valley, often while deepening. 3) Past storms in recent memory exhibiting this pattern showed remarkable predictability and consistency in model guidance leading right up to the event. This presumably has much to do with inherent predictability associated with deep longwave troughs such as the one we`re dealing with now. 4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE), indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980 mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2 or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere. While it`s easy to focus on what snow occurs (which undoubtedly could be especially jarring given the winter that we`ve had so far), we are just as concerned about the wind threat that may manifest on the back side of the exiting, deepening low. The official forecast will continue to smear wind speeds downward due to averaging of model solutions, but it should be noted that we could in fact experience very significant northwest winds and gusts that may impact much of Lower Michigan sometime in the middle of the coming week.

Curious if the Polar Vortex split pushes everything SE a bit?? It happened back in 13-14 a few times, although the PV orientation is different this time.

I'm not gonna watch any models until 12Z Monday.....Not! Kind of enjoying the emotional rollercoaster, LOL. Also looks good down the road so we could be looking at snow on snow, which we have not had in a long time.

You and I have been on this forum for years and seen our share of a-holes. These post are not of ill intent and far from what we've seen before, plus on topic. It's a weather forum and we are all pretty much nerds(Never, Ending, Radical, Dudes) so just relax a bit.

This weekend's Nor'easter did trend weaker and SE. Seems to be following last year's trends.

12Z EPS SLP track is text book for the NW half of the sub with a track from Cinci to CLE.

I figured it'd be between him and HandPalmGuy, or whatever his name is LOL.

This is not a recent post from Ryan Wichman as I know him personally and he has not made this post recently. Must be really old or from a different account.

I've summited both the Tetons and Mt. Whitney in the past year. I was shocked at how much snow was at the top of Mt. Whitney this past August. Almost couldn't make it to the top. Middle Teton not so much.

Truly epic! I couldn't start the track season until mid April due to the actual glacier draped across the track.

When I was trick-or-treating with my kids on Halloween and it was 32 and snowing, I joked with them and said, "Watch it be 60 and raining on Christmas"......

My thoughts exactly. Our first accumulating snow fall that year was during spring break... We actually went sledding but the 8" melted off by noon.

Dude! I'm sure you're a good guy but this is how I picture you......Annoying the piss out of everyone.

Thanks for the feedback. This Winter just seems to resonate similar to that Winter so far, but I hope that changes.

If my memory serves me correctly, wasn't 2015-16 a Winter where the cold was always two weeks away but ended up staying on the other side of globe all winter?? I also remember a constant modeled SSWE that always threatened but never really materialized. Am I getting the right Winter?? This one is starting to feel a lot like that one...

I love your optimism. Hoping for a turnaround in early January.

I guess things always seem better when you've hit rock bottom.

Stebo, I've always respected your opinion and insight into the weather. What are you thoughts on what the teleconnections are showing towards the end of December? I'm getting that feeling we are chasing a ghost as things continue to get pushed back.