Frog Town

The Euro seems to think that Winter will come back Mid-January and beyond...

That lead to 70's in February in 98'!! Not good...

Most models have MJO in entering phase 8 by January 10-ish, albeit low amplitude so don't expect it to last long.

Of course, the cold is gone and the Euro sends a storm to Cleveland putting my area in the perfect spot for a snow storm if there was any cold around. Good lord!

Nail in the coffin for the NW Ohio/SE Mich peeps...sorry. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Latest radar, 0z model guidance, and surface observations suggest that we are perhaps entering a perceived "lull" in the precipitation along the arctic front, especially across NW OH this evening as the upper-jet energy begins to arrive across the Lower OH Valley which will lead to explosive cyclogenesis late tonight into Friday. This may lead to lower snowfall totals and overall impacts across NW OH. However, we are currently watching an area of precipitation across SW OH that continues to strengthen, noted by multiple surface observations of moderate to heavy snow at times. This area of precipitation will work its way north and east into the region later tonight in conjunction with the strong, arctic front. This will be the area to watch for any significant impacts with regards to snowfall rates and/or blowing snow overnight and into the morning hours.

Nail in the coffin for the NW Ohio/SE Mich peeps...sorry. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Latest radar, 0z model guidance, and surface observations suggest that we are perhaps entering a perceived "lull" in the precipitation along the arctic front, especially across NW OH this evening as the upper-jet energy begins to arrive across the Lower OH Valley which will lead to explosive cyclogenesis late tonight into Friday. This may lead to lower snowfall totals and overall impacts across NW OH. However, we are currently watching an area of precipitation across SW OH that continues to strengthen, noted by multiple surface observations of moderate to heavy snow at times. This area of precipitation will work its way north and east into the region later tonight in conjunction with the strong, arctic front. This will be the area to watch for any significant impacts with regards to snowfall rates and/or blowing snow overnight and into the morning hours.

Despite this thing falling apart all around me, I will see i've never seen my barometer drop like this as I sit directly underneath the bombing cyclone here in Toledo..

All Hi-Res models are seriously drying things out for SE MI. Could just be me, but lots of wholes. Globals aren't doing this. Curious?

HRR seems like it's trying to strengthen the low in Western Ohio. That would slow things down a bit and increase snow a bit for the western Ohio and SE MI crew.

I would typically by more disappointed with the amount of snow forecasted, but considering it's gonna torch by next weekend, I really could care less.

Well said! May set my alarm as well. Got lots of gifts to wrap anyways.

The December and January prior to the Blizzard of 78 was mild

For those in NW Ohio and SE Michigan, the 18Z Euro is the answer to your prayers. Thet's the track that this storm needs to take for all of Michigan to cash in.

That's the best model run i've seen all day, lol. I guess it's better it's at the end of the day vs. the beginning...

One hell of a cut off in SEMI though. Drive 20 miles and you go from 2-4" to 12". I'm on the 2-4" side.

I'll be brutally honest. BAM nailed this potential of a secondary low development yesterday and really stuck to their guns of a snow field that is now being projected by all the models.

Anyone thinking there could be a secondary low development further south?? Could explain why less moisture is making it north.

You referring to the incoming Euro?

I notice the NAM is a bit slower with the SLP at 84 hours. Would this argue towards a further East solution?

Again, you can't let the Operational(especially the GoFuS) get you down. The ENS of that model actually has the SLP going over CLE. This would still provide the Sub with an awesome storm. This should start to tighten up in about 36 hours. Patience.. Last night 18Z GFS had it over PIT

Good point, but a counter point is this is NOT a typical pattern we are entering so CLIMO is off the table so to speak.

I may be mistaken, but wasn't that 2002? I only remember cause I just bought a new house and was up all night painting.

Basically you should be happy if your state is covered in blue at this juncture.

This is still the only thing we should be looking at right now....patience, or you'll be disappointed. Carry on.

Thought this one might draw you out!