Frog Town

Final call time, huh? 11" imby with 50+ wind gusts along with temps crashing to single digits. Krampus is coming...

Great perspective, and insight, thank you!

Nice to have a local met rooting my area. 2017 was a cold pattern starting in early December so the robust clipper that dropped 5" in our area Christmas was nice, but to have this bigger threat a few days out this year is pretty cool as well.

Hard to argue with these stats. https://www.wtol.com/article/weather/climate-friday/white-christmas-chances-on-the-rise-for-2022-climate-change-impacts/512-6776cb3a-ea20-4fd5-bc12-b25b19c6b080

What? That looks totally normal to me....

Still think the low ends up a bit further east looking at the EPS Low cluster. Regardless we all cash in for some pre-christmas magic

The mid Ohio folks are always stuck between an aps runner or a cutter. Ya'll need a west to east bowling ball patter. This one is a nail biter for you.

I know I speak for most here when I say I don't want to see this solution hold day after day only to have it fall apart within 2 days. Not saying it will, but I feel like that has been the trend over the years.

CAD will also = Sun Shine which has been absent lately.

If we can just get something special to come in on the front end of this, we'll be golden!

Agreed! The professional insight, and pause, these guys offer is greatly appreciated.

I can't believe how depressed I get with this crappy pattern. It's like part of me is still a kid.

The only way I'll forgive this cluster #$%@ of a pattern is if we get buried Christmas Week, otherwise I'm giving up on this shitty start to the Winter.... One month down 2 to go I guess. Where the hell is the banter thread! It's never been needed more sub forum wide.

Holy crap! You weren't kidding. If I recall correctly, 2013-2014 started in a similar way. Cold was forecast then it kind of took it's time a bit, and then WHAM! November of that year had a few cold out breaks around Thanksgiving, then It was up and down with a descent snow in early December before it got epic around the holidays. We shall see..

I always thought it was cool how Grand Rapids does an extended prelude! Actually starting to get a bit excited, considering my state of mind at this time last year, staring down the barrel of december torch. "Change to colder follow next big storm This is where it gets interesting. Due to the MJO going into Phase 8, which is cold for a large part of the central and northern CONUS we are likely to get back into the deep freeze after the 6th of December. This is well supported by the ensembles of both the GFS and ECWMF. In fact the latest model runs show part of the northern Midwest into Montana with a 5 day departure from normal over 20 degrees below normal! We will need to watch this closely, this could have significant impacts on our area."

Was literally staring at the radar as the dry slot slide 10 miles to my SE and I was square in some nice deformation thinking the exact same thing. Feel like I never get in the sweet spot, unless it's a rain storm.

Starting my first topic so maybe beginners luck will help us all out.... Seems like a lot of things(MJO, EPO, NAO, AO, etc.) are lining up for a cold and potentially snowy month. Let's see what happens!

Everything about this fall feels like December is gonna be rockin....Teleconnections to boot! I'd rather have this weather now and have things turn quickly in early to mid December.

12Z Euro kinda tosses our sub a bone...kinda The trough axis is sitting in an ideal spot for a minute

I love your insight but stay away, lol.

Clearly the best December I can remember with almost 20" on the ground for Christmas with cold weather. I'll take that over a solid Jan-March anytime.

John Dee's winter prognostication is supposed to come out tomorrow(10/26). Waiting in anticipation!

December 24-25, 2002. NW Ohio Christmas miracle. Great Topic and question, Hoosier!

Is it just me or is the CFS throwing some cold for Jan/Feb/March. I feel like in the past it's always torched that far out. Curious??