Frog Town
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Everything posted by Frog Town
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I'll take the Canadian 00z for $500, Alex!
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Looks like things quiet down and dry out for next week... See you all around the 16th for some more action.
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Wow! That is pretty exciting to look at...which is about all we'll do.
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Getting blasted in mid February, if it happens at all, is just nothing like getting it in the dead of winter. SOS
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I was thinking the same thing, but MIchigan Snowfreak talked me off the ledge.
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I know this Winter has different things going on than what we had in 2011-2012, but I have that same feeling of despair as I did back then. The only difference is, now I know what's coming. I feel like the models did the same bullshit back then, that they are doing this year. Even if we have a Blockbuster February, it's just not the same knowing that in a week or two, it's over.
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.5" would be exaggerating. Looking at the liquid equivalent, looks like confluence.
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How did this thing track compared to what was forecast. Did the southern shift at the last minute not actually verify?? Was it confluence as it got to SE Michigan??
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Yeah, everything pretty fizzled east of 69. Confluence or deep south convection?? Not sure but it sucked watching the returns vanish..
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Radar is really struggling along 80-90.
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January really starting to look good around these parts...Finally!
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Just getting started here in Toledo. Lots to go it seems. Thinking we do well on the very southern edge.
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Noticing the same southerly shift, again. Not gonna lie, I'd love to see this thing shift back south again.
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Pacific storm origin. Cold presses but just too late.
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Hahah.. I see where you're coming from. Sincerely think this ends up even south of me or over me but weaker. It just has that feel and we'll see in tonight's 0Z data. I think we are seeing hints of it in the Secondary that the models have been showing. We shall see.
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Denial is a River in Africa my friend....
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The SE hasn't ended and I suspect this things ends up sheared and weaker as the models ingest the Dakota High. Don't get your hopes up on the model output. This thing will become a mid Ohio special before you know. Don't ignore the trends.
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Thinking back to when the NAM picked up the current system at 4 days out, it was pretty spot on. Gives more credence IMO
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That definitely was misleading. The MJO nudge wasn't in reference to this system, but more for future reference with the mean trough and the release of the cold in general.
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Really gotta watch that High to the north. Models have been off all season with the cold air pressing. When it finally does happen, it's gonna be a game changer. Curious if the MJO will nudge it down a bit.
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At this point I'd want to be anywhere but in the sweet spot. With the exception of maybe Tennessee. Or Hell.
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I do better with this type of storm chasing stress than that of chasing shit that disappears. Tomorrow the GFS will be north and the Euro will be south lol.
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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion
Frog Town replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
You said it yourself. Time for everyone to your east to cash in a bit. You Iowa folk have had some great winters the past few years. Throw us a bone!! -
This thing just looks juiced on radar. Nice storms/heavy rain returns wrapping into the cold air. I like it, albeit short lived.
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12Z GFS looking hot! Funny how things are trending towards the Euro now. Definitely got that amped look again. Track will change a million times but good trend away from a strung out POS.
