Frog Town

Weird thing is, if you saw the GFS like that a week out, we'd be going nuts in the southern lakes. Up shot here is, many of us will finally get some sleep tonight.

We lost the ICON...LOL Upper Level Trough goes positive too fast leading to all this crap on the EURO/CMC/ICON. Ironically, it's typically the other way around leading to my area getting dry slotted with a strengthening storm.

From Cleveland's Weather office- Simultaneously, a surface low pressure will enter the Ohio Valley from the west and bring our next round of impactful weather. The track of the low and therefore higher QPF/snow amounts has continued to trend northward. With this forecast update, snowfall amounts Sunday afternoon through Monday have increased to 3-6 inches south of US-30 with the potential for upwards of 6 inches across the southernmost zones in our local forecast area. There still remains some uncertainty with the placement of the highest QPF so opted not to issue any headlines with this forecast update. Future shifts will continue to monitor trends with winter weather headlines possibly needed Sunday night through Monday.

This says it all right here. Guy is legit and great at pattern recognition. We Winter! https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistRossEllet

Who's ready for the Happy Hour 18Z GFS for the win!

Exactly!

Speaking more about the orientation of the snow band. That hints at more of a phase with the upper trough..

No shit! The NAM would be a game changer, and a major forecast buster for the Winter Storm Watches just issued.

You in central Ohio have a room for it to go north.

This is an outlier at this point.

You think this is just noise, or the starting of something for the southern lakes??

Welcome, but you and I are currently in a tug of war. Want this thing to come North a big.

Today!

At this point I'd even take a couple inches. I just don't want frozen tundra for the foreseeable future...

Could....this....be .....the.....beginning!

And this means??

The pattern yells cold, not the models. Look at analogs with this set up in the past. '77, '94, '14...

That's what I'd typically think, but with the TPV heading this way, I think things end up a bit more suppressed/pressure gradient/windier than normal. Every storm in 2013-14 ended up this way and we will have a very similar set-up(big picture wise) next weekend.

You definitely don't want to be in the jackpot at this time frame.

Starting a thread is like buying a lottery ticket. You just never really know what you're gunna get! However, with the Lottery currently over a Billion, a thread this January could be a big payout!

Just give it time! We've got the cold within 7 days now and it looks to last. The storms will do what they do but it looks better than it did in early DEC. Things are gonna look A LOT different around here come mid January.

It's nice to see our local offices mentioning what's been in LaLa land for weeks now. Beginning of a colder pattern change late in the period The entire long wave trough will lift out of the region on Sunday, cooling things down some. The cooldown for Sunday and Monday does not look to be too significant for this time of the year, except coming off of the 50 degree temps for the weekend. This is because we will be in between the two branches of the upper jet. We are looking at a more significant cool down that may begin as early as next Tuesday, and more likely just beyond. This is something that the long term model ensembles have been showing for quite a while. We will see another active southern stream system come out of the desert SW, and a stronger northern stream system diving in from the NW. Lots of details to be ironed out yet how the two branches will interact and phase with each other. The net result though looks to be a colder pattern as we enter the New Year. &&

It doesn't get good until hour 330...LOL. What is wrong with us.

No ZZZzzzzz's yet from you know who so we got that going for us.

This was yesterday's 12Z Euro eye candy for the east coast, lol. That would be reeaally nice!