This is the third latest 80 degree day on record in South Bend. The latest 80+ day is November 1st, done twice, when it hit 82 on November 1, 1950 and 80 on November 1, 1933.
The weather team at my station put together its annual "Forecasting the Winter" special yesterday.
They used previous weak La Nina winters following a strong El Nino to predict what we could see this winter.
They found what @michsnowfreakmentioned above: temps slightly above normal, with snowfall near to above normal.
Some interesting notes: Weak La Nina winters following strong El Nino winters (at least in South Bend) almost all had higher-than-normal snow totals in December. January and February had below normal snowfall. But then March and April (yuck) made up for it with above-average snow totals.
The wild card for this side of the lake is always lake-effect. Cold December winds and a warm lake should get things rocking.
Here's a link if you're interesting in watching: https://wsbt.com/news/local/forecasting-winter-with-wsbt-chief-meteorologist-cari-peugeot-2024-2025-snow-sleet-blizzard-precipitation-how-much-la-nina-lake-effect-temperatures-michigan-south-bend-mishawaka-indiana
Storms missed me to the north by about 10 miles Saturday night, I got split by two cells Sunday afternoon, but I did cash in on about .10" of rain from lake enhancement last night. Almost lost an inflatable pumpkin due to some 40 mph gusts but managed to make the save before it rolled into the street.
Sunny today and refreshingly crisp. We should get a few lake effect showers this afternoon.
We still have managed 30 mph gusts up here. It's just amazing how massive this storm is and how something so far to our south is still impacting weather here.
Very thankful these were weak tornadoes. The track for the St. Joseph County one was through a Meijer parking lot and across Main Street. If it were stronger and stayed on the ground a hospital was next followed by my workplace.
The South Bend Airport hit 93.9 today.
The HRRR and GFS have South Bend getting at or above 100 degrees tomorrow.
South Bend has only seen triple-digit hit on 63 days in recorded history. The last time was July 6th, 2012 when the mercury hit 102. (4,434 days ago!)
I'm not totally convinced we'll hit the century mark tomorrow... but it'll be worth watching!
Hit 90 here today too. Also an interesting tidbit from longtime South Bend meteorologist Bob Werner:
We’ve had only 0.85", less than 20% of normal rain since July 17th. That has produced a rainfall deficit of more than 4" during that time. That's the 4th driest time we've ever recorded for those 39 days, and the driest since 1920!
No significant chance of rain for at least several more days....
Confirmed tornado from earlier this week in Elkhart. Lots of trees toppled onto homes. No injuries or fatalities. This is only about a mile from where I grew up. Amazing to see virtually no damage outside of the tornado path... and tons of tree damage within this neigborhood.
Even though the line was losing some of its punch we still managed 40-50 mph winds IMBY. Damage across the area was pretty typical for a summer time MCS. Although there is a pretty large swath in Elkhart, IN that probably got hit by a down burst and/or small tornado. Lots of tree damage.