sbnwx85

I was thinking 4”-7” for Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan. We seem to be in the jackpot zone right now.

We snuck in a quick snow shower and added 0.1” of snow last night.

Worst run yet. ICON also more in line with GFS. Canadian still looks solid. I’ll bet Euro holds and it’ll be another American vs. foreign showdown.

We’re still four days out. A lot can happen.

Everything on the table. 18z Euro 00z GFS 00z Canadian 00z ICON

Lock in the 18z Euro.

18z GFS a little weaker too.

18z ICON was still amped although slightly weaker. Still a 8”-18” wallop for many. My area would have icing/sleet issues. GFS running now.

We have a glaze of ice and about a quarter inch of sleet. It’s transitioned to all freezing rain/drizzle now.

We’re getting the kitchen sink up here.

Mesoscale Discussion 0075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Indiana into far southern Michigan and northern Ohio Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 081746Z - 082245Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will gradually become more widespread across north/northeast Indiana and northern Ohio through the mid to late afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03 in/hour appear possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a swath of stratiform precipitation (with embedded convective elements) becoming established across north-central IN as isentropic ascent increases within the warm conveyor belt of an intensifying mid-level low. This trend is expected to continue through the afternoon hours as warm/moist advection increases amid strengthening 925-700 mb winds. This mid-level warm advection will reinforce a weak warm-nose aloft, and should promote mainly liquid hydrometeors near the surface. Although surface temperatures are currently near freezing across northern IN/OH, dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s suggest that wet-bulb cooling to below freezing is likely after the initial onset of precipitation. This trend is already being observed at a few locations across northern IN with some ASOS/AWOS and mPING reports of freezing rain noted over the past 30-60 minutes. Surface temperatures from the 12 UTC HREF members appear to be running 1-3 F too cold compared to 17 UTC observations, which suggests that freezing rainfall estimates from these members/HREF probabilities may be too bullish. However, more recent deterministic solutions (HRRR/RAP) have captured surface temperature trends well and depict freezing rain rates of around 0.03 in/hour. These solutions also suggest that freezing rain potential may be greatest across northwest to north-central OH through late afternoon with accumulations up to 0.1 - 0.25 inch possible.

Looks like more thunderstorms for the areas that got it Thursday night. Freezing rain should be here within the hour.

I didn’t see @A-L-E-Kreeling one in the way this winter has gone but look where we are now.

The powerhouse we’ve been waiting for.

Tomorrow, to me, has become another all ice event for at least the northern third of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Not a crazy ice storm but soundings on the HRRR and NAM show a freezing rain event and temps only in the mid to upper 20’s will make for very efficient icing. 0.10 to 0.20” seems likely with the most furthest east.

I want to believe.

And another miss south next week.

Very efficient icing conditions when it is raining. Got a nice glaze of ice on the way home tonight in a downpour. Seems like mostly freezing drizzle upstream. We’ll see what more substantial develops if anything.

It’s the most excitement I’ve had in weeks while keeping my pants on.

I know some of us hate it when we post OP runs but the 12z Euro is too good not to post.

Starting to spit on and off already. All liquid falling from the sky so far. Temp at 29.

To steal A-L-E-K's line.... call looking $$$

Hi-Res keep drying this thing out. So do the globals, but to a lesser extent. HRRR has me down to about 0.02" of ice. NAM at 0.01". IWX holding off on headlines until the morning. Expect a WWA even if it's just a glaze since even that can cause problems on the roads.

There's some potential on the snowy side of this weekend's system. We just need it about 100 miles south... generally speaking.

Tenth of an inch of ice seems like a solid bet. Someone will jackpot around two tenths. Then it all melts Thursday morning and we do it again Saturday.