Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Silent Hill level fog up here in Reisterstown.
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All you need to know is this, "Time will tell exactly how the weather transpires, but what is growing ever more certain is that this is no typical El Niño and nor will this be a typical winter season." Pretty clear this is an uphill battle.
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This El Nino ain't very El Nino
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63 degrees and the sound of lawn mowers outside.
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When you mean NA warmth, are you referring to above normal air temperatures?
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Looks like a correlation to Jan 10-15th is the dividing line to a stinko winter.
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Can you do this for the bottom 10 as well?
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Having a solid HP in Quebec like that helps too.
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Not really sure what you're trying to get at here. I love snow, I'm just grounded in reality down here.
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We already had mixed precip in the grids: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=ZFPLWX&e=201412010230
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By this time in 2009, we were looking at the first event, Dec 5th, and things were trending our way. It's the exact opposite just 14 years later. We bleed the wrong way 9.9/10 times. LWX AFD from 12/1/09: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLWX&e=200912012006
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All these above normal snowfall predictions are in trouble if things don't start changing quickly.
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Very La Nina-esque, warm/wet then cold/dry.
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But hey, CC is fake.
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This will be a year of lowered expectations. Getting climo will seem like a banner year.
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Kind of wonder if that's the sacrificial storm as we see things shuffle slowly towards a more favorable long wave pattern?
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The short wave responsible for the potential Wednesday event does not get over the upper air network until midday Monday, 12/4. We'll probably see things waffle until the 00z/12z runs on Monday. I know in the past that sometimes the GFS can sniff out a northern stream dominant system quick than the Euro. This event will be an important test case to see if one model is picking up on stuff earlier than the others.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
So long as it includes DCA, BWI, and IAD...sure. FWIW, 12z Euro has a weaker, more progressively tilted trough for next Wednesday's storm. It's an issue south of Mason-Dixon, but north of Rt. 30 would still see something. -
Trough on the 12z Euro is weaker and more progressive than the GFS. Canadian is, to my eyes, in between. Kind of interested to see what the UKMET has.
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Just want to get on the board. 2" - 4" is perfect.
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It's nice. Hope this isn't a head fake. We'll see how we're looking by Sunday night.
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Central PA Autumn 2023
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Unable to currently share an image, but the 12z GFS gives just the lower third of PA it's first legit shot of a light accumulating snow next Wednesday evening, 12/6. Several moving parts, but things shift for the better at 500mb over the past 24 hours. -
12z GFS op @ HR 153.
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Last year, 2022-2023, my COOP site RSTM2 recorded less than 12 nights below 25 degrees. We already have 4 this season.
