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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    First SVR...imagine the watch can't be far behind:
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Yea it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't. This is pretty meh today.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Yea it would be fitting to get a watch and nothing happen. Back to the classic DC severe fail.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    80% chance of a blue box https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0897.html
  6. Eskimo Joe
    I'll give SPC credit, they're looking to be 2/2 with the tornado watches this week in PA.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Storms will gust out if they are not able to maintain their updraft. This was evident yesterday with the cell that originated near New Market, traversed the Rt. 26 corridor and gusted out along I-795. In order for storm to maintain their updraft, they need to be continuously propagated whether by a front, self made cold pool or something else.
  8. Eskimo Joe
  9. Eskimo Joe
    A lot more debris clouds overhead slowing down the warming today...not sure anyone gets anything worth writing home about.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Nope...lol Check out [at]iembot_lwx on Twitter
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Trees down in the Gamber and Sykesville area per Carroll scanner.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Yea. All of a sudden the CU field went poof at work too. Wonder if there's some subsidence or something.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0884.html
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Yea, it probably won't be available until 2:30 at the earliest.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Wonder if they're waiting on the 18z RAOB before making a call on a watch?
  16. Eskimo Joe
    I know that, I was referring to the convective outlook placement prior to the event.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    We always win when LWX / SPC are playing catch up, whether it's winter or summer.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Correct. Source: https://www.facebook.com/SHARPpy.wx/posts/tutorial-how-to-tell-if-your-sounding-is-convectively-contaminatedwith-spring-co/1592950307629254/
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Yoda, take solace in knowing that we fail 9.99/10 times and on our biggest day, Derecho 2012, SPC didn't even have us in a SLGT until a few hours before the event.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Trifecta for the big three hitting 90°.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    RIP, IAD to Mappy tomorrow on the 12z NAMNEST at HR 34 -> 36
  22. Eskimo Joe
    It would be peak DC to be in an ENH and miss everything.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Would tend to agree with you. The SFC - 3km heliticty values are far more impressive north of Mason-Dixon down into the upper Delaware Bay region.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Correct on all accounts. The 00z IAD sounding prior to the 2012 derecho had an 850 temp of +24. the science officer at LWX did a quick analysis and found that 850 temps only occurred 6 times beforehand.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Red Box for PA and Cecil County until 00z...
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