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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Thanks. Might be some low topped gusty stuff with minimal lightning? Whats shear looking like?
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Am mobile, what the CAPE, lapse rates and supercell composite like in dc?
  3. Eskimo Joe
    New event. Severe Thunderstorm Watch from 5/23/2019 1:02 PM to 8:00 PM EDT for Montgomery County, MD, Carroll County, MD. More information.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    No you're just learning to be cautious.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    I mean, the setup is there but it's super conditional today on all the dominoes falling in symphony. I'm all but out on this, but there might he one or two rogue cells down this way where someone jackpots.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Yes, we need rain...too muc pollen in the air!
  7. Eskimo Joe
    It's not happening here today.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    The LWX forecast area averages 3 Enhanced Risks per year and 1 Moderate Risk per 3 years.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    You have to update your GR AE and GR Level 3 to the latest version. This is accomplished by going to www (dot) grlevelx (dot) com and then re-downloading the program. Your license key and settings should be saved. Gibson Ridge has a sizeable flaw, IMO, in that that their software programs do not have an option to download and install the latest updates. Hope this helps!
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Cue the old adages: ARW = Always Really Wet or Always Really Wild NMM = Not Much Moisture
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Tomorrow is shaping up to be a classic severe weather outbreak for PA and NY. You have robust surface heating combined with a dynamic front...terrain aided updrafts could produce some storms pushing classic supercells. I wouldn't be shocked to see a DY1 Moderate risk for parts of PA and NY tomorrow if things come together in the morning.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    I look at weather through the lens of my profession. If I'm interested in an event, it means I'll be working in the EOC. To get excited about something more than 30 to 48 hours out is foolhardy to me in my old age.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Indeed. The mid level lapse rates are key because it helps sustain the updrafts and therein overcomes the local features (terrain, subtle bay or sea breeze boundary). All of our big events had a strong EML and respectable mid level lapse rates or remnant tropical system (Isabel in 2003, Ivan in 2004).
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Saw a report and pics from Clear Spring, MD of 1.75" hail from that cell. This area can get big hailers when there's a good aid to the updraft. Interestingly enough, that was the same cell which got it's act together and dropped an EF-1 tornado in Lancaster County, PA (injuring 3 people).
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Looks pretty meh to me, but weather in general is less and less interesting to me with each passing season. We haven't had a good storm since the derecho.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Big mts. out there aiding updrafts. Looks like a US15 and points west kind of day. Metro areas probably stay dry.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Could be a sneaky severe day today. Good CAPE and some shear.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    The Frederick cell is about to transverse it's own outflow boundary and the bay breeze pushing west. Wonder if that jazzes it back up.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Likely HAARP and wind turbines...major gov interference! /chuck
  20. Eskimo Joe
    How often do you see a box in a marginal risk?
  21. Eskimo Joe
    If you look at the visible loop, there appears to be some low level boundary sitting NW -> SE on the VA side of the Potomac River.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Pity meso to our SW. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0514.html
  23. Eskimo Joe
    As usual, the HRRR is HRRRible.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Over the past 30 min or so we've gained some hazy sun in Gaithersburg and the winds aren't ripping out of the SE anymore. Maybe the front crawls north to a line along I-70 to Dover?
  25. Eskimo Joe
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